Phillies Baseball

2007-12-12T08:39:00.000-05:00

So I've been in Australia the past four months...did I miss anything good?

Did Andy Ashby Clear Waivers?

2007-08-12T15:31:00.000-04:00

If Adam Eaton starts another game this year for the Phillies (and he will, of course), then it's pretty clear to me that this organization has no idea of what it takes to field a team that can pick up the extra handful of wins necessary in order to go from a squad that is "competitive, exciting, and likable (all great things, by the way), but with just enough deficiencies to miss out on the wild card in the final week yet again" to a team with a historically awesome offensive attack and just enough non-horrible pitching to play some meaningful baseball games into October.

I don't love relying solely on ERA to make a point (we've evolved past that), but I think Eaton's horrible ERA serves as a simple way to get across the basic premise of the post: Adam Eaton stinks at pitching right now.

Eaton in 2007 (as of 8/11): 94 earned runs allowed in 133 innings pitched - 6.36 ERA

The Phillies pitching staff in 2007: 545 earned runs allowed in 1042 innings pitched- 4.71 ERA

According to Baseball Prospectus, the average pitcher in the National League has an ERA of 4.32. This doesn't account for starters vs. relievers and all kinds of other important variables, but, again, it's simple and I'm lazy so it will have to do for now.

If we completely eliminated Adam Eaton from the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies, the team ERA would drop from 4.71 to 4.46. If Eaton was replaced by a hypothetical league average pitcher, the team ERA would drop from 4.71 to 4.44. By the way, starters who fit the statistical mold of "league average pitcher" based solely on ERA (important caveat) and our self-imposed innings pitched quota (around the 133 Eaton has pitched) include Wandy Rodriguez (4.34 ERA, 139 IP), Jarrod Washburn (4.30, 142.1), Carlos Silva (4.30, 150.2), and James Shields (4.32, 164.7) - no real point to naming names other than to establish some frame of reference.

Check out this list of starting pitchers...or occasional starting pitchers: Cliff Lee, Rick Vanden Hurk, Wes Obermueller, Rob Tejeda, Horacio Ramirez, Vicente Padilla, Jose Contreras, Jae Seo, and Casey Fossum.

Those nine men are the only pitchers in baseball with lower VORPs lower than Adam Eaton's -10.4 (minimum 50 IP).

If Adam Eaton starts another game this year for the Phillies (and he will, of course), then it's pretty clear to me that this organization exists solely to make enough idiotic decisions that all but force me to dust off this old web address and vent to an audience of a dozen loyal (crazy?) readers.

By the way, the team has been playing great baseball lately and I'm very optimistic about their postseason chances at this point. At the very least, they've had a string of some of the most entertaining games I've seen in a long while. So excuse the sporadic nature of my posting, excuse the negativity of this particular post, and join me in enjoying a team handicapped by all kinds of injuries as they make yet another push for the postseason.

I like to end on a positive note when I can. Go Phillies.

2007-07-22T23:11:00.001-04:00

Damn, this team can really hit.

Trade Rumor

2007-07-10T19:41:00.000-04:00

Latest rumor has Kyle Lohse and David Weathers coming over from Cincinnati for a package of prospects to patch the Phillies holes in the rotation and back of the bullpen, respectively. This one appears to have legs, but who the heck knows...

.500

2007-07-09T23:18:00.000-04:00

If you haven't seen it yet, do yourself a favor and check it out. I don't know how long any one link will last what with the YouTube police going crazy after MLB broadcasts, so hopefully you'll get a chance to watch the tarp video (or one of the other tribute videos already popping up) soon.

Question

2007-06-29T10:46:00.000-04:00

Ryan Howard is the fastest man to ever play baseball to hit 100 homeruns in the major leagues. The man hit 100 homers faster than anybody else in the history of the sport and it's not even close...unless you consider a 60 game difference close. Damn...Howard is a tremendous power hitter, no doubt about it. As #100 sailed over the batter's eye in center, I got to thinking about Howard's future. Ryan Howard is 27 years old.

How many homeruns does he finish his career with? Any guesses?

Joe Savery 2.0

2007-06-07T18:48:00.000-04:00

I love the pick of Savery and it makes perfect sense to make comparisons between this year's first rounder and the Cole Hamels/Kyle Drabek duo.

As I'm sure 98% of my reading public knows, I follow all four major sports teams in Philly pretty closely. When you watch enough sports and obsess about it like so many Philly sports fans do, it gets easy to spot a well run organization from an incompetent one. It's easy to make the comparison between the well-oiled machine that is the Philadelphia Eagles front office/ownership group and the rusty outdated model of the Phillies, but it works in almost all areas when considering how the two teams are run. With one exception, of course - the way the two teams approach drafting.

To their credit, the Phillies have approached the past few drafts with Joe Banner's draft mantra in mind - value, value, value. Picking in the second half of the first round year after year is a real challenge for any pro sports franchise, and the best way to succeed is by thinking outside the box and taking calculated gambles on talented players sliding down the board. You don't get such obvious talents as Cole Hamels and Kyle Drabek where the Phillies got them without good reason; Hamels fell due to injury concerns and Drabek slipped due to worries about his bad makeup. Savery's arm is major league quality, but it was no surprise to see him slip in the draft because of the questions concerning his recovery from surgery to remove a bone growth from his labrum.

Joe Savery is a very good baseball player. Here are some of the basics...

Close to major league ready? I'd let him take the rest of 2007 off after he finishes up with Rice, then start him in Lakewood or Clearwater next year depending on how he progresses in the offseason. It's no stretch to say that if he's healthy, he could be in the big league rotation by the end of the 2009 season. I'll say that a timetable like that is worth of a check. Check.

Good size? 6-3, 215? Check.

Lefthanded? I'm a sucker for young lefties, you can really never have enough. Check.

Athletic? Savery gets high marks across the board for his athleticism and would have been a legit prospect as a first baseman with pop even if he didn't pitch (though obviously not a first rounder). Check.

His velocity was down after the surgery, but he has been quoted as saying he's had his fastball clocked in the mid-9os again as his arm has rounded back into shape. Prior to the injury, he sat 91-93 MPH and could touch the mid-90s; a return to that velocity makes him a heck of a lot more interesting. He also has a plus-plus changeup (and thus the comparison to Hamels) that really is a special pitch and a curveball that rates a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale (pretty damn good). A three-pitch mix like that with the potential to command all three for consistent strikes? I'm excited.

So now that I've built Savery up into this great pitching prospect, how in the world did he fall to 19th overall? Not only that, but why do some fans I've already heard from consider selecting him at 19 an ugly overdraft? What's his flaw? Broken arm in high school like Hamels? Attitude problems like Drabek? To put it simply: injuries, injuries, injuries. He's damaged goods. He's a pitcher from Rice, a school with a weak recent history of protecting their most talented arms. That's the argument against, but take a deep breath - I have good news.

His combination of fastball-changeup-curveball does not portend future arm woes, especially the way he emphasizes the use of his fastball and change. His mechanics are a thing of beauty, so pretty that it is hard to imagine his easily repeatable delivery putting any additional undue stress on his arm.

I know this all sounds overwhelmingly positive, but if you can't be positive on draft day when can you be? Savery isn't the perfect pitching prospect, but he's got enough positives to be plenty excited that he is now a member of the organization...or will be when he gets signed.

Joe Savery

2007-06-07T16:35:00.000-04:00

Joe Savery, lefthanded pitcher from Rice, is the Phillies first round pick in 2007. I like the pick. A lot. I'll elaborate later, but pick 37 is quickly approaching. It figures that the Phillies will look towards the high school ranks, probably hoping to grab the top hitter left on their board. Who is still out there? Tons of fun names to consider, here's a long list of guys that I ought to condense but won't because I'm lazy.

Also, my goal this year is to shadow draft for all of the Phillies picks - with my number one pick, I take RHSP Michael Main. Just for fun.

Matt Harvey
Josh Smoker
Kyle Blair

Brett Cecil
Todd Frazier
Julio Borbon
Matt Mangini
Sean Doolittle
Josh Donaldson
Mitch Canham
Kyle Russell

Michael Burgess
Yasmani Grandal
Kentrail Davis
Travis d'Arnaud
Justin Jackson

Josh Horton
Neil Ramirez
Kellen Kulbacki
Cole St. Clair
Nevin Griffith
Will Middlebrooks
Jon Gilmore
Jon Lucroy
Angel Morales

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the Clock

2007-06-07T15:47:00.000-04:00

YES - Rick Porcello (this would take huge guts on the part of management due to the rumored 10 million dollar bonus Scott Boras seeks, but it would be a move with a gigantic potential payout)

YES - Michael Main (Main has long been one of my favorite high school arms, high risk/high reward kind of player but worth the gamble to me)

YES - Josh Smoker (high school guy who knows how to pitch, good value for the spot)

NO - Julio Borbon (collegiate centerfielder who profiles as a leadoff man with no power and a noodle arm...pass)

NO - Mike Burgess (toolsy high school outfielder...maybe in the supplemental if they love the guy, but please not at 19)

Who will it be?

Updated Board

2007-06-07T15:06:00.000-04:00

6 picks between now and the Phillies. Here's who is left on my personal reordered board:

RHSP - Rick Porcello
OF - Jason Heyward
C - Devin Mesoraco
RHSP - Michael Main
RHSP - Matt Harvey
3B - Kevin Ahrens
RHSP - Blake Beavan

Porcello is the dream, but his signability could quickly turn him into a nightmare; Heyward needs to get by the Braves at 14; Mesoraco and Ahrens would both instantly become the top hitting prospect in the system; Main, Harvey, Beavan...take your pick out of the righthanded pitcher grab bag.

I'm cautiously optimistic at this point.

UPDATE (3:30 PM):

Heyward did not get by the Braves at 14. The updated big board:

RHSP - Rick Porcello
C - Devin Mesoraco
RHSP - Michael Main
RHSP - Matt Harvey
3B - Kevin Ahrens
RHSP - Blake Beavan
LHSP - Josh Smoker
3B/OF - Todd Frazier

Ahrens to the Reds has been talked about for weeks, but we'll see about that shortly. Mesoraco is the most realistic player to hope for at this point, but one of the high school arms (again, take your pick between Main, Harvey, Beavan, and Smoker) looms large. I remain cautiously optimistic...just say NO to Julio Borbon and Michael Burgess.

UPDATE (3:40):

Not a good couple of picks for the Phillies - Mesoraco to the Reds and Ahrens to the Blue Jays. I think it probably comes down to this question at this point - which high school arm do the Phillies like best at this point?

Running Draft Day Commentary

2007-06-07T14:16:00.000-04:00

David Price, lefthander from Vanderbilt, gone to Tampa at pick number one. This one was a no-brainer as Price is everything you want out of baseball prospect - mid-90s fastball, plus slider, developing change, plus command of all three pitches, superb makeup, great frame, dominance at collegiate and U.S. national team level, he's not a Boras client...the list goes on, but it's almost all overwhelmingly positive stuff. We've said it for years now, but watch out for Tampa - that's a franchise on the rise.

Kansas City is on the clock

Mike Moustakas to Kansas City, as reported by Jim Callis earlier in the day. Two picks in, two picks predicted by the experts (and by experts I pretty much just mean Callis). I'm not sure I buy Moustakas as the second most talented guy in this draft, in fact I know I don't, but Dayton Moore knows what he's doing in KC so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

The Cubs are on the clock...Jarrod Parker? Josh Vitters?

Great pick by the Cubs, Josh Vitters is a heck of a player. Vitters continuously proved himself against high end competition in high school and during the showcase season. Now what? Pittsburgh is on the clock and it's really not clear what direction they are leaning. They could cause a major shakeup by nabbing Devin Mesoraco here. If not him, maybe Ross Detwiler?

Dan Moskos to the Pirates...interesting. Moskos switched from the bullpen to the rotation near the end of the season for Clemson, but his future is at the back of a big league pen someday - his stuff plays much better that way. Whenever the Pirates grab a pitcher, you can't help but get nervous...their track record with keeping guys healthy is pitiful. Moskos represents the first player drafted that I've seen in person, so that's exciting...I'll see if I get dig up my old notes on him.

Next up is the Orioles, another team that could really shake things up in this draft. Detwiler is the safest choice on the board, but they could really surprise some people by going after one of the top talents that have slipped (i.e. Wieters)...

Wieters to Baltimore, sensational pick. I saw Wieters play in a three game set up at Boston College during his sophomore year and it was clear he was the best player on the field by a long shot. Unlike a lot of the talking heads out there, I have zero doubt that Wieters can stick behind the plate - he excels in all phases of the game defensively, with his rocket arm standing out as a plus plus tool. At the plate, his bat is good enough to play anywhere on the field.

I think Matt Wieters is the best player in the draft this year.

I also think the Nationals wanted him at pick six. What now for Washington? Aumont? Porcello in a shocker?

Ross Detwiler to the Nationals at pick six. Detwiler is not a name I had on the radar for the Nats, but he makes a lot of sense in hindsight (especially with Wieters off the board)...the Nats have a gaping hole in their big league rotation and the convergence of need and Detwiler's sheer talent made this pick a good one. I love that the biggest knock on Detwiler is his weight - he's too damn thin (6-4, 180).

Milwaukee at seven is fascinating to me. The rich have a chance to get a whole lot richer here. With the infield set (Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun) for the next half decade, they can afford to look at pitching first and foremost. Or if they look offense, they could surprise with Mesocaro or Jason Heyward. If they stick with pitching, they'd be wise to snap up Jarrod Parker.

First draft shocker here - Milwaukee takes Matt LaPorta at seven. I can't wait to hear the reasoning behind that one because I'm stumped.

Colorado grabbed college closer Casey Weathers at pick eight. This pick was speculated by many because the Rockies wanted to keep Weathers away from the Giants and Padres...weird rationale for picking a guy and I'm sure there is way more to it than that, but interesting all the same.

Arizona picking Jarrod Parker is the example of the rich getting richer route that I thought the Brewers would take. Parker may be the top high school pitcher in this draft, great value at nine.

Madison Bumgarner to the Giants with their first of three first round picks. Now I've got 20% of the top ten picks right, nailing the bookends at 1 and 10. Paaaaathetic. Time to knock this off for a bit and focus more on the Phillies upcoming pick at 19.

Draft Day 2.0

2007-06-07T13:18:00.000-04:00

The Phillies pick 7 times in the first five rounds of the draft. The picks are:

Round 01A (#0019)
Round 01B (#0037)
Round 02 (#0083)
Round 03A (#0107)
Round 03B (#0113)
Round 04 (#0143)
Round 05 (#0173)

We'll focus on the club's first pick for now, pick number 19. I'd be more than happy with a top 19 board that looked a little something like this:

David Price
Matt Wieters
Josh Vitters
Rick Porcello
Mike Moustakas
Jason Heyward
Ross Detwiler
Matt Harvey
Blake Beavan
Michael Main
Madison Bumgarner
Devin Mesoraco
Matt Dominguez
Jarrod Parker
Kevin Ahrens
Phillippe Aumont

Those are the top 16 most talented guys as I see them at this point and I would be thrilled if the Phillies drafted any of them. The guys at the top don't have much of a realistic chance of being there at 19, but you never know. Realistically, here's the best case scenario for the Phillies first pick, depending on what you'd like to see them do:

If you want a catcher, pray for Mesoraco to fall.

If you want a third baseman, Dominguez and Ahrens are the guys you should hope slip.

If high school arms are your fancy, you've got plenty to choose from. Harvey, Beavan, Main, Bumgarner, or Aumont all have a shot at being there.

If you are a big dreamer, then you are still holding out hope for Wieters (C), Porcello (RHSP), or Heyward (OF) dropping down the board.

There's a group of other players that intrigue me enough to be in the discussion at 19. They are:

Beau Mills
Josh Smoker
Dan Moskos
Andrew Brackman
Todd Frazier
Chris Withrow
Kyle Blair

7 more names that I wouldn't hate at 19 - Mills is a hitter, but profiles best as a 1B in the pros; Smoker is a personal favorite who gets high marks for his "pitchability;" Moskos could be a quick riser as a near-ready relief prospect; Brackman has dropped like a stone in recent weeks and would be a major project; Frazier is another favorite who can hit a ton and should settle in nicely at either 3B or a corner outfield spot; Withrow and Blair are high school arms long on potential.

This should be fun.

Draft Day

2007-06-07T11:32:00.000-04:00

Playoff baseball. I know October is still four months away, but the last two games against the Mets in Queens had as close to a playoff atmosphere in June that a fan could ask for. I know I'm forgetting plenty of great games from early on in the year, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that the best three games of the season have occurred over the span of the last four days - Shane Victorino's walkoff against San Fran, the 11th inning win to start the series against the real team to beat, and last night's extremely tense Jimmy Rollins led takeover of a ballgame. Lucky for me, I was at two of the three game (Sunday and Tuesday) so my mood concerning the ballclub is pretty upbeat these days.

And now for something totally different. One of the reasons this site has gone quiet for such long stretches over the past six months finally comes to a head this afternoon at 2 PM on ESPN2 - the MLB draft is finally here. I've spent a good chunk of my free time working on compiling information on prospective draftees, going to college and high school games across the country, and talking to those in the know about the rising and falling talent in the amateur ranks. There is really no point doing a mock draft considering Jim Callis is the best in the business (I love Baseball Prospectus as much as the next guy, but trust the people who cover the draft all year long - Baseball America and PG Crosschecker lap the field when it comes to prospects/amateurs), but here's my take based on all I've read, heard, and inferred - enjoy:

1. Tampa - LHSP David Price
2. Kansas City - 3B Josh Vitters
3. Chicago (NL) - RHSP Jarrod Parker
4. Pittsburgh - C Devin Mesoraco
5. Baltimore - LHSP Ross Detwiler
6. Washington - C Matt Wieters
7. Milwaukee - UT Mike Moustakas
8. Colorado - LHRP Dan Moskos
9. Arizona - RHSP Phillippe Aumont
10. San Francisco - LHSP Madison Bumgarner
11. Seattle - LHSP Nick Schmidt
12. Florida - CF Julio Borbon
13. Cleveland - RHSP Blake Beavan
14. Atlanta - OF Jason Heyward
15. Cincinnati - 3B Kevin Ahrens
16. Toronto - 3B Matt Dominguez
17. Texas - RHSP Rick Porcello
18. St. Louis - OF Kyle Russell
19. Philadelphia - RHSP Michael Main
20. Los Angeles - RHSP Matt Harvey
21. Toronto - C J.P. Arencibia
22. San Francisco - 1B Beau Mills
23. San Diego - 3B/OF Todd Frazier
24. Texas - RHSP Chris Withrow
25. Chicago (AL) - SS Justin Jackson
26. Oakland - 1B Matt LaPorta
27. Detroit - RHSP Andrew Brackman
28. Minnesota - OF Michael Burgess
29. San Francisco - SS Pete Kozma
30. New York (AL) - LHSP Joe Savery

There are some things I like about that mock and some things I don't. I still have no clue where Wieters will wind up, I can't imagine Heyward and Mills falling that far, and slotting in all of the high school arms is an exercise in futility. I do think some of the picks are logical (notably Borbon, Frazier, and Savery), but where some of the top end talent (Wieters and Porcello) could change the complexion of the draft in a hurry.

Fire Rod Barajas

2007-05-24T08:32:00.000-04:00

It's 8 in the morning and I've got to go to work. If the man on the right is not released by the time I get home this afternoon, I'm going to be sorely disappointed. Last night's game might have been one of the worst wins in Phillies history; it certainly featured the most painful to watch half inning of Phillies baseball since the top of the ninth against Houston a few years back (Bell error, Biggio homer, Wagner implosion). At least they won the game, right? Right???

15-19

2007-05-11T11:16:00.000-04:00

First things first, the answer to the question wondering what happened to Phillies minor league pitcher Derek Griffith. From Lancasteronline.com:

Derek Griffith, a lefty who threw two scoreless innings for the Barnstormers in spring training, is expected to join the team today and is scheduled to pitch the second game of the doubleheader at Long Island on Saturday. Griffith was released by Clearwater (the Phillies Class A affiliate) last month.

Griffith's last game in the Phillies organization was April 17th. He had pitched 7.1 scoreless innings with Clearwater (High A) out of the bullpen this year, but I guess the Phillies didn't see much of a future out of a 24-year old still in A ball. Hopefully, Griffith pitches well enough for Lancaster to catch the eye of another big league organization down the line.

I always appreciate any questions, comments, or concerns and I do my best to respond to everyone, so keep at it. With that taken care of, I'd like to announce a bit of history here on the site - today is the first day I've ever posted from a desktop computer. Pretty exciting stuff, I know - the assassination of Kennedy, the Challenger disaster, first post from a desktop...those are all moments that people can't help but remember where they were when they happened. Anyway, I did have a point in there somewhere...give me a minute, it'll come. Ah yeah, it's just a lame preemptive excuse in case updates are sporadic in the future - desktops are a whole lot less convenient than laptops. It's a cop-out, but if you've read the site regularly then you know that's just how I operate.

Now with that taken care of, we can talk about the Phillies. After dropping 2 of 3 in Arizona and 6 of 10 on the past road trip, they return to South Philadelphia with a record of 15-19, 4 games under .500. Before Ryan Howard's pinch-hit grand slam, the case could have been made that the most exciting part of watching non-Cole Hamels Phillies baseball of late has been Abe Nunez. Nunez has been public enemy number one around these parts since signing before last season, but he is currently putting up his best stretch of baseball as a major leaguer - a fact that is both a testament to his strong recent play (7 for his last 15, with 3 doubles...plus the usual outstanding defense at third) and his horribly below average big league career (his 2007 OPS+ of 87 is the best of his career...ouch). Nunez has outhit fellow third baseman Wes Helms this year and is unquestionably the better option in the field. It would be foolish to expect Helms to continue to lack both power and patience at the plate, but it's hard to argue with the notion that Nunez should be getting more starts now while he's going good at the plate - especially on days a groundball pitcher (Jon Lieber, Cole Hamels, maybe Adam Eaton) takes the mound.

Cole Hamels vs Rich Hill tonight in yet another exciting matchup between two young pitchers.

14-17

2007-05-07T16:07:00.000-04:00

In between coverage of the Hank Aaron/Barry Bonds "controversy," Willie Mays' 76th birthday celebration, and Roger Clemens returning to baseball, they played a baseball game last night on ESPN. It wasn't a bad game either: Phillies 8 - Giants 5

Game notes follow...

*** Tim Lincecum got hit around a bit, but I'd still call his debut a success for San Fransisco. I consider that a pretty interesting statement, the more I think about it. It reminds me of a quick back and forth I had with somebody in one of my fantasy leagues about Billy Butler. I commented that Butler reminded me a ton of a young Manny Ramirez (a tad hyperbolic, maybe, and a huge thing to say about a 21-year old, but a comparison worth talking about, I think) and a fellow owner responded by talking about Butler's 4-12 start at the plate not being all that reminiscent of a young Manny. I guess I honestly don't know how to respond to something like that - if you want to judge a young player strictly on early results, you're putting unnecessary limits on yourself as a baseball fan. Lincecum's results weren't there in his first start, but his stuff looked good - the fastball had a ton of velocity (95-97 MPH) and movement, and his curve is already a plus pitch. A top-3 NL offense hit him around in his first major league start on national television...the sky is not falling.

*** When the Giants starter went to the plate for the first time since high school, my only thought was this: Tim Lincecum = Henry Rowengartner

*** My other player comp from the game: Vinnie Chulk, Giants reliever = Travis Lee, big loser...they could be brothers, right?

*** Cole Hamels was getting squeezed in the first inning - he threw four strikes to Ray Durham (2 called balls) and appeared to have Pedro Feliz struck out on a perfectly placed changeup. He also got no help in the first from Wes Helms, the freaking statue masquerading as a big league third baseman. Hamels looked pissed off as he headed into the dugout and I thought for sure that the one run he allowed in the first was going to be all he'd give up on the night. I was wrong, but the young lefty still pitched brilliantly.

*** Hamels went into last night's start 20th in baseball in Baseball Prospectus' pitcher abuse points. Then he threw 118 pitches, his 4th category 3 start out of 7 overall. This isn't necessarily cause to freak out quite yet, but the Phillies should wise up and start being more careful with their young ace.

*** Joe Morgan, a guy that I have ripped countless times in this space, had a decent point when he brought up Ryan Howard's change in batting stance this year. I'm no hitting coach and I won't pretend to be, but it seemed like Howard had an uncanny ability to let the ball get as deep on him as possible during his hottest stretches in 2006. Howard would wait, wait, wait...and then hit the hell out of the ball just when it looked like the pitch was about to find it's final destination in the catcher's mitt past him. I'm not 100% sure if there's anything to all that, but it's a theory that jives with Howard's crazy success hitting the ball with authority to left and center field - you need to be able to wait on the ball to hit it the other way, right? Anyway, Joe Morgan's observation is that Howard is setting his feet unnecessarily early thus locking himself into swinging earlier than he ought to. Howard has enough sheer natural talent to delay locking his feet in as late as possible. When he starts doing this again, we should see more of the dead center field shots that Howard hit in the third inning of last night's game.

*** I don't understand why Rod Barajas has been granted the role of Cole Hamels' personal catcher. I know Barajas has a great reputation when it comes to dealing with pitchers and I know a lot goes on behind the scenes with regard to the pitcher-catcher relationship that we are not privy to, but I also know that I hate the way Barajas has called Hamels last few starts. You need three good pitches to succeed as a big league starter and lately Hamels curveball has been ignored - as good as his fastball/changeup combo has been, he's going to need to further develop that curve if he is to become the pitcher we all expect him to be. No need to go crazy and move completely away with what has worked so beautifully thus far, but I still think that it will be hugely beneficial in the long run if hitters are made well aware of the curve as a weapon.

*** Speaking of Barajas, he still stinks, but his plate discipline this year has been a pleasant surprise - the Phillies multi-million dollar backup catcher is well on his way to topping his career high of 26 walks with 9 already this season. I have no idea why I threw that in there, just felt like saying something nice about Rod...it's a nice change of pace from continually knocking the poor guy. Rod, if you are reading (and you know he is)...it's not you that I'm mad at, I know you are trying your best; it's management's fault for signing you, I'm mad at them and maybe sometimes I take it out on you. Nothing personal, big man.

*** Michael Bourn had his best appearance of the year - two steals and a heads up jaunt home on a grounder to shortstop. I got this text message from a friend after Bourn scored: "bourn is a speedy fucker." Just about says it all, right?

*** Amazing fact that completely slipped under my radar: Cole Hamels is sixth all time in strikeouts spanning the first 30 starts of a pitcher's career since 1900. I knew he was awesome, but I didn't realize how historically fantastic he's been so far.

There's more to say (Shane Victorino's hilarious rundown, Freddy Garcia's hilarious injury, other hilarious things that I'm sure happened but I can't recollect)...but it's time to wrap things up. Phillies go to Arizona next, should be fun.

Phillies @ Giants - May 6, 2007

2007-05-06T19:45:00.000-04:00

This site has gone far too long without an update for all kinds of reasons, and for that I apologize. To make it up to my adoring public, I present you the most intriguing pitching matchup of the season thus far (and, yes, this is coming from somebody who actually attended the Felix Hernandez-Daisuke Matsuzaka start at Fenway)...prepare yourself for tonight's epic battle between Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum. Every time that Cole Hamels takes the mound, it's a special occasion...but to oppose Tim Lincecum in his first ever major league start...that's special. And you know it's special when I can't write a coherent sentence without busting out the ellipses...I love ellipses, they are the perfect writing tool of the lazy man.

If you don't know about Lincecum yet (and you should), here's the quickest possible breakdown I can write 10 minutes before the game:

His junior year line at the University of Washington: 125.1 IP 75 H 63 BB 199 K
His AAA line this year at Fresno: 31 IP 12 H 11 BB 46 K
His listed height and weight: 5'10, 160 lb.

The guy is a physical marvel, there's really no getting around it. I have no idea how his career is going to shake out, he truly is a one of a kind prospect - I can't think of a single comparison for him that I think is legit. Watch him throw and make your own conclusions.

To end on a positive note...as excited as I am to watch Lincecum pitch, I'm more excited for Hamels. Lincecum may be the hot new young starting pitcher, but it wasn't so long ago (in fact, almost exactly a year ago if memory serves...wow, all kind of caveats in that sentence...that's what you get when I don't feel like looking something up) that Cole Hamels was the hot new young starting pitcher in the NL. I know the Phils are facing a rookie pitcher tonight, but I've got the weird feeling that tonight's game could be big - the kind of game that can turn a season around. Just a feeling though...this post could look awfully stupid in the morning.

4-11

2007-04-21T18:16:00.000-04:00

I've had a hard time mustering up the energy to post my game notes detailing such depressing contests...last night's loss to Cincinnati taking the cake as the latest affront to good baseball put forth by this team. In staying away, however, I've missed out on the opportunity to comment on the big news that the team has generated in the past couple of days. My lightning round analysis on two big recent stories follows:

Charlie Manuel v Howard Eskin

Nobody is a winner in this matchup of two of Philadelphia's most polarizing sports personalities. I honestly can't blame Charlie for finally losing his cool and flipping out on Eskin - the guy really is a bottom feeder who lives to cause trouble by making his hatred for Philadelphia professional sports figures personal - in Eskin's world, Bobby Abreu was just another heartless, lazy Latin ballplayer, Allen Iverson was a punk who didn't learn a thing from the time he was drafted to the time he was traded, and Charlie Manuel is a player's manager who is clearly bad at his job because he stutters and speaks with a West Virginian accent. Manuel finally reached a boiling point and lost his composure after Eskin's persistent needling got to be too much

Besides Howard Eskin getting national television time as a result of the incident, the thing that upset me more than anything else is the idiotic notion put forth by Eskin (and sadly agreed upon by his legion of followers, the Philly "fan" base) that a good manager of men needs to berate his employees from time to time. I'm no fan of people that yell, so maybe my heavy personal bias come into play here...but you'll have a hard time convincing me that major league ballplayers need somebody to yell and scream at them to realize they should be playing better baseball.

And though it's really neither here nor there...is there any doubt that the Phillies skipper wouldn't have kicked Eskin's ass?

Brett Myers to the Bullpen

Early season struggles or not, Myers has the track record that indicates he is the best starter on the Phillies staff. You want your best players on the field as much as possible, right?

200 innings in the rotation > 70-80 innings out of the bullpen

Terrible move, Phillies.

3-8

2007-04-17T14:51:00.000-04:00

I have a few random game notes scratched out on computer paper from the Astros series, but they hardly seem relevant with so much time having passed since the last Phillies game. In an effort to provide some big league content (and not just focus on the minors), I'll share some of the random, big picture thoughts that I gleaned from watching this past weekend's abbreviated series...

It's time to think about playing around with the lineup a little bit. I know, I know...lineup construction is pretty much meaningless in the grand scheme of things, but it's one of the few old school baseball traditions that I think is worth preserving, for the interesting discussion it sparks if nothing else. I don't have any concrete plan on what the new lineup ought to look like, but I'll provide some jumping off points: Jimmy Rollins, aka the best shortstop in baseball these days, might be best served hitting in the middle of the lineup than at the top; Aaron Rowand's shocking .458 OBP might look alright higher in the lineup (leadoff? 2-hole?) if he keeps it up; it's finally time to split up the two lefties in the middle of the lineup, no? If you'd prefer to see Rollins stay at the top of the lineup, then what's wrong with giving Pat Burrell at shot batting cleanup for a while?

If you want to worry about Ryan Howard's "slow" start, I won't try to talk you out of it. That said, I'm not in the least bit worried about the '06 MVP...sure, he's had a slower start than I'm sure many would have liked to see, but he really looked like the light came back on for him this past weekend against Houston. Watching him go the other way consistently is the easiest thing a fan can do to figure out whether he's going good or not - I'm hardly an expert on swing mechanics, but I expect big things in the coming week out of the big man based on what I saw this past weekend.

It was an absolute joke to see Michael Bourn sent on to the field on Saturday to run for Pat Burrell in the sixth inning of a tight ballgame. Burrell had just hit an RBI single and was standing on first base with two outs and a baserunner ahead of him when Charlie Manuel lifted him from the game. The potential advantage of such a move is so slight, it's almost not worth making at all...but when you consider the downside, it becomes 100% indefensible. The very next inning (bottom 7), Ryan Howard was intentionally walked to load the bases with 2 outs for...defensive sub extraordinare Michael Bourn. Bourn looked horribly overmatched as he struck out on 3 pitches. The temptation for Charlie should be removed, Bourn should be sent down (up?) to Canada to play everyday...and Chris Coste, a better bench bat, should get promoted. As long as Coste hits, he stays...if/when he goes cold, you can try again with another AAA bat.

Last but not least, Francisco Rosario made his Phillies debut on Saturday...the kid looked good. It was fastball after fastball (I saw 93-95...though I've heard some guns had him as high as 98), but it worked. He blew three fastballs right by Lance Berkman to strike him out in a huge situation in the 7th. Throwing the heater on 2-0, 3-1, and then 3-2 is a risky proposition, but when you are hitting 94/95, you can make it work. Rosario's progress will be fun to watch this year.

My word verification for this particular post - UTOOL. What's Blogger trying to tell me?

Minor League Update 4/16

2007-04-17T14:44:00.000-04:00

Clearwater 4/16

Greg Golson (CF): 1-4, SB (5/5 on season)
Jeremy Slayden (LF): 0-3, BB, 3 K, E (1)
Clay Harris (1B): 0-3, BB, K
Welinson Baez (3B): 2-4
Brad Harman (SS): 1-4, 2 K
Lou Marson (C): 0-4, K

Though it's only been 19 at bats, Welinson Baez's hot start gives the Phillies at least another option in their sad race for third baseman of the future.

Pat Overholt: 5.2 IP 6 H 1 ER 1 BB 7 K HBP
Mike Zagurski: 1.1 IP 1 H 2 ER 2 BB 1 K HBP
Zac Stott: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

Overholt is looking more and more like the real deal as a future option for a job in the big league bullpen.

Minor League Update 4/13, 4/14, and 4/15

2007-04-15T20:27:00.000-04:00

Ottawa 4/14 (DH)

Chris Roberson (CF): 2-4
Chris Coste (C): 1-3, K
Brennan King (3B): 1-3
Danny Sandoval (SS): 1-3

I'm ready for either Chris Roberson or Chris Coste to get called up to replace the not quite ready for primetime Michael Bourn. Bourn ought to be playing everyday in Canada, not serving as Pat Burrell's legs with the big club.

Zack Segovia: 6 IP 5 H 4 ER 2 BB 3 K wild pitch

12 groundouts to 3 flyouts for Segovia on the night, a silver lining on an otherwise unspectacular outing.

Ottawa 4/14 (DH)

Chris Roberson (CF): 1-3, RBI, R, BB
Chris Coste (DH): 1-4, 2B, 2 RBI
Brennan King (3B): 0-3, R, BB
Jason Jaramillo (C): 1-3, R
Danny Sandoval (SS): 2-3, 2B, RBI

Eude Brito: 0 IP 2 H 2 ER 1 BB 0 K
Yoel Hernandez: 1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K
Brian Sanches: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

Brito's rough night leads to his ERA jumping to 18.00 through 2 innings.

Reading 4/13

Javon Moran (CF): 3-5, R, SB and CS (5/6 on year)
Mike Costanzo (3B): 0-4, K, E (6)

Kyle Kendrick: 6 IP 8 H 3 ER 1 BB 2 K
Nate Johnson: 2 IP 4 H 3 ER 1 BB 1 K

Reading 4/14

Javon Moran (CF): 2-6, RBI, 2 R, SB (7/8)
Mike Costanzo (3B): 2-3, 2B, RBI, R, 2 BB, K

With the two walk day, Costanzo now has a BB/K ratio of 3/14 through 35 at bats.

Bubba Nelson: 0.2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K
Anderson Garcia: 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K

Clearwater 4/13

Greg Golson (CF): 1-4, RBI, K, E (1)
Brad Harman (2B): 0-4, 2 K
Jeremy Slayden (RF): 2-4, 2B, R, K
Clay Harris (3B): 0-4, E (2)
Welinson Baez (DH): 1-4, 2B, RBI, K
Lou Marson (C): 2-4, 2B, 2 R, E (2)
Fidel Hernandez (SS): 1-4

Carlos Carrasco: 3.1 IP 7 H 7 ER 1 BB 3 K wild pitch
Derek Griffith: 2.2 IP 0 H 0 ER 3 BB 5 K
Mike Zagurski: 1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K
Will Savage: 1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

One plus in having Carlos Carrasco get shelled is that the bullpen guys get plenty of opportunities to impress. Griffith, Zagurski, and Savage all have kept opposing hitters at bay this season combining on 13.1 innings of scoreless baseball. Zagurski has a whopping nine strikeouts in his 4 innings of work so far.

Clearwater 4/14

Greg Golson (CF): 2-4, 2B, R, K, SB (4)
Jeremy Slayden (DH): 1-3, R, BB
Clay Harris (1B): 0-3, RBI, 2 R, BB, K
Welinson Baez (3B): 2-3, HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, BB, K
Brad Harman (SS): 1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, R, 2 K
Lou Marson (C): 0-3, RBI, K

Reports out of Clearwater claim that Welinson Baez is the early frontrunner for most improved player on the Threshers squad - his homer in this game was apparently a 420 foot bomb that got the attention of scouts in attendance.

Daniel Brauer: 6 IP 1 H 0 ER 3 BB 9 K
Zac Stott: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

Two great starts for Brauer so far and rumor has it that his velocity has seen a bit of a jump in the early going - it goes without saying, but a couple more ticks on his fastball make him an even more interesting prospect than he already is.

Clearwater 4/15

Greg Golson (CF): 2-4
Jeremy Slayden (DH): 1-3, 2 RBI, R, BB
Welinson Baez (3B): 1-4, 2B, RBI, R, K
Lou Marson (C): 2-3, RBI, K
Fidel Hernandez (SS): 0-4

It's early, but Greg Golson has been hitting and hitting with power. He is 14 for his 41 (.341 average) and 6 of those 14 hits are for extra bases (.561 slugging). His BB/K ratio still leaves something to be desired (1/10 ain't gonna cut it), but it's been a nice first 10 games for the former first rounder.

Andrew Carpenter: 7 IP 3 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K
Brett Harker: 1 IP 3 H 2 ER 0 BB 0 K

Carpenter followed up fellow 2006 college draftee Dan Brauer's stellar start with a pretty damn impressive outing of his own. Brett Harker has been a disaster so far this year, I can't help but wonder if he is hurting.

Lakewood 4/13

Quintin Berry (LF): 2-4, 2B, 2 R, K
Jason Donald (SS): 2-4, 3B, RBI, 2 R, K, 2 CS (now 0/3 on the year)
Adrian Cardenas (2B): 2-5, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R, K
Tuffy Gosewisch (C): 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI, R, 3 K
Jay Miller (DH): 3-5, RBI, R, K
Gus Milner (RF): 2-4, RBI, BB
C.J. Henry (3B): 0-4, BB, 2 K
Julian Williams (CF): 0-3, RBI, R, K

Great day for the BlueClaws lineup, you'll win a couple of games when you're first six batters all have multiple hit days. Cardenas' batting average (.333 through 7 games) may be a tad empty (only one extra base hit and 2 walks), but it is still damn impressive for a 19-year old in full season ball.

Darren Byrd: 4 IP 5 H 4 ER 3 BB 5 K HBP
Ben Pfinsgraff: 3.1 IP 2 H 0 ER 2 BB 3 K
Andrew Cruse: 1.2 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 2 K wild pitch

Ben Pfinsgraff continues to make me look like an ass by pitching so well at Lakewood - 7.2 scoreless innings so far for the former Maryland Terrapin.

Minor League Update 4/11 and 4/12

2007-04-13T10:51:00.000-04:00

I'm still coming down from my Felix Hernandez at Fenway high, so my game notes from the past few Phillies contests are sparse. However I am proud to say that I was unquestionably the only fan inside of Fenway Park on Wednesday night rocking the XM satellite radio so I could listen in on the Phillies-Mets game. I'm incredibly thankful I thought to do this...who knows when the Phils will win another game. On to some minor league notes from the past two evenings...

Ottawa 4/11

Chris Roberson (CF): 1-6, 3B, 3 RBI, R, CS (1)
Danny Sandoval (2B): 2-3, 2B, 2 R
Chris Coste (C): 1-5, RBI, R, BB
Brennan King (3B): 3-5, RBI, 2 R, SB (1)

Fabio Castro: 2.2 IP 1 H 0 ER 2 BB 2 K
Joe Bisenius: 0.2 IP 2 H 2 ER 1 BB 0 K
Brian Sanches: 2 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K

Jim Ed Warden has pitched a couple of times in the series for Buffalo (Cleveland) and now has allowed two earned runs in two innings of work. Oh Jim Ed, what might have been…

Ottawa 4/12

Chris Roberson (CF): 2-4, RBI
Chris Coste (DH): 1-3, 2B, BB
Brennan King (3B): 0-4
Danny Sandoval (SS): 1-4, K
Jason Jaramillo (C): 1-3, BB, K

Two hits for Chris Roberson…what an exciting night for the Lynx!

Reading 4/11

Javon Moran (CF): 1-3, 2 R, BB, SB (4)
Mike Costanzo (3B): 0-4, 2 K

Julio De La Cruz: 1 IP 3 H 2 ER 0 BB 1 K
Anderson Garcia: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

Reading 4/12

Javon Moran (CF): 2-4, 3B, 2 R, BB, SB (5)
Mike Costanzo (3B): 2-4, BB, E (6)

Matt Maloney: 6.2 IP 5 H 2 ER 3 BB 5 K
Bubba Nelson: 0.1 IP 3 H 2 ER 2 BB 0 K
Julio De La Cruz: 0.1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K

Andrew McCutchen (CF): 0-4, R, BB
Neil Walker (3B): 2-4, 2 RBI, R, BB

Check out Nelson’s line on the night…notice how terrible it was…process the fact that he actually wound up getting the win for Reading…and then realize there isn’t a whole lot of value of measuring a pitcher’s personal performance using wins as an indicator. Oh and Javon Moran? All he does is hit.

I added McCutchen and Walker’s numbers on the night because they are the top two bats in the Pirates system; McCutchen is the clear cut best prospect in the chain and Walker is attempting to regain some luster as a prospect while trying to make the transition from catcher to third this season.

Clearwater 4/11 (DH)

Greg Golson (CF): 2-4, 2B, RBI
Brad Harman (2B): 2-4, 2B
Jeremy Slayden (LF): 0-3
Clay Harris (3B): 1-2, BB
Lou Marson (C): 0-3, K, E (1)
Fidel Hernandez (SS): 0-2, R

Pat Overholt: 5 IP 7 H 3 ER 2 BB 3 K
Mike Zagurski: 2 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K

Zagurski stole the show with his two nearly flawless innings of relief (5 strikeouts is no joke), but Overholt’s effort should not be overlooked – he may have been tagged with a loss, but he managed to put up a GO/FO ratio of 11/1.

Clearwater 4/11 DH

Greg Golson (CF): 0-2, BB, K, SB (3)
Brad Harman (2B): 0-3, 2 K
Jeremy Slayden (DH): 0-2
Clay Harris (1B): 1-2, HR (2), RBI, R
Fidel Hernandez (SS): 1-2

Zac Stott: 3 IP 0 H 0 ER 2 BB 2 K
Derek Griffith: 2 IP 1 H 0 ER 2 BB 2 K

Nice job by Stott (acquired in the Rheal Cormier deal) and Griffith to shut down the Tampa bats.

Clearwater 4/12

Greg Golson (CF): 0-4, 3 K, OF assist
Brad Harman (2B): 0-4, K
Jeremy Slayden (RF): 1-3, R, BB
Clay Harris (3B): 0-2, R, 2 BB
Lou Marson (C): 1-4, HR (1), RBI, R, 2 K
Fidel Hernandez (SS): 1-3, RBI, K

Josh Outman: 4.1 IP 4 H 1 ER 4 BB 3 K
Will Savage: 1.1 IP 0 H 0 ER 1 BB 1 K
Brett Harker: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K

Rough night for many of the Threshers position players, including the three strikeout performance by Golson. Will Savage continues to throw well out of the bullpen.

Tim Battle (CF): 2-9, 3 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 3 SB (4), E (2)
Jose Tabata (RF/DH): 3-9, 3 BB, 3 K
Marcos Vechionacci (3B): 1-7, 2B, R, BB, 3 K
Ian Kennedy (SP): 6 IP 3 H 1 ER 2 BB 4 K wild pitch

I included a handful of players from Tampa for a couple of reasons: I saw Battle and Vechionacci play at Charleston two years ago and have been tracking their progress ever since, Tabata is far and away the most attractive hitting prospect in the Yankees system (especially now that the Phils have C.J. Henry…ha), and Ian Kennedy was a first rounder out of USC last year. So there you go.

Lakewood 4/12 (DH)

Quintin Berry (LF): 0-5
Jason Donald (SS): 1-4, R, E (2)
Tuffy Gosewisch (C): 2-4, 2B, K
Jay Miller (DH): 2-4, RBI, 2 R
Gus Milner (RF): 2-4, R, SB (2)
C.J. Henry (3B): 1-4, 2B, RBI, R, SB (3)
Julian Williams (CF): 1-4

Carlos Monasterios: 4.1 IP 7 H 2 ER 2 BB 4 K
Michael Dubee: 1.2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K

Monasterios rebounded nicely from his opening day disaster while Dubee continues to make a case that he should get a chance pitching in a full season rotation somewhere.

Lakewood 4/12 (DH)

Quintin Berry (LF): 1-3, R, SB (2)
Jason Donald (SS): 2-3, RBI, R, E (3), CS (1)
Adrian Cardenas (2B): 2-3
Gus Milner (RF): 0-3
Jay Miller (DH): 0-3
Joel Naughton (C): 1-3, E (1)
C.J. Henry (3B): 0-3, 2 K
Doug Morales (1B): 0-3, K
Julian Williams (CF): 0-2, K

Edgar Garcia: 5 IP 8 H 2 ER 1 BB 3 K

The entire BlueClaw lineup last night was filled with nine players that can be designated prospects depending on how you perceive them – granted, a good part of this is the fact that in A ball, everyone is so young that you can have at least a smidge of justifiable hope for practically every player. Great to see Edgar Garcia acquitting himself well to full season ball so far.

Minor League Report

2007-04-11T17:27:00.000-04:00

The Phillies will try for elusive win number two tonight as Adam Eaton takes the mound for the good guys looking for his first win as a member of the team that drafted him. He'll be opposed by the erratic, but talented lefthander Oliver Perez. I'd say more, but I've got tickets to see Felix Hernandez vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka tonight at Fenway. Since you're probably jealous, I offer up a hearty dose of Phillies minor league action to read all about - fair trade, no? Boy, oh boy, can't wait to see how the Lynx did last night! Suckers.

Ottawa 4/10

Chris Roberson (CF): 0-4, 2 K, E (3)
Chris Coste (1B): 0-3, 2 BB
Brennan King (3B): 1-4
Danny Sandoval (SS): 0-4
Jason Jaramillo (C): 0-3, BB

J.A. Happ: 5 IP 0 H 0 ER 3 BB 6 K
Joe Bisenius: 0.2 IP 2 H 3 ER 1 BB 0 K
Eude Brito: 1 IP 3 H 2 ER 1 BB 1 K
Yoel Hernandez: 1.1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K

Happ impressed with five innings of no hit ball, only to see Bisenius and Brito find ways to blow the lead against Buffalo. J.A. kept up his crazy flyball tendencies by getting eight of his nine non-strikeout outs on balls hit in the air. Terrible night by the Lynx position players, especially Roberson (3 errors already?).

Reading 4/10

Javon Moran (CF): 2-5, 2B, RBI, K
Mike Costanzo (3B): 0-4, K, 3 E (5)

Nate Johnson: 1 IP 3 H 1 ER 0 BB 0 K wild pitch
Nick Evangelista: 1 IP 4 H 3 ER 0 BB 2 K
Anderson Garcia: 1 IP 3 H 1 ER 0 BB 2 K wild pitch

Wow, at least Ottawa had good performances out of Happ and Hernandez; Reading was terrible last night. Johnson, Evangelista, and Garcia all got hit hard, and Mike Costanzo had an epically bad night – his 3 errors (2 fielding, 1 throwing) give him 5 on the year and his strikeout gives him 10 in 20 at bats. At least Javon Moran keeps up his hot hitting; another double tonight gives him 5 in 21 at bats, a pretty impressive feat considering he only had 13 in 293 last year (I know I mentioned this previously, but it boggles my mind for some reason).

Lakewood 4/10

Quintin Berry (LF): 1-5, R, K, E (1)
Jason Donald (SS): 3-5, 2B, 2 R, K
Adrian Cardenas (2B): 1-3, R, BB, 2 K
Tuffy Gosewisch (C): 0-2, R, 3 BB, K
Jay Miller (DH): 0-2, RBI, 2 R, BB, HBP
Gus Milner (RF): 3-5, 2 2B, 5 RBI, R, K, OF assist (1)
C.J. Henry (3B): 1-4, 2B, RBI, BB, 2 K
Doug Morales (1B): 1-4, BB
Julian Williams (CF): 1-4, RBI, R, BB

Kyle Drabek: 6 IP 5 H 1 ER 2 BB 4 K
Alex Concepcion: 2 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 2 K
Justin Blaine: 1 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

Lakewood drilled West Virginia last night behind big hits from Jason Donald and Gus Milner, and a strong starting turn by last year’s first rounder Kyle Drabek. Speaking of Drabek, from the April 1 edition of Future Shock from Baseball Prospectus:

2006 first-round pick Kyle Drabek had a tough pro debut with the Phillies, and one scout in Florida was unpleasantly surprised by the righthander when he saw him pitch for the first time. "I just expected much more out of him," he said. "There's no way, no how he's six feet tall. He's maybe 5-foot-10, and stocky and muscly, and there's just nothing to project on." And the stuff? "The curveball is good, but he was like 88-92 mph and I was not impressed--I don't see him as much more than a reliever."

This more or less directly contradicts reports from spring training published by Baseball America, so take it with a grain of salt. I’m still certain that no player in the Phillies system has more star potential than Drabek, though admittedly his skill set makes him a bit of a boom-or-bust kind of prospect. For what it’s worth, unsubstantiated reports from last night game had Drabek hitting the mid-90s with his fastball while trying to work in his newly refined changeup (in the low 70s), a “show me” slider (mid 80s), and his best pitch, the spike curve (76 mph – 82 mph).

Look on the Bright Side...(Ver. 2.0)

2007-04-10T20:28:00.000-04:00

Check out recaps of Phillies prospects currently at Ottawa and Reading right here. See what's going on at Clearwater and Lakewood below (interesting numbers and pitching lines in bold).

And because I had nowhere else to put it, the Phillies made some roster moves over the past few days that I keep forgetting to mention. Chris Coste, Joe Bisenius, and Zack Segovia are all now with Ottawa; Jon Lieber and Francisco Rosario are Phillies; and Joe Thurston was promoted from Reading to Ottawa after the Phillies traded Brent Abernathy to Washington. Now that you are all caught up, on to the minors...

Clearwater 4/5

Greg Golson (CF): 3-4, 3B, 2B, RBI, 3 R
Brad Harman (2B): 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
Lou Marson (C): 0-0, R, BB, HBP
Jeremy Slayden (DH): 2-3, 2 RBI, BB
Clay Harris (3B): 0-2, 2 RBI, E (1)

Chris Coste (C): 1-2, RBI, R
Freddy Garcia: 3.1 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 7 K

Pat Overholt: 4.2 IP 3 H 1 ER 2 BB 4 K
Mike Zagurski: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

Overholt is a 23 year old, short righthander coming off of a very good year spent between Lakewood and Clearwater; biggest challenge facing him going forward will be his coming to terms with shoring up his spotty control. Zagurski is a 24 year old short lefthander coming off a dominating season pitching out of the bullpen in Lakewood; as a college draft pick (University of Kansas), Zagurski has to pitch well enough to convince the Phillies to pick up their timetable with him or risk becoming the classic example of an older minor leaguer feasting on less experienced players.

Clearwater 4/6

Greg Golson (CF): 2-5, 2B, R, K, 2 SB (2)
Brad Harman (2B): 0-5, R, 3 K
Jeremy Slayden (DH): 3-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, R
Clay Harris (1B): 2-5, HR, RBI, R, 2 K
Welinson Baez (3B): 1-4, R, HBP
Fidel Hernandez (SS): 2-4, 2 E (2)

Slayden can hit, that much should now be obvious. The next step for the Phillies is to keep him in Clearwater a bit longer, let him get some time at first base and the outfield corners, and then finally promote him to Reading. I know he is a butcher in the field (or so I’ve been told), but if he can at least pretend to play those few positions then he’d make a very valuable (and cheap) bench bat for the Phillies in a year or two.

Chris Coste (C): 1-4, 2B, R, K
Jon Lieber: 3.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 0 BB 4 K

Derek Griffith: 0.1 IP 0 H 0 ER 1 BB 0 K
Josh Outman: 2.1 IP 7 H 6 ER 3 BB 3 K wild pitch

Griffith is a giant 24 lefthanded pitcher who is a marginal prospect…at best. Outman is a 22 year old lefty who seemingly has a future as a big league reliever…at worst.

Clearwater 4/7

Greg Golson (CF): 1-5, HR, RBI, R, 2 K
Brad Harman (2B): 0-5, 2 K
Jeremy Slayden (DH): 2-4, R
Clay Harris (3B/1B): 0-4, RBI, K
Lou Marson (C): 1-3, BB, K
Fidel Hernandez (SS): 1-4, RBI, K, E (3)

Chris Coste (1B/3B): 2-4, R

Carlos Carrasco: 5.2 IP 3 H 0 ER 3 BB 4 K HBP
Will Savage: 2 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K
Brett Harker: 1 IP 3 H 2 ER 1 BB 1 K

I wrote in the Lakewood portion below about how exciting the debuts of Drabek and Edgar Garcia were; Carlos Carrasco’s was right up there with them. I compared Carrasco’s development to Ryan Madson’s a few months ago (the good Ryan Madson, for the record), so I’m anxious to see what kind of performance he puts up in his Age 20 season in advanced A ball. Savage is arguably the best relief prospect to come out of the 2006 draft for the Phillies, he has legitimate bullpen sleeper potential.

Clearwater 4/9

Greg Golson (CF): 1-4, RBI, K, PO (1)
Brad Harman (2B): 3-4, 2 R
Jeremy Slayden (RF): 1-3, 2B, RBI, R, BB
Clay Harris (3B): 1-4, R, K
Lou Marson (C): 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI

Dan Brauer: 5 IP 6 H 1 ER 2 BB 3 K
Andrew Carpenter: 4 IP 3 H 1 ER 3 BB 4 K

Very encouraging night for the Threshers. 2006 draftees Brauer and Carpenter teamed up to hold Dunedin to just two runs, Brad Harman busted out with 3 hits, and Jeremy Slayden was freed from his personal designated hitter prison. It’s only been 15 at bats, but Slayden has a line of .533/.588/.867 on the year so far. Greg Golson is right there behind him with a line of .389/.368/.778 through 18 at bats.

Lakewood 4/5

Quintin Berry (LF): 1-5, RBI, R
Jason Donald (SS): 2-4, RBI, R, BB, K
Adrian Cardenas (2B): 1-4, RBI, R, BB, K
Tuffy Gosewisch (C): 0-4, BB, 2 K
Jay Miller (DH): 1-5, RBI, R, 2 K
Gus Milner (RF): 1-4, K
C.J. Henry (3B): 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R, 2 E (2)
Julian Williams (CF): 0-3, R, BB, K

Carlos Monasterios: 0.2 IP 5 H 7 ER 1 BB 0 K
Justin Blaine: 4.1 IP 3 H 2 ER 1 BB 3 K
Jarrod Freeman: 1 IP 3 H 2 ER 0 BB 1 K
Alex Concepcion: 2 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 3 K
Ronald Hill: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K

Monasterios, one of the prizes from the Bobby Abreu deal, had as bad a debut performance as you’ll ever see. The 21 year old righthander has an ERA of 94.50 to start off his season and somehow managed to throw 3 wild pitches while throwing to 9 batters; nowhere to go, but up…right?

Blaine is a big 23 year old lefty out of San Diego. Freeman is one of my favorite prospects in all the organization, a deep sleeper with a projectable frame (6’3”, 195) who suffered from a lack of exposure leading up to last year’s draft (not too many scouts plan trips to watch high school ball in Utah). He joins Adrian Cardenas as another teenager on the Lakewood squad (he’ll be 19 all season long). The organization is reportedly very high on the 22 year old native of the Dominican Republic, Alex Concepcion; it should be interesting how he does in his first crack at full season ball stateside. Ron Hill is a fringy minor league bullpen arm that is old for his league (24), but was a nice draft pick a few years back by the Phillies – I like the idea of targeting underused collegiate arms in the very late rounds of the draft and sticking them in the bullpen. Growing your own bullpen arms is all about quantity, quantity, quantity…if you have a good idea of what to look for and you try multiple ways of searching for it, good things will happen.

Lakewood 4/6

Quintin Berry (CF): 2-4, 2 R, BB, K, SB (1)
Jason Donald (SS): 2-5, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 K
Adrian Cardenas (2B): 0-4, RBI, R, 2 K
Tuffy Gosewisch (C): 2-4, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, R
Jay Miller (DH): 0-4, K
Gus Milner (RF): 2-4, 3B, R, 2 K
C.J. Henry (3B): 1-3, 3B, 2 R, K, HBP, SB (1)
Julian Williams (LF): 1-2, 2 R, 2 BB
Doug Morales (1B): 0-1

Edgar Garcia: 7 IP 4 H 1 ER 0 BB 5 K
Kyle Drabek: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K
Garet Hill: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

See, there is hope after all. Garcia and Drabek represent a whole lot of what is promising in the organization. The teenage duo (Garcia doesn’t turn 20 until September, Drabek won’t get there until December) were both sensational in their debuts.

Lakewood 4/7

Quintin Berry (CF): 1-4
Jason Donald (SS): 1-4, E (1)
Adrian Cardenas (2B): 2-4, K
Tuffy Gosewisch (DH): 0-4, 3 K
Jay Miller (LF): 1-4
Gus Milner (RF): 2-4, 2B, R
Joel Naughton (C): 1-3

Great to see Naughton get a start behind the dish, the Phillies have high hopes that the young catcher out of Australia will have a strong year in full season ball.

Darren Byrd: 4.1 IP 3 H 3 ER 4 BB 3 K
Mike Dubee: 1.2 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K
Ben Pfinsgraff: 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 1 BB 1 K
Andrew Cruse: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K

Cruse may take exception to the comment I made about Will Savage emerging as the best relief prospect the Phillies took in 2006; I’m surprised the Phils decided to start him in Lakewood rather than Clearwater though. I like Dubee way more than most, but am still very apprehensive about labeling Pfinsgraff a real prospect despite his success as a pro thus far – prove me wrong, Ben, prove me wrong.

Lakewood 4/9

Quintin Berry (LF): 1-4, BB, CS (1)
Jason Donald (SS): 0-4
Adrian Cardenas (2B): 1-4, R, K, CS (1)
Tuffy Gosewisch (C): 1-4, 2B, RBI, K
Jay Miller (DH): 1-4, 2B, R, K
Gus Milner (RF): 0-3, R, BB, 2 K, SB (1)
C.J. Henry (3B): 1-3, 2B, RBI, R, BB, SB (2)
Julian Williams (CF): 2-3, 2B, 2 RBI, BB, SB (1), CS (1)

Berry, Williams, and Milner must make up one heck of a defensive outfield - 2 natural centerfielders and a man with a rocket in right.

Jarrod Freeman: 4.2 IP 5 H 3 ER 3 BB 6 K
Ben Pfinsgraff: 2.1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K
Ron Hill: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K
Andrew Cruse: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K

Jay Miller is well on his way to being dropped from the daily minor league updates…nothing personal, buddy. Jarrod Freeman didn’t have a great start by many standards, but the six strikeouts in 4.2 innings is a nice sign. Pfinsgraff continues to impress, I love being proved wrong in cases like this.

Berry is a 22 year old outfielder drafted out of San Diego State last year who struggled adjusting to professional ball at Batavia.

Henry turns 21 at the end of May and it is believed that he is repeating Lakewood to both adjust to third base and to finally get a taste of some professional success at an age-appropriate level.

Milner is a very athletic 23 year old outfielder taken out of the University of Kansas last year. He is raw for a college player but has an interesting blend of speed, size, and power that makes him a name to keep in the back of your mind.

The 22 year old Donald is the best shortstop prospect in a system very thin in that area.

Adrian Cardenas is the best looking young hitter in the organization. The Phillies were relatively aggressive in promoting him to full season ball as a teenager (he is 19 years of age), but his All-Star season in the GCL last year forced their hand. Cardenas is ready to handle the challenge at Lakewood.

Gosewisch was reportedly ready to either repeat Clearwater or advance to Reading, but was instead left behind in Lakewood to serve as the veteran backstop for the promising BlueClaws rotation. While it may be a bit of a tough break for Tuffy, it stinks to be in A ball as a guy turning 24 in August, but it’s a very bright move by the organization to think of their group of talented Lakewood starting pitchers first and foremost.

Williams will be 24 in July and is an A ball repeater. Miller was drafted out of Washington State last year and will be 24 in August. Both players ought to be hopeful of careers as minor league mercenaries because their major league futures are simply not bright. I’ll keep track of their progress for now, but it won’t be long before I lose the will to talk about such marginal A ball players. Sorry, guys.

Look on the Bright Side...

2007-04-10T15:09:00.000-04:00

Or if not the bright side, at least look to the future anyway. I've been slacking off on reporting about the goings on in the world of Phillies minor leaguers, but no more. We'll kick things off with a report on the Phillies AAA and AA squads in Ottawa and Reading in the afternoon and then follow up with the A+ and A ball teams in Clearwater and Lakewood. Without further ado, Ottawa and Reading (interesting numbers and pitching lines are in bold)

Ottawa 4/7

Chris Roberson (CF): 1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, K, 2 E (2)
Danny Sandoval (SS): 1-6, K, E (1)
Brennan King (3B): 1-5, 2B, 2 RBI, R, 2 K
Jason Jaramillo (C): 2-4, 3B, 2 RBI, R, BB, K

Fabio Castro: 1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K
Yoel Hernandez: 1 IP 4 H 3 ER 0 BB 0 K
Eude Brito: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K
Brian Sanches: 1 IP 1 H 2 ER 0 BB 2 K wild pitch

Wacky opening night for Ottawa, but good to see the two most important prospects on the team (Jaramillo and Castro) play well.

Ottawa 4/9

Chris Roberson (CF): 1-5, RBI, OF assist (1)
Brennan King (3B): 1-4, E (1)
Jason Jaramillo (C): 1-4, K
Danny Sandoval (SS): 2-4, 2B, R

Not a single interesting pitcher to discuss threw for Ottawa…good times.

Reading 4/5

Jovan Moran (CF): 2-4, 2B, RBI, R, K, SB (1)
Mike Costanzo (3B): 1-4, HR (1), RBI, R, 2 K

Julio De La Cruz: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K
Bubba Nelson: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K
Anderson Garcia: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K

Jovan Moran was reacquired this offseason from the Cincinnati Reds in the Jeff Conine swap. The 24 year old can run really, really fast and does a good job of never striking out and never taking a walk; what a fun player. Costanzo is the Phillies most advanced hitting prospect who is facing a gigantic year in his development as a 23 year old at AA. How Costanzo hits this season will undoubtedly have a great impact on how the Phillies approach the 2007/2008 offseason with regard to shopping for a third baseman.

Garcia and De La Cruz are both 26 years old, and Bubba Nelson is 25; all three guys were obtained in different have taken different paths to Reading, but they all represent the beauty that is the fungible relief pitcher. I’d personally like to see Nelson, a free agent pickup at the end of spring training, to make an appearance in the Phillies bullpen before all is said and done.

Reading 4/6

Jovan Moran (CF): 2-4, 2B, RBI, R, BB
Mike Costanzo (3B): 2-4, HR (2), RBI, R, K

Matt Maloney: 5 IP 2 H 2 ER 4 BB 3 K
Nate Johnson: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K
Anderson Garcia: 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

Maloney had a decent debut at Reading after jumping from Lakewood to AA; the 23 year old looks to convince the powers that be that he isn’t necessarily destined to a future in the bullpen with a great 2007. Nate Johnson is 25 years old and needs to keep throwing well to have a chance to make it to Philly someday; for whatever reason, I have a rather large soft spot for the guy.

Reading 4/7

Javon Moran (CF): 2-4, 2B, 3 R, 2 SB (3/3 on year)
Mike Costanzo (3B): 1-4, 3 K

Kyle Kendrick: 6 IP 5 H 2 ER 0 BB 3 K wild pitch
Nick Evangelista: 1.2 IP 2 H 1 ER 0 BB 3 K
Julio De La Cruz: 1.2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K

Good first start for Kendrick and Moran keeps on hitting…even though the R-Phils are devoid of prospects for the most part, they’ve played what appears to be some entertaining ball so far. Although basing an assumption on that on box scores alone seems a bit silly, come to think of it…oh well, it takes too much effort to delete, so it stays.

Reading 4/9

Javon Moran (CF): 1-4, 2B
Mike Costanzo (3B): 0-4, RBI, 3 K

Bubba Nelson: 2 IP 1 H 1 ER 0 BB 3 K

Moran had 13 doubles in 293 minor league at bats last season; he has 4 in 16 so far in ’07. Costanzo has a whopping 9 strikeouts in 16 at bats through 4 games, not a great sign.

Phillies @ Mets - Game 7

2007-04-10T15:06:00.000-04:00

Mets 11 - Phillies 5

Phillies fall to 1-6 in one of the most frustrating games I've witnessed since...well, pick almost any loss against the Mets last season. I have nothing more to add.

Phillies @ Marlins Series Wrap

2007-04-08T22:27:00.000-04:00

Disappointing weekend for the Phillies in Miami. Read all about it below (and in case you missed a ton of words wasted on a slew of nobody relievers, check it out here):

Phillies 8 – Marlins 2

I probably should be keeping track of this statistically, but it seems to me that the shift that teams put on when Ryan Howard comes to the plate has worked out a whole bunch of times the first week of the season. In the second inning of Friday’s game, that’s exactly what happened; Howard scorched a ball to right field but it was exactly where the defense was playing him.

Carlos Ruiz is a starting catcher, there is no doubt in my mind about it. Who is clearly better in the National League? Brian McCann, Michael Barrett, maybe Russell Martin and/or Paul Lo Duca, Chris Iannetta soon enough…that’s about it as far as I can see. Now obviously Ruiz isn’t a cornerstone kind of player that you lock into a role and forget about upgrading for the next 5-6 years (see Utley, Chase), but he is a fine option as a starting catcher in the here and now. Hopefully Phillies management feels the same way and we see Ruiz get the vast majority of the time behind the dish in 2007 (nothing personal Rod, it’s just that you kind of stink at baseball).

Pat Burrell made a very nice diving catch in the bottom of the fourth inning on Friday. I don’t bring it up so much to talk about the catch (in fact, a couple of days later I don’t really remember it all that well…all my notes say are “great diving catch in left”), but the fact that he was in a position to make it in the first place. Burrell is moving so much better in left field than he has in prior seasons. It looks to me that he is slimmer this year than last and more athletic both in the field and on the base paths. He made a nice hustle play getting to a foul ball on Thursday against the Braves only to get charged with an error (and the ensuing symphony of boos) for not catching it.

In a perfect world, I’d do recaps every series of the visiting team’s broadcast crew – a full analysis, pros and cons, what makes each partnering unique, etc. The world is clearly not perfect and I know this because of the very existence of Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton, the Florida Marlins broadcast team. They are terrible. I have nothing more to add. Let’s move on.

Even though Miguel Olivo runs a lot better than I remembered, it was still pretty inexcusable for him to ignore a stop sign at third and try for an inside-the-park homerun. Poor guy was out by 20 feet, easy.

The bottom of the fifth inning was unquestionably the turning point of the game. I was soooooo wrong about Jamie Moyer being a bad matchup against Miguel Cabrera and the Marlins – the ancient former Mariner put on a clinic against the youthful Florida lineup. With men on first and third, Moyer completely went into his own personal version of Operation Shutdown…only not nearly as evil and infinitely more effective. Moyer slowed the game down, paced around the mound between pitches, threw over to first an inordinate number of times…and before you knew it, three Marlins (Aaron Boone, Hanley Ramirez, and Dan Uggla) had popped up and the Phillies were out of the jam. Watching Cole Hamels pitch is the ultimate in pitching excitement when it comes to the Phillies and I can’t wait until his start against the Mets on Monday, but I’m now almost as excited to see what Moyer does on Thursday.

Marlins 8 – Phillies 5

Highlight of the game for the Phillies was obvious – Jimmy Rollins’ inside-the-park homerun was a sight to see. It was made about a million times better by Harry Kalas’ awesome call, so if you haven’t seen the highlight yet I suggest checking it out.

Another thing I’d like to start tracking, but won’t because I am too lazy is the number of times players swing at 3-0 pitches and in what situations they do so. Maybe I’m crazy, but it seems as though the Phillies have swung at a ton of 3-0 pitches in the early part of the year (most notably Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, and Shane Victorino). Baseball Prospectus has begun doing a manager profile in their yearly annual and I think a great addition would be the inclusion of green lights on 3-0 pitches. I wish I had thought of this before the season, I would have been more than happy to keep track for the Phillies…maybe next year.

To continue what I said earlier about Pat Burrell being in better shape, did anybody else notice the play he jetted back to first on a ball Aaron Rowand hit that was caught in the gap? Burrell started on first, but was well past the bag at second when he realized the ball wasn’t going to drop. He then proceeded to run as fast as he could (well, presumably it was as fast as he could…how would I know either way?) until he made his way back to first.

Shane Victorino is a noticeably better outfielder than Aaron Rowand and it is a crime that he isn’t playing centerfield everyday. Rowand’s defense was one of the things I looked forward to most heading into 2006, but outside of a highlight reel catch of two he has been pretty average out there. Victorino has more range, a vastly superior arm, and a better idea of how to play certain hitters (I’m guessing on that last one, but it frustrates me to no end when I see Rowand play so damn shallow for EVERY SINGLE HITTER).

Gary Matthews referred to a current major league ballplayer as “Junior” during the broadcast. There is no way that I was the only one who thought of Ken Griffey Jr. rather than Gary Matthews Jr., right?

Two wasted opportunities for the Phillies summed up the entire night for me. In the fifth, Jimmy Rollins doubled and Shane Victorino followed it up with a walk; Chase Utley and Ryan Howard both went down stranding the two runners. In the sixth, Burrell and Wes Helms lead off the inning with back to back singles; Rowand, Carlos Ruiz, and Jayson Werth went down 1-2-3.

Marlins 6- Phillies 4

The ultimate in frustration for a Phillies fan – 7 hits + 11 walks adding up to 4 runs scored. Take heart, Phillies fans, I guarantee that some of those baserunners will result in runs before long. Teams with high number of guys left on base also happen to be teams with high numbers of, wait for it because this is earth shattering, guys getting on base in the first place. When you have lots of guys who get on base, surprise surprise, eventually things begin to even out and the “clutch” hits with runners in scoring position begin to start falling in. Patience.

I listened to this game on my XM while attending the Boston College-North Carolina game…at least the Phillies kept things closer than the Golden Eagles did against the Tar Heels (15-6 final, UNC finished off the 3 game sweep).

So the Marlins radio crew is an interesting one…the discussion on beer pong was quite enlightening. The announcer brought up the fact that Aaron Rowand as his “Beer Pong Champion” wristband. Unfortunately for the listening audience, he then attempted to explain the intricacies of beer pong to his older, less hip partner. Despite being a college student, I’m hardly an expert on beer pong…but I was damn confused listening to this guy’s explanation. According to him, beer pong is played with a paddle and a ping pong ball. There are two cups on each side of the table and players take turns trying to hit the ball with a paddle into a cup on the fly. Maybe this is a version of the game I simply hasn’t seen, so if anybody knows more about this let me know.

Zack Segovia’s father in-law is former big leaguer Darnell Coles. Who knew? Not me…

Bring on the Mets…I’m not just being a huge homer, but I think the pitching matchups favor the Phillies by a lot…here comes the sweep that turns April around. If not…Davy Johnson should make sure to frequently check his email.

1-4 Start Has Phillies Seeking Bullpen Help

2007-04-08T00:12:00.000-04:00

The Phillies continual search for bullpen help has been an interesting one with four names featured prominently over the past week. How about a closer look?

Ron Villone - PASS

The Phillies talked to Ron Villone and agent Scott Boras but passed on signing the veteran lefty reliever released last week by the Yankees, who offered Villone a minor-league deal with an out by May 1. [NY Post: 4/4]

Talk to him, check him out, see if he has anything left...and then decide he's not a good fit. I support the process and am glad the Phillies looked into adding a potentially helpful guy. It's also encouraging that management didn't rush into making a bad signing just because of a perceived hole in the bullpen that just haaaaad to be filled up by a "proven" reliever rather than another, more creative option - in prior seasons, the powers that be might have rushed out to sign Villone even if they weren't convinced he would be a real improvement simply to get another veteran arm in the pen (something that sadly appeases many "fans" of the team).

Dustin Hermanson - IN LIMBO

General manager Pat Gillick said the Phillies might take another look at righthander Dustin Hermanson, who was released Sunday by Cincinnati. The Phils saw Hermanson in the off-season but weren't impressed. He had a 7.36 ERA in eight appearances this spring for the Reds. He started well, but struggled late in the spring. Hermanson missed much of last season because of back problems. [Philly Inquirer 4/7]

The Phillies worked him out about a month ago and passed, but apparently absence makes the heart grow fonder - life without Dustin has proved just far too difficult for Pat Gillick to bear. If they think Hermanson is better than what they currently have on the roster, he could be in Phillies pinstripes by the end of next week. One can't help but wonder what has changed in the past few weeks that could have changed the Phillies mind about Hermanson - if his stuff really has deteroriated as much as the rumors surrounding him lead you to believe, would he really be an upgrade over a reliever who has been relatively effective, but lacks great stuff like Clay Condrey?

Francisco Rosario - WELCOME TO PHILLY

Plenty to say about Rosario, the newest addition to the roster after the Phillies snatched him from the Blue Jays for a mere $100,000. Rosario had a legitimately great 2002 minor league season between A and A+ ball. Unfortunately, he was not given a chance to immediately build on his success because he went under the knife after hearing a pop in his elbow while pitching in the AFL. He missed the entire 2003 season and the first six weeks of 2004 with an unrelated upper-arm injury. Rosario started in the minors up until the Blue Jays converted him into a reliever in August of 2005.

His current repertoire is explained in the quote from the 2007 edition of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, but his progression of "stuff" has been a fascinating one. Using all kinds of resources both electronic and print, I've managed to put together the following: Plus fastball (92-97 MPH pre-injury with "exceptional command," 93-96 MPH post-injury with "solid command"); above average 86-88 MPH changeup with late action; pre-injury he threw a slurve, post-injury it was more a slider (85-88 MPH). Below are quotes taken from Baseball America that track Rosario's progress over the years:

Baseball America 2004 Prospect Handbook (ranked 5th, ahead of Aaron Hill, Dave Bush, and Jayson Werth): "Rosario would have been the Jays' No. 1 prospect last year if not for the surgery."

Baseball America 2005 Prospect Handbook (ranked 4th, only behind Brandon League, Aaron Hill, and Guillermo Quiroz): "Rosario has the power stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation starter."

Baseball America 2006 Prospect Handbook (ranked 8th): "Some observers think he pitches as if he fears hurting his elbow again."

Baseball America 2007 Prospect Handbook (ranked 6th): "Rosario employs true power stuff: a mid-90s fastball peaking at 98 mph with life, an 85-88 mph slider and a hard split-grip changeup."

From Baseball Prospectus 2007:

Once considered a high-upside guy, Francsico [sic] Rosario has had his share of arm troubles and has gotten older without the upside coming around, but he could be salvaged as a decent arm out of the bullpen if he maintains the uptick in control he experienced with Syracuse last year.

That's a lot of information to digest, but the bottom line is fairly clear: Rosario had great stuff and command pre-injury, has good to very good stuff and command post-injury, but still hasn't put it all together at the big league level. He is at the point of his career where he needs to be given a shot to sink or swim in the majors and I'm extremely happy to see the Phillies as the team willing to give him that shot.

Rick Bauer - WELCOME TO OTTAWA

The Phillies added inventory to their relief corps yesterday when they signed free-agent righthander Rick Bauer to a minor-league contract, pending a physical. Bauer, 30, went 3-1 with two saves and a 3.55 earned run average in 58 games for Texas last season, but the Rangers released him March 28. He had a bad spring. He went 0-1 with a 15.63 ERA in five appearances. In 61/3 innings, he allowed 19 hits, 15 runs (11 earned), 4 home runs, and 4 walks. He hit two batters and struck out four. [Philadelphia Inquirer 4/7]

The move itself is nothing to jump and down with excitement about, but the context of such a signing is pretty exciting. You build a good bullpen by getting as many interesting arms as possible (and ideally for as cheap as possible) and letting them sort themselves out - if Bauer looks good up in Ottawa, great; if not, what have you lost? There is no commodity in baseball quite as fungible as the relief pitcher and moves like the Bauer put this theory to work.

In fact, just as I was about to put this post to bed I stumbled across Bauer's comment in Baseball Prospectus 2007. I think it really reinforces the point made in the preceding paragraph plus it adds an interesting projection for '07:

Relievers are a volatile lot. Maybe it's that luck plays a bigger hand in their results given the small sample sizes of their annual workloads, maybe it's that it's more difficult to maintain all the different mechanical aspects of pitching when you only throw so many pitches at a time, or perhaps that lack of consistency is what put many relievers in the pen in the first place. Bauer is actually one of the more consistent relievers within his range; he's been a more or less league-average pitcher since 2001...PECOTA sees his unimpressive K/BB rate catching up with him in 2007.

The blurb also mentions Bauer's ability to adjust to pitching in Texas last year by his marked improvement in GB% (from 45.2% in 2005 with the Orioles to 54.5% with Texas). It should also be noted that Bauer only gave up one homer in 146 batters faced in 2006, certainly an encouraging skill for a pitcher with dreams of pitching in South Philly at some point in '07.

Braves @ Phillies: Game 3/162

2007-04-05T22:34:00.000-04:00

Braves 8 - Phillies 4

Today's game was a complete disaster, so in an effort to minimize the negativity, the recap is a good bit more random than last night's. I also decided to mix things up by ditching the bullets - I didn't like the look as much as I thought I would. Instead of ugly round circles, please enjoy a series of disjointed paragraphs that appear as though they were written at a fifth grade level (if that). Happy reading!

Phillies starter Adam Eaton got knocked around, yes, but I'm here to tell you that his performance was not quite as bad as his final line (4.2 IP 7 H 7 ER 4 BB 3 K) looks. He was unquestionably bad, no doubt about that, but there were a few positives here and there if you really squinted hard. Let's see...what went well for Eaton today. Well, first off it's nice to see that he's managed to stay healthy so far - I was half-expecting him to find a way to swallow the rosin bag and have to go on the 15-day DL while recovering from getting his stomach pumped. What else went well for Eaton? Truthfully, his stuff looked solid when it wasn't getting smacked all over the field. His fastball was hitting 93 MPH on the gun and his curve (76-79 MPH) showed signs of being a solid secondary offering. It's not a whole lot, but at least it's something to build on.

I commented on Ryan Howard starting and ending a beautiful 3-6-3 double play last night. In the first inning of today's game, Howard found himself fielding a groundball that put him in the exact same position of being the man to start a key inning ending 3-6-3 double play. Unfortunately for all involved (except for those anybody out there associated with the Braves, of course), Howard's throw to Jimmy Rollins covering second was the SINGLE WORST THROW IN THE HISTORY OF NOT ONLY MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL, BUT THE SPORT OF BASEBALL ITSELF. Do yourself a favor and see if you can track down a replay, it was that bad. If you didn't know any better, you would honestly think that Howard wasn't throwing to Rollins at all but was instead trying to hit Pat Burrell out in left field. The big man now has two errors in three games and could have easily been given the error on the play Wes Helms botched last night. Subpar fielding like this is a heck of a lot easier to take when you are hitting...something Howard isn't doing a whole lot of at this point. Again, please keep in mind that I say all of this knowing full well that it's only been three games...no need to panic about Howard's game quite yet.

By the way, that error on Howard cost the Phillies big time. You can't assume the double play (something I find dumb so I'll ignore), but if you were the type that enjoyed assuming things (hey, like me!) then you'd realize the Phils would have been out of the first inning unharmed. The error continued the inning and Eaton gave up the first 2 runs of his 2007 campaign. Perhaps a teeny bit more evidence that Eaton pitched a tad better than his line indicated (I'm really reaching to find positives here, folks).

Jimmy Rollins lead off the game with a great at bat against Chuck James and never looked back. The Phillies shortstop was 2-4 with a walk on the day and has now walked 4 times in the first 3 games. His approach at the plate is noticeably different than in years past and

Chuck James really has a heck of a changeup. Fans who watched the Phils-Braves series had the pleasure of seeing three of the best changeups in the National League - Cole Hamels and Chuck James are both young lefty starters with plus changes, and the 0-2 Ryan Madson's best offering remains his filthy slow ball (it's hard thinking of synonyms for changeup).

Braves first baseman Scott Thorman made a sensational play on a mile high (literally, a mile...maybe three) Ryan Howard pop up in the bottom of the fourth. The wind was making every ball hit in the air an adventure, but Thorman handled Howard's rainmaker with aplomb.

Great to see Joe Bisenius make his major league debut - his fastball impressed (91-93 MPH with movement) and his slider looks like a legitimate strikeout pitch. Bisenius was rather rudely greeted to the bigs by Atlanta, but after surrendering a leadoff double he settled down quite nicely.

Clay Condrey: 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the addition of Francisco Rosario put as much pressure on Condrey to perform as it did Bisenius. Everybody assumes that Bisenius will be the one sent down (and I don't disagree), but I think a bad outing today by Condrey would have made the Phillies wonder whether he was worth keeping around anymore. I'm glad he pitched well, glad he'll stick around, and I look forward to future successes by the underdog reliever with the fringy stuff.

Ryan Howard had too shots to make the game interesting with a deep fly in today's game, but couldn't deliver. I'm not knocking the guy, in fact it's quite the opposite - expectations are sky high based on his 2006 MVP season, I almost expect him to a hit a home run in every big spot. The fact that he struck out in both the fifth and seventh with two men out each time was disappointing, but hardly a reason to think the sky is falling.

Top of the 8th inning, Citizens Bank Park, Phillies vs. Braves: "Burrell Sucks" chant breaks out in the crowd. I'm not going to obsess about the Burrell bashing like I did last season with all the Abreu hatred because it's simply not worth the time and effort getting mad about people who don't have a clue about what makes a good ballplayer. For the record, Burrell went 2-4 on the day with a BB, R, and RBI.

Antonio Alfonseca looked shockingly good. I know I've been saying this a lot lately, but it was just one game...even still, it was a pleasant surprise seeing El Pulpo hitting 94 MPH with his fastball. I liked the signing of Alfonseca at the time (low risk, relatively high reward) as long as the Phillies show they are willing to cut bait if he struggles. Hopefully, he'll continue to impress and it will never come to that. Keep it up, Pulpy.

I realize I never gave a full 2007 Phillies preview of any kind during the offseason, so I think a lot of my predictions/concerns dealing with the coming months will trickle out over the course of the next few game recaps. Having said that, let me now point out that I am absolutely terrified about the prospect of Jamie Moyer getting the ball every fifth day. I hope more than anything I am proven wrong, but I have a sinking feeling in my gut that '07 will be a season to forget for the ancient former Mariner. Tomorrow night's matchup against Miguel Cabrera has already got me worried and the first pitch won't be thrown until just about 20 hours from now. Prove me wrong, Jamie.

I'd also like to point out that Thursday was opening night in the minor leagues. If you can remember back to last season, this site got quite minor league heavy in coverage at times. It was pretty well received, so I'm hoping to keep it up into the 2007 season. Hopefully that will officially start up tomorrow. We'll also take a closer look at the addition of Francisco Rosario...a trade that gives me hope that the game hasn't quite passed Pat Gillick altogether.

Braves @ Phillies: Game 2/162

2007-04-04T23:52:00.000-04:00

Braves 3 - Phillies 2

Lots to say about one of the better played baseball games I've seen in a while, so no time wasting filler, just the finest in random bulleted observations:

Ryan Howard and Chase Utley both hit balls in the first inning that would have been long gone on a warmer day. It was a cold day, so they were just long, loud outs.

Wes Helms is a bit of a butcher at third, no? The lack of range was definitely expected, but I was disappointed by his noodle arm whipping balls in slow motion across the diamond. I'll keep in mind it was just one game, but I'll admit that I'm going to be nervous on every ball his way until he gives me a reason to trust his defense.

Tim Hudson's stuff looked better than I've seen it since he has arrived in Atlanta - he looked like the Oakland version of Hudson, a great sign for Braves fans going forward. The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers has Hudson's repertoire classified as 1) low-90s sinker, 2) splitter, 3) change, 4) slider, and 5) curve. That low-90s sinker was absolutely working for Hudson against the Phillies, he was sitting on 93 MPH consistently on the Philly Comcast SportsNet gun. Baseball Prospectus foretold his demise a few years ago (abnormally high percent of stranded runners in '05, pitcher friendly home ballparks in Oakland and Atlanta, and lefties beginning to hit him extremely hard), but I'm not so sure he can't have a heck of a rebound year in 2007. I have to believe that rib cage injury hurt him more than he let on last year and if he is 100% healthy, watch out.

The Phillies broadcasters (specifically Wheels) continuously mentioned Charlie Manuel telling them that he was very comfortable with Carlos Ruiz catching Cole Hamels on a regular basis. Ruiz's two hits (his monster home run to left and then a pretty opposite field single to right) certainly were a welcomed sight as there is no doubt in my mind that he should see the bulk of the time behind the plate this season.

Maybe I'm crazy, but Harry Kalas sounds really happy this year. Maybe it's early season excitement, maybe it's the new three man booth dynamic...I don't know. Whatever it is, I like it. I know Phillies fans are beginning to make some noise about HK retiring based on his many jump the gun home run calls, but if you are watching the game then why should these calls bother you? I'm quite happy judging for myself if a ball has home run distance off the bat while I sit back and simply enjoy Harry's excitement.

Another minority opinion of mine: I enjoy the middle innings with Chris Wheeler and Gary Matthews working together. They both drive me nuts at times, but I think they actually complement each other well.

Matthews is still extremely rough around the edges (he mumbles, he rarely speaks in complete sentences, he is constantly either stating the obvious, mispronouncing names, or reading off of the screen), but his lack of polish appeals to me - you honestly never know what the guy is going to say next. Last night he told viewers "you gotta have some bucks if you want to go to Pepperdine." For better or worse, I promise you that you won't hear many other color guys making such weird, random statements as that. Sarge also made a pretty decent point when talking about the progression of Hamels and how you can already see how he is beginning to get all kinds of strike calls on balls hitting the corners - when you are around the plate as consistently as he is, you begin to get the benefit of the doubt.

Bad call on the third inning pickoff play where Jimmy Rollins was called out. I'm not hear to whine about bad calls because things balance each other out in the long run (more or less anyway), but it's frustrating when you don't need a replay to see the umpire blew a call. If I can see it in real time, the umpire should be able to get it right as well.

Gotta love Jeff Francoeur - the guy went from wildly overrated after his hot callup two years ago to wildly underrated now that he is coming off a lackluster 2006 (29 homers and 100+ RBIs are nice, but that OPS+ of 89 and -1 VORP are hard to swallow). Francoeur just turned 23 in January...the kid has plenty of room to grow as a player. Sure, he'll never have Bobby Abreu's plate discipline, but his raw power is still pretty special. For what it's worth, PECOTA has him pegged for a 2007 line of .284/.327/.498...and his list of comps include Andre Dawson and Albert Belle.

Now that I've built Francoeur up, allow me to knock him back down a few pegs (it's the American way). Francoeur got himself out on two fastballs at his eyes against the Phillies last night. He swung and missed on an 86 MPH Cole Hamels' fastball in the seventh and then popped up weakly to Abe Nunez on an 87 MPH Ryan Madson heater. Chasing nearly unhittable balls at eye level would probably qualify as one of the downsides of the swing at everything approach, right?

Brian McCann is really, really good. Unfortunately, I've already said as many positive things as I am permitted to say about the Braves in any one given night. So sorry, Brian, but we are going to focus on an at bat where Cole Hamels got the best of you. Fourth inning, one out, man on first - the pitch sequence in this scenario was insane. 81 MPH change for a called strike on the outside corner, 90 MPH fastball in on McCann's hands, another 81 MPH change away, and finally an 82 MPH change in on his hands that was hit softly into an inning ending double play. Cole Hamels is fun to watch.

Speaking of Hamels...I loved the exchange between the young lefty and Craig Wilson. Hamels fell behind the Blonde Bomber, a notorious lefty killer, 2-0 before freezing him with back-to-back-to-back changeups (all in the 76-78 MPH range). It was a thing of beauty.

Speaking of Hamels (version 2.0)...his dominating performance was made all the more amazing due to the fact that he was really only getting by with two pitches (88-92 MPH fastball, 76-82 MPH changeup). He bounced enough nasty curves (73-76 MPH) in the dirt to keep the Braves honest, but for the most part he just threw perfectly located fastballs and changeups over and over again.

I heard Shane Victorino looked on opening day, at least until he redeemed himself with a double late in the game. Funny story. I saw Shane Victorino looking bad last night, at least until his eighth inning RBI double against tough lefty Mike Gonzalez. The doubles are nice, of course, but the guy still looks badly out of sorts at the plate. We're only two games in, so it's not a real concern...just making conversation (although really I'm just rambling semi-coherently to myself).

Back to Hamels...the kid did an amazing job of staying on his feet on Craig Wilson's dribbler back to the mound in the seventh. I thought for sure he was either going to fall without making a play OR, even worse, fall while making the throw and send the ball flying down the right field line.

If Michael Bourn's role on this team is to run for Pat Burrell in the seventh inning of one-run ballgames, then he needs to pack his bags for Ottawa as soon as possible. It's obviously not Bourn's fault, but as long as he is around Charlie will be tempted to use him to run. Bourn wound up getting two at bats hitting in Burrell's fifth spot in the lineup after coming into the game...that shouldn't happen.

Comcast has a weird new in-game interview feature that kind of blew my mind tonight. HK, Wheels, and Sarge were talking to Hamels just minutes after he came out of the game. The idea is pretty cool in theory (I love that the walls are coming down between athlete and fan...especially in the electronic print media), but it was a bit intrusive to have an interview going on in the middle of a tight game. For what it's worth, the only interesting thing I got out of the interview is that Hamels has been working hard on his hitting with Jimy Williams. Who will have the higher OPS by the end of the year - Hamels or Abe Nunez? I think you could guess which player I'd bet on.

Watching Nunez ground out weakly in his first at bat made me feel all warm and fuzzy. In these crazy mixed up times, it's good to know that some things never change.

Jimmy Rollins (or J.R. as Matthews hilariously calls him) had some of his finest at bats in a Phillies uniform tonight. I know that sounds crazy hyperbolic, but I believe it - his approach at the plate thus far has been mighty encouraging. His at bat against Mike Gonzalez in the eighth stands out as an especially good one in my mind.

Ryan Howard started and ended a very pretty 3-6-3 double play in the ninth inning. Nice to see the big man redeem himself in the field after failing to scoop a low Wes Helms throw in the early going (Helms got the error on the play and rightfully so, though it's a ball most 1B should be able to make a play on).

Tonight was a huge outing for Ryan Madson on a personal level - how damaging would it be to be to a still young pitcher's psyche to be the man on the mound who blew the first two games of the season in extra innings to a division rival? Well...hopefully not all that damaging. Subpar performance aside, Madson's stuff looked pretty good: low 90s fastball that hit 93, 78-82 MPH changeup, slightly improved looking 83 MPH curve. Madson's problem tonight (and on opening day based on the highlights) was command - he is getting ahead of hitters, but then clearly missing his spots. Two strike, two out pitches should not be 82 MPH changeups that hang right out over the plate.
I can't be the only one terrified of the possibility of Flash Gordon 2007 = Joe Table 2003. I don't think Gordon's skills have fallen off a cliff quite like Jose Mesa's, but I am still going to be extremely anxious every time Gordon is out on the mound until proven otherwise. Where's Billy Wagner when you need him?

If you've made it this far, good for you - I only barely made it myself. Hopefully somebody did stick around because we've yet to touch on what will surely be the big story to come out of last night's game - the crazy bottom of the eighth inning. I can't say I really understand Shane Victorino attempting to steal third with one out, Ryan Howard at the plate, and only a two run lead. The explanation behind that (who decided Shane should run? Manuel? Lopes? Did Victorino himself decide to take off [my personal guess]?) will have to wait until the morning papers come rolling in.

The other big play in the eighth came after Chase Utley hit a gapper into right-center field. Ryan Howard, the baserunner on first at the time of the Utley's double, was waved around third and came barreling home only to be tagged out by Brian McCann on a close play at the plate. Victorino trying to steal third is hard to defend, but I'm actually quite alright with Howard being sent home on this play. It took a nearly flawless relay to get the big man at the plate (Francoeur to Kelly Johnson to Brian McCann - all three Braves made great plays to get Howard), so there isn't much you can do but shake your head and hope your "All-Star" closer can protect your 2-run lead. It didn't quite work out that way...it happens.

What I'm less alright with is the fact that part of the reason I don't mind the Phillies taking a chance was because they put themselves in a position where it behooved them to take the risk - with Burrell coming up with 2 on, 2 out then maybe I hold Howard up and take my chances with my five-hole hitter. With Michael Bourn coming up, trying to score Howard makes a lot more sense. Fact is they should have never been in that position in the first place. Tactical mistakes like this need to be minimized if this team is to go anywhere this season...they simply aren't talented enough and are in too tough a division to just skate on by.

0-2

Teams lose two games in a row all the time, it just looks and feels worse when they are at the start of a season. But it's a long season and things will get better. They have to...right?

Thanks MLB.TV

2007-04-03T12:54:00.000-04:00

I knew I was going to miss the start of the Phillies-Braves Opening Day game yesterday at 1 o'clock due to reasons well beyond my control. I wasn't happy about this, but I accepted my fate and tried my best to move on. Rather than sulk about missing the first real, meaningful major league baseball game in 5 months, I decided to come up with a backup plan - not a very intricate nor an altogether original backup plan, but a backup plan nonetheless. See, one of the perks of MLB.TV is the archival game footage. Miss a game? No problem, just fire up MLB.TV and you can watch it at your leisure in it's entirety. That was my master plan. Avoid any news about the game all day, then come home and watch the archived game as if it were an opening night game rather than an opening day game.

Needless to say, my plan went kaboom. As of 7:30 last night, the video version of the game was still not archived yet. Me, being the impatient lad that I am, decided to just go ahead and listen to the archived game on the uploaded radio broadcast whilst I waited. I did everything I could to avoid seeing the score at MLB.com or MLB.TV or on the MLB.TV Gameday Audio screen I loaded...I literally held my hand over the computer screen so that all I could see where the necessary buttons to start the radio feed up.

Then, proving that I am not only impatient but also a dope, I let my guard down. I remembered that on archived games, MLB.TV is courteous enough to hide the box score from the viewer - you have click on it if you want to see it. Nice feature, right? Remembering this, I slowly let my hand descend from it's position perched alongside the monitor. And there it was...in the lower lefthand side of the MLB.TV screen, a list of highlights from the game I so desperately wanted to watch.

"Renteria's game-winner"

Now my love of baseball is surely well documented by now, so much so that I don't even need to go into it again. Keeping that in mind, there was still no way in hell that I was going to invest three plus hours of my life to watch a game with the eventual outcome already known to me..."Renteria's game-winner." I know life is all about the journey and not the destination, so there still would have been some enjoyment in watching the game...but I couldn't bring myself to do it. So instead of a recap of what looked like a pretty exciting opening day game, all I can provide is the whiny tale of how I didn't get to watch the game. Lucky you!

I do realize that there has to be some humor in the fact that the longest post I've written in months just so happens to be one giant annoying string of complaint after complaint. But now that I have all of that off of my chest, I think I'm ready for some quick season preview stuff along with predictions. So keep an eye out for that.

Opening Day 2007

2007-04-02T02:43:00.001-04:00

It's about damn time.

John Vukovich

2007-03-20T14:23:00.000-04:00

The two best pieces of writing I read dealing with the recent death of Phillies lifer John Vukovich were both written by two Philly baseball insiders. I know I'm quite late to the news, but if you haven't read either article yet, go for it.

Jayson Stark on John Vukovich

Curt Schilling on John Vukovich

Marquis Grissom flat-out owned me. I couldn’t get him out no matter what I threw or where I threw it. Vuk would tell me day after day, “Fastball in Schill. He can’t hit it.” I tried, but nothing seemed to work. One day in Montreal I throw a fastball in on his hands, explode his bat, and he grounds out. I peek at the bench and Vuk stands up, bows, and doffs his cap.

We’re in Three Rivers Stadium playing the Pirates. Jason Kendall has had some success off me, and Vuk keeps harping, “He can’t hit a curveball, Schill.” We’ve argued about this at least 50 times. Seventh inning, Kendall at the plate, first pitch curveball, home run. I look over at the bench, and Vuk is shaking his head. I am so mad I can’t see straight, blaming Vuk for throwing a bad pitch. . . .

The inning ends. I walk into the dugout, pass Vuk without looking, and hear, “I said curveball. At no time did I say the word HANGING curveball.”

I also thought Jay Jaffe put it well, summing up feelings that I have towards Vukovich nicely - I can't say I always agreed with Johnny Vuk's old school line of thinking, but anybody who loves baseball like he did is alright by me:

As an outsider who never met Vukovich, I can’t speak to that, but it’s clear such individuals are vital to baseball. The stars put fans in the seats, but it’s the Vukoviches who perpetuate the game, and it’s a sad day to note that there’s one fewer to do that today.

The Return of Me and the Departure of Germano

2007-03-20T00:16:00.000-04:00

I'm back and I'm full of excuses.

Actually, I have a legitimate reason or two that explain my absence of late - I've been doing a little bit of "paid" freelance baseball watching and writing (I hesitate to say scouting because I'm not a scout nor do I have aspirations to ever be one...I'm just a guy who watches way too much baseball) for an up and coming (hopefully) amateur draft website right here on the world wide web. It was only a "paid" gig in that they hooked me up with a free subscription to the site (and the cheapest subscription at that...not that I'm complaining, I just find it funny), but I was in the neighborhood of some good college baseball and I would have been attending plenty of games anyway, so it made sense for me to go for it. Don't worry, I've been keeping up with the Phillies as much as ever...it's just now I've also filled my already overcrowded brain with stats and firsthand observations of Andrew Brackman, Josh Horton, and Sean Doolittle. This little project has taken up a good chunk of my free time lately, and as a result, Phillies Baseball (I can't believe I've stuck with such a bad name for so long) has gotten the shaft. I have plenty of ideas for new content as we approach the start of the MLB season, but not enough hours in the day to get everything I want to say out in a coherent, readable manner. That won't stop me from trying though...

I guess what I'm trying to say is this - if you are a regular who doesn't mind checking in every now and then and being disappointed by looking at Jim Jackson's face for over 2 weeks, then keep on hanging in there. I'm hopeful your patience will be rewarded one way or another. This site was created as an outlet to share my views about Phillies baseball (and all things baseball really) and it's served me well over the years. As long as it remained fun and I had the time, I said I was going to keep on doing it. Though time has been harder to come by lately, keeping this up has remained a lot of fun. So I'm going to keep on doing this in my sporadic, update when I can kind of way. I realize that this isn't the ideal way to run a website, but it's better than nothing, right?

Just to add some value to this post, let me just say that I am utterly confused by the news reported earlier today that Justin Germano was lost on waivers to the San Diego Padres. I know Germano was out of options, but it's hard to lose an interesting young arm (and an extreme groundball pitcher to boot) for nothing. Germano's GB% in 117 innings at Louisville (AAA) was 53.1%. He improved upon that upon being traded to the Phillies organization where he pitched 38 innings for the Red Barons with a ridiculous GB% of 60.5%. His K/9 may not as been as high as you'd like, but that is forgivable considering his groundball tendencies and his impeccable control. Germano's number one PECOTA comparable according to Baseball Prospectus is Charles Nagy - not a bad career there, especially through his peak years. It's hard to believe that Antonio Alfonseca is a better bet for the 2007 Phillies let alone the 2008, 2009, and 2010 squads.

Time to play devil's advocate for a moment and set forth opposing arguments. To be fair, it is interesting that Germano lasted all of the way to San Diego's turn on the waiver wire - you would think a pitching starved organization like the Nationals would have been all over the possibility of adding a cheap back of the rotation kind of arm. The loss of Germano can even be spun in a positive light - the Phillies truly believed he wasn't one of the better candidates to win a big league bullpen job and instead of just keeping him around for fear of losing him for nothing, they bit the bullet so the 25-man roster will be as talented as possible (again, in their eyes) come opening day. Another silver lining is Germano's ouster makes it more likely that Rule 5 draft pick Jim Warden will make the team. Warden has impressed this spring and could be a valuable ROOGY in 2007. At the very least, he has already made if farther than the other Rule 5 pick, Alfredo Simon. Simon was returned to the Texas Rangers earlier this week after disappointing the team mightily this spring.

My bottom line: it all comes down to trust. If you trust Pat Gillick and the Phillies, the move makes perfect sense. If you don't, it's a head scratcher. I suppose I'm just a mistrusting lad by nature, because I have a hard time wrapping my head around this one. Prove me wrong, PG, prove me wrong...

JJ to Join HK, LA, CW, and SF

2007-02-28T16:29:00.000-05:00

Jim Jackson to join the Phillies broadcast team as the pre-game and post-game host:

"We are pleased to have a broadcaster of Jim's caliber in our mix," said Brooks. "He brings a lot of experience with him, and a passion for baseball that not too many people were aware of."

Jackson, 43, has been broadcasting hockey games for 20 years, the last 14 with the National Hockey League's Philadelphia Flyers, but this will not be his first baseball experience.

I've always liked Jim Jackson enough, so I'm fine with the move. It should be interesting to see what kind of implications this has on the future of the Phillies broadcast booth though...the battle between Scott Franzke and Jim Jackson to replace Harry Kalas may indeed be on.

El Pulpo

2007-02-26T16:26:00.001-05:00

No comment necessary out of me.

Sethspeaks Speaks to Chris Coste

2007-02-26T16:25:00.000-05:00

Sethspeaks.net has an exclusive interview with everybody's favorite underdog, Chris Coste. There is plenty of insight to be gleaned from the conversation, so I recommend checking it out here. In the meantime, some of the finer points:

Coste on leadership: Jimmy is a very vocal leader and could be considered the captain. Utley is an on the field leader and he makes everyone around him want to play at a higher level, kind of what Michael Jordan did for his teammates. Howard is on a level of his own. He is the guy that can take some pressure off the rest of the team because he is the guy that the other team will always focus on. He is also easy to root for because he always wears that big "Ryan Howard Smile." And the thing that I will respect about him is that he is a great person and teammate behind the scenes.

SethSpeaks: Back to the book, I know I am occasionally asked for an update on where you're at. Have you decided upon a publishing house yet, and is there a timetable for the release of your book?

Chris Coste: I recently signed a book deal with Random House Publishing for my autobiography. I am in the process of writing it and it will be released in spring training of 2008.

SethSpeaks: Have you set any goals for what you want to accomplish in spring training?

Chris Coste: STAY HEALTHY AND MAKE THE DAMN TEAM!!!!!

SethSpeaks: Have you set any goals for yourself for the 2007 season?

Chris Coste: I really want to be healthy the entire season because I know that even if I start out the season on the bench, I can work my way into a more important role, just the way I did last year.

The thought of Chris Coste sitting at his computer and pounding away "STAY HEALTHY AND MAKE THE DAMN TEAM!!!!!" in all caps greatly amuses me.

Curt Schilling to Test Free Agency in 2008?

2007-02-24T18:26:00.000-05:00

Would a Curt Schilling-Philadelphia reunion make sense for either side?

Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton, and Jamie Moyer are all under contract through at least 2008. While this does leave one rotation spot free, the team should also be preparing for the major league jump of J.A. Happ and Zack Segovia by then. It also necessitates the assumption that there is no real possibility of the team re-upping Freddy Garcia at some point between now and next offseason. Scott Mathieson's return from injury should make him a candidate to earn a starting spot out of camp next season. In other words...it does not look likely that Schilling willbe retiring as a Phillie as I know so many Phillies fans had hoped.

But if you are a dreamer who longs for the glory days (well, glory year anyway) then this is news that warrants some excitement - though you have to suspend belief for a minute to make it all work out, it isn't entirely implausible a scenario. Myers and Hamels are locks to be here next season, Eaton is under contract but far from a slam dunk (mostly due to durability concerns) and hardly a guy that would preclude the signing of a pitcher of Schilling's caliber (assuming the guy is still pitching at a high level), and Moyer could, in theory anyway, retire (or be gently nudged out the door by Phillies management) at any given moment. Happ could prove unfit for big league service in '08 or the Phillies could decide they want to start his career off by using him out of the bullpen...this bullpen scenario is even more likely when it comes to Segovia.

So what does all this mean? I couldn't tell you (I say that a lot, don't I? Why do people keep this silly thing if I can't even answer my own hypothetical questions? Silly readers...). I will say this...I've always had the personal hunch that Schilling would end his career in Philadelphia. I have wavered on this opinion in recent years (being in Boston has helped me get a first-hand look at how much he really enjoys playing in such a baseball crazy environment), but I still think it is what he genuinely wants. Do the Phillies want him back? Will the Phillies even think that they need him back? There are still plenty of hurt feelings within upper management even with the general manager that traded him working in San Diego...the Ed Wade regime may be over, but many of his former staffers still are employed by the Phils. I had a feeling that Mike Mussina would end up a Phillie in 2007...I was wrong. I (and I'm hardly alone here, many people much smarter than I have maintained this belief for some time) still think that Curt Schilling will find his way to Philly once again...time will tell.

The Car Ain't Bad Looking Either

2007-02-23T01:11:00.001-05:00

I am negative ten months out of the year when it comes to the Phillies, but even I deserve a break. If you can't be disgustingly optimistic in February and March, when can you be? On that note, I present to you the picture of Brett Myers arriving in Clearwater from last week. The man looks good, does he not? Every year we hear about players arriving for spring training in "the best shape of their careers" or the even more ridiculous "the reason I sucked last year had nothing to do with me, it was my crappy eyesight," so it's easy to dismiss such meaningless rhetoric after being let down time and time again. However...it's nice to have photo evidence to back up such claims, is it not? Myers looks to be in great shape (he also looked fit and trim at his press conference announcing his new deal) and, if I may be so bold, his new beard gives him almost a John Smoltz-ian appearance. I admit that the last comment may qualify as disgustingly optimistic, but...'tis the season.

Phillies Sign Player Born in 90's

2007-02-22T14:23:00.000-05:00

I'm attempting to get back to doing lots of little posts rather than saving stuff up for mega-posts every few days like in the past. Spring training news stories lend themselves to this kind of treatment, so hopefully the change will work out. With that said, time for our first mini-scoop post: the Phillies latest international signing. Read all about it here (you'll need to click a link from that page and from there it opens up in a PDF...or you can just read what I wrote about it below).

Scott Mitchinson, Brad Harman, Tim Kennelly, Joel Naughton...all minor league talents that the Phillies have acquired through their very close working relationship with the powers that be involved with running baseball leagues, camps, and academies in Australia. The latest name to add to the list is outfielder Angus Roeger, a player signed just this past week by Phillies scout Kevin Hooker. Hooker first noticed Roeger while playing for the Australian U/17 team in Japan. He has said, "the first thing we noticed about Angus was his strong and powerful physique. Angus has an athletic frame, is a good runner for his size and tracks the ball well in the outfield."

All four of the previous big Australian signings listed above began their professional careers stateside with the GCL Phillies. Roeger is expected to spend 2007 finishing up his high school studies and attending the Major League Baseball Academy Program on the Gold Coast (upon further research, this program is entirely funded by MLB, runs for two months, is similar in style to spring training, and typically has all kinds of famous instructors including Chilli Davis and Rod Carew) with the eventual goal of reaching the U.S. and playing in the Gulf Coast League in 2008. The only financial terms mentioned in the article references the "lucrative Minor League Contract" that Roeger signed, but there is really no telling what that means - for a point of reference, Harman, arguably the Phillies most promising of the group of Aussies, signed for $50,000.

Catch Up

2007-02-20T16:37:00.000-05:00

Less than week into spring training...what have I missed so far? Everything and nothing...no real baseball news to report, but plenty of miscellaneous yet Phillies related stories to talk about...

Should the picture above concern anyone? It's spring training, he's always been a big guy, it could be just an especially unflattering shot...but then Will Carroll injected a bit of fertilizer onto the seed of doubt growing in my mind: "He has the look to me of someone who could become David Ortiz in a hurry, so he needs to make sure that he doesn’t put on much weight. (And by Ortiz, I mean an immobile power guy.)" Ortiz is a heck of a player, there is no arguing that, but that doesn't mean Phillies fans should want their 27 year old superstar National League first baseman moving up in weight class if he can help it.

Chase Utley, Social Activist: Political and social commentary aside (though the timing of this is quite funny if you ask me - here's why, in case you missed it), anybody else catch the story by Rob Maaddi of the Carlisle Sentinel that mentioned Utley has put on almost 20 pounds of muscle since the end of last season? He is listed at 185 pounds, but the reports claim he is now weighing in at a burly 204. All of the standard weight gain caveats apply (decrease in flexibility, alteration of swing mechanics, etc.), but I must admit I find the news exciting all the same - the prospect of a more powerful, more durable Utley is one that I can very easily get behind.

Any fans of either The Office or The Daily Show out there? Well, if you were truly a dedicated fan of either show then you'd know that Ed Helms (this guy) is a cousin of Wes Helms (this guy)...is it a small world or what?

"Pitching coach Rich Dubee has switched to uniform No. 30 in honor of former Phillie Cory Lidle." - Phillies.com. It was the last line of the notes section of just another generic spring training article, but it's a very nice gesture that definitely deserves another mention. Good for Dubee.
And finally...Athletics Nation has a tribute to Hunter S. Thompson that is well worth a glance if you've got the time. Check it out.

Pitchers and Catchers Report to Clearwater

2007-02-14T00:46:00.000-05:00

Fake Post

2007-02-07T23:31:00.000-05:00

So, I've been busy lately and I haven't been able to write about the issues that matter - mostly the Phillies fascinating pursuit of relief help. First, it was the rumored interest in Paul Shuey (offering him a minor league deal before he signed with the Orioles), then it was the last minute effort to retain Rick White (too late, he is an Astro now), then it was the rumored done deal with Rick Helling (I thought for sure this was set to be announced, but Helling changed his mind at the last minute and retired), and finally it's come down to the Dustin Hermanson sweepstakes (crazy that such a thing as a "Dustin Hermanson sweepstakes" exists, but here we are). Now that we are caught up to speed on the great reliever scramble of '07, on to the fake post - a rehash of my prospects post from a few days back, but this time with Baseball America's rankings in parenthesis next to my ranking (I just got the book today, so I'm excited...yes, I'm a dork). Oh, and I added my own comments at the bottom...so there is some new content after all. Lucky reader.

1. RHSP Carlos Carrasco (top notch A-ball numbers, I'd love to see the Phillies challenge him with a double jump to AA...though skipping levels hasn't worked too well with Carrasco in the past)

Carrasco's 2005 was a disaster as he reportedly tried to overthrow every fastball and, as a result of that, lost all command on it whatsoever. It wasn't as though his walk rate was abnormally high, but his hit rate jumped because hitters knew they could wait on his breaking stuff since that fastball wouldn't be close (an example of the semantical difference of poor command rather than poor control).

In 2006, Carrasco excelled. What changed? Carlos himself has been quoted as saying he learned to slow things down on the mound and realize the importance of fastball location over velocity. That's all well and good, but perhaps more important was the development of another strong secondary pitch - his curveball. In '05, all he threw was a fastball-change combo...easy pickings for professional hitters. By 2006, he was throwing a fastball that sits in the low 90s (92-94 typically, but it can be a bit flat at times), a plus change, and a developing (slowly but surely) power curve.

As of now, Carrasco is a damn fine pitching prospect but now quite among the elite. If he can add just a tick more velocity on his fastball, he could really bust out in A+/AA in 2007. His 6-3, 180 pound frame combined with his youth (he'll be 20 in March) could allow for the heater to be cranked up to mid-90s consistently and if so...watch out.

A name that I haven't often heard him compared to, but I'll throw it out there anyway is Ryan Madson. Their minor league numbers are very similar, they have similar builds, and similar repertoires (low 90s fastball, plus change, curve needs work). People may be down on Madson these days, but I still think he'll be a quality big leaguer for a long time. Carrasco has a bit more long-term upside (his fastball has gone up a tick in velocity every year since he signed), but I think it's a decent comp for the time being.

2. RHSP Scott Mathieson (TJ surgery shelves him for all of '07...still a young guy with plus stuff, profiles as either a future starter or relief ace) (5)

3. RHSP Kyle Drabek (as high a ceiling as any other prospect in the system...Rookie ball numbers and lack of maturity are red flags, but his talent is undeniable...Cole Hamels only dropped to the Phillies because of injury/immaturity, Phillies hope lighting strikes twice with Drabek) (2)

4. LHSP J.A. Happ (big jump up in '06, could work his way into Phillies rotation once the inevitable Adam Eaton injury occurs...you can't really blame Eaton though, those DVDs can be damn tough to open) (8)

5. OF Michael Bourn (old-school prototype leadoff man, would have been an ideal fit playing center field next to Burrell and Abreu...oh well, at least we now have C.J. Henry!...another year in AAA could serve him well as he'll indirectly compete with Shane Victorino to see who will be the Phils CF come 2008) (7)

6. RHSP Edgar Garcia (4)
7. LHSP Josh Outman (6)
8. 3B Michael Costanzo (12)
9. IF Adrian Cardenas (3)
10. OF D'Arby Myers (11)
(LHRP Fabio Castro) (NR)
11. RHRP Zack Segovia (14)
12. OF Greg Golson (10)
(C Carlos Ruiz) (13)
13. RHSP Justin Germano (NR)
14. LHSP Matt Maloney (9)
(LHRP Matt Smith) (30)
15. C Jason Jaramillo (24)
16. RHRP Joe Bisenius (16)
17. LHSP Daniel Brauer (22)
18. RHSP Kyle Kendrick (15)
19. OF Jeremy Slayden (26)
20. RHSP Jarrod Freeman (NR)
21. RHSP Drew Carpenter (17)
22. SS C.J. Henry (20)
23. C Lou Marson (19)
24. C Jesus Sanchez (NR)
25. 3B Welinson Baez (21)
26. OF T.J. Warren (NR)
27. RHRP Pat Overholt (23)
28. INF Jason Donald (27)
29. INF Brad Harman (18)
30. RHRP Brett Harker (NR)

Jim Ed Warden (25) and Heitor Correa (28) were both oversights on my part, they absolutely deserve spots on this list. Alfredo Simon was ranked 29th by BA; his inclusion on the list is also probably legitimate.

One Ranking I Liked: Jason Jaramillo (24) - I had him at 15, but would have been more than okay with dropping him down my list; BA went for it and had him way down in the lower third of the top 30. I just don't see it with Jararmillo - his floor is relatively stable (backup catcher), but his ceiling isn't really all the different in my mind (I just don't see him as a starting caliber catcher - below average hitting + average/overrated defense = nondescript prospect).

One Ranking I Did Not Like: Matt Smith (30) - Smith is already a quality major league relief pitcher and that should count for something; there are not 29 players currently in the Phillies minor league system that will have better careers than he will have. Guaranteed.

Looking back at my list I'd probably make the following edits (I originally compiled it in December and lots has changed since then in my mind): Drabek at 2 over Mathieson, Cardenas would move up a few spots, and Harman would leapfrog fellow middle infield prospects C.J. Henry and Jason Donald (I've long been a fan of Harman and I refuse to give up on him).

Myers Signs 3-Year Deal

2007-02-02T01:10:00.000-05:00

Brett Myers is now under club control for three more seasons after signing a three year contract worth $25.75 million dollars. More to come on this deal later, but I'll say what I said after the Chase Utley signing - good job, Phillies front office. The length of this deal makes it less risky than the Utley contract, but there are plenty of other factors (only buying out one year of free agency, Myers' past legal troubles and generally surly disposition, the fact that Myers is a pitcher and the inherent risks that comes with the territory) that will lead to interesting talking points over the next few days. The risks are many, but ultimately I'm a big fan of Myers the ballplayer and am extremely glad to see him under club control through 2009.

No matter where you stand on the deal itself, it's nice to have something Phillies related to talk about as we inch closer to the day pitchers and catchers report.

State of the Minor League System

2007-01-31T01:06:00.000-05:00

Everybody has their own take on their favorite team's farm system, so I figured I'd join in on the fun. This is a quick draft of a very preliminary list. As you can see, I'm not all that worried about Scott Mathieson's upcoming TJ surgery (if you're gonna have it done, get it done young), very optimistic about Mike Costanzo's upcoming AA season (more of a hunch than anything – a hunch based heavily on statistics [i.e. his monthly splits in A+], but a bit of a scouting hunch as well), and not quite sold that Jason Jaramillo's future is anything more than that of a backup catcher (there is still value there, but he's not the upper crust prospect that many Phillies fans believe...my opinion is closer to John Sickels with regards to JJ, but I still think he absolutely deserves a spot on any Phillies prospect list).

As with any system, outside of the few consensus top guys (of which the Phils have very, very few) the list gets very muddled. The majority of guys picked 20-30 were younger players that earned spots on the list more for their tools than performance (i.e. Henry, Marson, and Baez).

I slotted in players that will have a role on the '07 Phillies in parenthesis...Ruiz and Smith are assured of spots, while Castro will either start the season in the big league pen or in the high minors starting. My own quirkiness prefers to see them separate from the true minor leaguers on the list...it's probably dumb, but it makes it easier for me to organize.

1. RHSP Carlos Carrasco (top notch A-ball numbers, I'd love to see the Phillies challenge him with a double jump to AA...though skipping levels hasn't worked too well with Carrasco in the past)

2. RHSP Scott Mathieson (TJ surgery shelves him for all of '07...still a young guy with plus stuff, profiles as either a future starter or relief ace)

6. RHSP Edgar Garcia
7. LHSP Josh Outman
8. 3B Michael Costanzo
9. IF Adrian Cardenas
10. OF D'Arby Myers
(LHRP Fabio Castro)
11. RHRP Zack Segovia
12. OF Greg Golson
(C Carlos Ruiz)
13. RHSP Justin Germano
14. LHSP Matt Maloney
(LHRP Matt Smith)
15. C Jason Jaramillo
16. RHRP Joe Bisenius
17. LHSP Daniel Brauer
18. RHSP Kyle Kendrick
19. OF Jeremy Slayden
20. RHSP Jarrod Freeman
21. RHSP Drew Carpenter
22. SS C.J. Henry
23. C Lou Marson
24. C Jesus Sanchez
25. 3B Welinson Baez
26. OF T.J. Warren
27. RHRP Pat Overholt
28. INF Jason Donald
29. INF Brad Harman
30. RHRP Brett Harker

The 2006 draft brought in all kinds of desperately needed talent into the pipeline. Drabek (1), Cardenas (Supp. 1), Myers (4), and Carpenter (2) should make almost any Top 20 list this offseason.

Jason Donald (3) is another player who could draw consideration though I personally fear his high collegiate strikeout totals and inability to impress when hitting with wood as an amateur; he profiles best as a super-utility guy to me rather than a starting shortstop.

The Phillies are notorious for falling in love with toolsy outfielders come draft day (so much so that they loved Greg Golson more than Phil Hughes...but I digress). T.J. Warren (8), Dominic Brown (20), and Darin McDonald (12) are the newest group of tools-laden outfielders added to the system with a chance of maybe developing down the line...Warren is the most advanced of the group, but Brown has the most long-term potential - something about 6'5", 200 pound guys recruited to play football at Miami with pro potential both on the mound or in the outfield appeal to me. Warren and McDonald are both more advanced ballplayers in a traditional sense at this point, but Brown has the most long-term potential due to his freakish athleticism.

The Phils also added a few intriguing relief arms including Andrew Cruse (9), Sam Walls (10), and Will Savage (26). These guys may not have quite the ceiling as other, younger arms in draft have, but if I had to pick one player in the system to make it to the majors fastest I'd probably choose Walls...there's something to be said for that.

The Phillies also have an affinity for collecting big, tall, strapping young righthanded high schoolers. This year's haul included Jarrod Freeman (11) and Robert Roth (19) - two pitchers from baseball hotbeds Utah and Idaho, respectively. Freeman is very highly thought of within the organization and could emerge as a top 15 prospect next year at this time; Roth had a really rough debut in the GCL where he was extremely wild...he's a project, to say the least. Another young arm that has a shot to contribute (though I'm in the minority with this one amongst Phillies prospect mavens) is Michael Dubee (18), son of Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee. Michael comes out of a junior college in Oklahoma and could be far more than just the typical courtesy pick it appears to be.

RHP Ben Pfinsgraff - I wasn't all that high on him coming out of school (only so-so peripherals at Maryland, plus I saw him pitch this past year against BC and came away unimpressed...he's a short righthander with a an average fastball, not exactly my cup of tea), but his results after getting drafted were impressive enough that I can admit I may have been wrong about him. I mostly wanted to mention him because he was just one of the four Phillies draftees I got to see this past NCAA season - C Shawn McGill (BC), RHRP Sam Walls (NC State), and INF Herman Demmink (Clemson) being the others. McGill and Demmink are minor league filler (if either player ever dons an IronPig jersey, I’d be surprised), but Walls and perhaps Pfinsgraff have the potential to someday crack a big league bullpen.

The ones who got away include 15th rounder Riley Cooper (now playing WR for the National Champion Florida Gators), 31st rounder Bruce Billings, and perhaps the most painful of them all, 34th rounder Josh Thrailkill (enrolled as a freshman at Clemson).

Names worth storing away from the Phillies championship VSL squad: IF Redne Fuenmayor (previously mentioned), C Francisco Murillo (.299/.402/.502 in 221 VSL at bats), and pitchers Moises Melendez and Mauricio Romero. The VSL is as far as the majors as can be, but it doesn't hurt to just remember a couple extra names in the back of your mind...especially when the farm system is as bad as the Phillies is.

Spring Training Battles

2007-01-29T00:02:00.000-05:00

A while back we took stock of what the Phillies currently have on their roster; today we take a look at which players out there could fill the few remaining needs (OF, bullpen). Publicly, the Phillies say that they are confident going into spring training with six starting pitchers; if they do keep six starters, then the number of relief jobs up for grabs is reduced from two to one. The Phils are also making it clear that Antonio Alfonseca is guaranteed nothing – they claim that a strong spring is a prerequisite for membership on the ’07 staff. I’d be utterly shocked if “El Pulpo” isn’t on the 25-man roster come April. This leaves the Phils with $92.625 million committed to 23 players and two spots up for grabs – reserve outfielder and bullpen arm.

Outfield Candidates

Chris Roberson, Michael Bourn, Karim Garcia, and Greg Dobbs have to be considered the favorites to land the coveted job of fifth outfielder at this point. The thought of a Burrell/Rowand/Victorino everyday outfield still freaks me out quite a bit, so I’d love to see the team find a way to bring in another outfield bat, but we'll see.

Bullpen Candidates

Eude Brito, Fabio Castro, Jim Ed Warden, Alfredo Simon or Anderson Garcia (his name was just officially added to the 40-man roster this past week) all are in line to win jobs as middle relievers entering 2007; I believe the Phillies have given enough of an indication publicly that one of the two Rule 5 guys (Warden or Simon) will make the team out of camp. I think they keep Simon with the big club because they know there is no way they can send him to AAA without Texas wanting to reclaim him. Jim Ed Warden, the pitcher who is most ready to win a job, is the sort of undervalued commodity that could be sent back to the Phillies if they do decide to try and send him down. Cleveland is a pretty sharp organization, so it wouldn’t be too big a shock to see them accept Warden back with open arms. Then again…the Phillies may try to work something out with the Indians so that they can keep him – just a hunch, but it’s been what I’ve been hearing...

Longer shots at this point appear to be Joe Bisenius (only 23.1 innings above A+), Kane Davis, Justin Germano (could be sixth starter in-waiting at AAA Ottawa if/when Jon Lieber is dealt), Brian Sanches (long a personal favorite of mine), and Zack Segovia. An even longer shot to make the team is soon-to-be 27-year old righthander Yoel Hernandez – a darkhorse candidate if there ever was one considering he is coming off an injury shortened season that only had him pitch in 10.1 innings in all of ’06. All in all, I think the battle for the last job in the bullpen will be lots of fun – I give Pat Gillick a lot of grief for all of the bad moves he makes (luckily for PG, his terrible signing of Rod Barajas and his recent crappy add of Antonio Alfonseca occurred during my mini-vacation, so I let him off the hook there), but he has assembled a collection of pretty interesting arms and, assuming he allows them to duke it out in spring training, has done a fine job of putting his club in the best position to add cheap, useful bullpen help.

New Aaron Rowand Trade Rumor

2007-01-26T16:30:00.000-05:00

Buster Olney of ESPN.com is reporting that the Phillies and Padres are engaged in trade talks centering around Phillies CF Aaron Rowand. Hmm...interesting. (Oh, in case anybody ever follows the links, this rumor is Olney's but because it is behind the ESPN Insider wall I linked back to where it was mentioned on MLB Trade Rumors)

This rumor appears to have some legs to it for a couple of reasons: 1) Rowand's name has been tied to many a trade rumor this offseason...sometimes where there is smoke, there is fire, 2) it makes some sense for San Diego to be interested in obtaining another outfielder considering they go into spring training with only two sure-fire starting outfielders - CF Mike Cameron and RF Brian Giles, 3) the Phillies are rumored to want a relief pitcher in return...they've been hot after relief help for months now, and 4) Phillies management has gone out of their way to discuss their positive feelings about all things Jayson Werth over the past few weeks...Pat Gillick especially seems really, really confident that Werth is ready to contribute something substantial in 2007.

The rumored bullpen arm coming back to the Phillies is where things get dicey - the Padres have a pretty good pen, chock full of interesting arms, but it is hard to say how much they value Rowand at this point in time. Scott Linebrink would undoubtedly be the Phils top target, but he would almost certainly be too steep a price for the Padres to pay...right? Same probably goes for Cla Meredith, though he is far less of a known quantity than Linebrink at this point. Assuming the Phillies will be denied both Meredith and Linebrink, is there a fit? Potentially...random names to consider include RHPs Andrew Brown, Heath Bell, and Scott Cassidy. Any of those names would work (I've long been a fan of Bell, a former Met prospect), but the Phillies may want a bit more to sweeten the deal.

Deal I'd Like to See:

OF Aaron Rowand for OF Paul McAnulty and RHRP Heath Bell/Andrew Brown

Bell or Brown would help out in the bullpen in '07 and beyond and McAnulty could serve as a potential platoon mate with Jayson Werth in right (McAnulty destroyed righties in AAA last year - he hit .330/.416/.580 in 348 at bats while Werth has a slight advantage against lefties in his big league career).

Why Our Hometown Columnists Suck

2007-01-24T00:36:00.001-05:00

The boys over at Fire Joe Morgan are at it again, this time completely annihilating Bill Conlin's recent wretched offering. I don't have a single positive thing to say about Conlin's article, so I won't say a word...except for that as bad as Conlin's article is, it is no worse than Phil Sheridan's article from last Wednesday. Check this out:

If there is a lesson in all this, it is that numbers don't tell the whole story. This galls the sabermetricians and Money Ballers. It is completely lost on those who worry only about their fantasy teams. Nevertheless it is true that there are some things you just can't quantify, no matter what Bill James or Billy Beane say.

This issue is best understood by looking at last year's trade of Abreu to the New York Yankees. Well into October, many e-mailers complained that the Phillies would have won the extra couple games needed to reach the playoffs if they hadn't foolishly given Abreu away. But the fact is, the team didn't really start playing well together and winning until Abreu was gone.

You want numbers? The Phillies' record before the deal: 49-54. After the deal: 36-23.

Abreu is, by any measure, a very talented and productive player. He's a perfectly decent guy. And yet the Phillies were a better team without him (or Bell or Cory Lidle) on the roster.

In Victorino, the Phillies get a totally different kind of rightfielder. He said he expects to hit .300, score 100 runs and make a serious jump by stealing 30 to 40 bases.

On the first bold point: Post hoc ergo propter hoc is Latin for "after this, therefore because of this." Something happens, something else happens, therefore the original something is the cause of the something else. Correlation does not equal causation. If the Abreu trade is what Phil Sheridan wants to point at as the sole reason why the Phillies turned their season around, that's his business. I just happen to think that it is one of many, many other more logical reasons (say, the vast improvement of the pitching staff and the monstrous offensive output of Ryan Howard down the stretch).

On the second bold point: Here are Abreu's numbers in the categories Sheridan mentioned in his last eight big league seasons -

1999: .335 BA, 118 R, 19 SB
2000: .316 BA, 103 R, 27 SB
2001: .289 BA, 118 R, 36 SB
2002: .308 BA, 102 R, 31 SB
2003: .300 BA, 99 R, 22 SB
2004: .301 BA, 118 R, 40 SB
2005: .286 BA, 104 R, 31 SB
2006: .297 BA, 98 R, 30 SB

Abreu is a totally different player than a guy who hits .300, scores 100 runs, and steals 30-40 bases? Abreu's 162 Game Averages are as follows: .302 BA, 104 R, 30 SB. True, Victorino is a different player in that he'll play a much better right field than Abreu ever did. It's also true that Bobby Abreu has walked over 100 times in 8 of his 9 full big league seasons with a total of 205 career homers. I understand the vast differences in salary between the two players, but when discussing their respective abilities between the lines...it's not even close.

What was the point of this post? Honestly, I couldn't tell you. Just an excuse to rant and rave against the local media (and maybe to continue to obsess about the Abreu deal...I know it's not healthy to still be so upset by it, but here we are). Anyway, I feel a lot better now, thanks.

The Utley Deal Revisited

2007-01-23T00:23:00.000-05:00

Lots of good stuff to come, but for now we have more on the Chase Utley signing. The more I think about it, the more I like it - Tom Tango broke it down in numbers:

Utley: 7/85, paying for 4.5 WAR.

Is Utley crazy? What and incredibly stupid signing by Utley, and a brilliant signing by the Phillies.

Where to begin? Utley is an excellent hitter. Not the top end, but the set right below that. He’s +3 wins above average.

As for his fielding, the Fans love him, Dewan loves him. He’s got to be +1 win above the average 2B.

I’m also harsh on 2B compared to others, and I treat it as a neutral position (like 3B). No bonus points for being able to play 2B.

Overall, he’s +4 wins above average, meaning +6 wins above replacement. The Phillies paid him like he’s +4.5 WAR (or +2.5 wins above average).

Chase Utley deserved a 7/135 deal, including an arbitration discount for the 1st three years. (Otherwise, he would have warranted a 7/164 deal.) He accepted 85 million, meaning he left 50 million$ on the table. Which Carlos Lee somehow managed to take.

By the numbers, the Phillies risky re-signing of Chase Utley doesn't look so risky after all. I can't really put into words how positive I am that this was a good move by the Phillies, but trust me on this one - it was a stroke of genius.

Utley Signs 7-Year Deal

2007-01-21T12:41:00.000-05:00

This is a huge deal -

Chase Utley exchanged marriage vows with his fiancée on Saturday afternoon in San Francisco.

A day later, the All-Star second baseman made a similar long-term commitment to the Phillies, agreeing to a seven-year, $85 million contract that will keep him in Philadelphia through the 2013 season. Though Utley will make less annually up front and more toward the end, this deal averages a little more than $12 million a season.

My initial reaction is simple - this is a great deal for Chase Utley, the Phillies organization, and the fans of Philadelphia. Although, for Utley's sake, I hope that he signed a prenup...you know, just in case.

Links to the Past

2007-01-19T00:20:00.000-05:00

This Friday's edition of Phillies Baseball = random linkage

Vote Phillies in 2008! - I love it...too bad I'm not clever enough to come up with a joke to add, but I think the novelty of getting a "Phillies in '08" bumper sticker is enough. I'd prefer to see the local nine take care of business in '07, come to think of it...
Trust Buster? - Read this...and then read every single other post on the site. Fire Joe Morgan is one of my absolute favorite sites on the web - it's one of the handful of sites that I check every day without fail. It's a special treat whenever they write about a subject I'm sure anybody reading this site right now is quite interested in. Ken Tremendous (my favorite writer from FJM) tears apart Buster Olney's recent blog entry through his usual blend of logic, stats, and snark.
The Phillies might lower the tall three-sided sign in the parking lot beyond the centerfield wall that obstructs the view from the ballpark to the city skyline. They also might make it a two-sided sign, affording even a better view of the city. Work on the alterations appears to already be under way - Figures. I've had season tickets in either section 420 or 421 (behind home plate) since the new ballpark opened...up until the upcoming season, of course. This year, we've finally decided to change things up and move down by the first line...figures. Anyway, it's still a good idea to lower the sign...especially for those lucky enough to be sitting in my old sections.

Brian Lawrence?

2007-01-18T00:06:00.000-05:00

Consider the source, but John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports the following:

Brian Lawrence, a free-agent starter the Mariners had some interest in signing, seems to be leaning toward signing with Philadelphia.

This is a report that comes out of left field, so to speak, but it is a pleasant surprise to hear all the same. I wrote this about Lawrence waaaaaay back in November of '05:

Lawrence will be 30 in April, so what you see is what you get with him by now. His first two years in the league were good, but they were in 2001 and 2002. Lawrence has been a below average starter the past three seasons (ERA+ of 94 in 2003, 97 in 2004, and bottoming out at 80 in 2005), but he does still have value. He has thrown at least 195 innings the last 4 seasons and fits in nicely at the back end (4^th or 5^th guy) of a rotation.

Not particularly insightful baseball commentary on my part, but I'd like to think the general sentiment (Lawrence works as a guy you take a flier on for the back of the rotation) hit home. Unfortunately, since November of 2005 this has happened:

Washington Nationals right-hander Brian Lawrence appears done for the season after undergoing surgery yesterday to repair what the team called "extensive" tears of both the labrum and rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder.

I can not imagine that "extensive" tears of both the labrum and rotator cuff in one's throwing shoulder are fun injuries to bounce back from, but Lawrence claims he is fit and ready to go heading into spring training. Without breaking down Lawrence's career in too much detail (that would come after he signs here...which is far from a sure bet, as you'll come to realize if you read on), I do think that there are four reasons why adding Brian Lawrence to the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies is a fine idea:

The Price is Right - There is no way that Lawrence will command a 2007 salary in excess of the deal that Antonio Alfonseca (1-year, $550,000 base, $550,000 more in innings-based incentives) is set to sign with the Phillies. There have been rumblings that a few of the teams in on Lawrence have only gone so far as to offer him a minor league deal - the demand for pitching may be sky high, but teams are only willing to go so far when the pitcher in question is coming off "extensive" tears of both the labrum and rotator cuff.
The Time is Right - The Phillies currently have six quality major league starters on their staff; if they signed Lawrence, it would be as the seventh starter/swing man in the bullpen. Coming off such an "extensive" injury, it would be foolish for a contending team to rely on Lawrence in any kind of meaningful way (say as a 4th or 5th starter). If the Phils signed Lawrence, they could use him out of the pen to exploit particular matchups rather than expect him to take the ball every fifth day and run with it; this would also allow the Phillies to closely monitor Lawrence's innings early on in the season. A Lawrence signing would also free up the Phillies to really get serious about dealing one of their excess starting pitchers, if that is the route they decide to take.
He is the Anti-Ryan Franklin - This should be reason enough to sign the guy. Brian Lawrence may actually be the Bizarro World version of Franklin - the Franklin signing looked like a disaster from the start last year for all kinds of reasons, not the least of which being the fact he was an extreme flyball pitcher. Lawrence has a career GO/AO ratio of 1.70 and had numbers at the top of the league in the category in both 2001 and 2002 (2.01 and 2.21 respectively). When going well, Lawrence is capable of throwing both a plus slider and a plus sinking fastball for consistent strikes. From the Phillies perspective, adding a guy capable of inducing a rally killing double play groundball to the bullpen is a giant plus. Lawrence's slider/sinker combo would make him an effective big league pitcher if used properly out of the pen. Enough about Lawrence's crazy groundball tendencies, let's not lose sight of what is really important here - the opportunity to bash Ryan Franklin any chance we can get. It never gets old!
Brian Lawrence: Potential ROOGY? - In his career, Lawrence has had all kinds of trouble getting out lefties (career 1.57 WHIP against portsiders). This stat makes it hard for any team to justify giving him another chance as a starter in the big leagues. Fortunately, if used properly, Lawrence could never have to see a southpaw at the plate ever again. Instead, he could be deployed as a RighthandedOneOutGuY (see the ROOGY?). Lawrence has a career WHIP of 1.12 in 511.1 innings pitched against righties; to put that in perspective, only 4 starters had lower overall WHIPs last season (Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Roy Halliday, and Mike Mussina). The conversion to the pen, specifically as a ROOGY, could tack on years to the end of Lawrence's career.

One last note of caution concerning Lawrence: For a guy so reliant on throwing sliders of varying velocities, the shoulder injury represents a major, major concern. If for some reason Lawrence can not throw the same set of pitches he did pre-injury, he could become a terribly ineffective pitcher very quickly. If as many teams are as interested as the newspapers say, then it would not be a stretch to say that Lawrence has been given a clean bill of health and is throwing pain-free. However, nobody will really know how his slider will feel until after he starts dialing it up in game-time situations.

Of course, this entire discussion could all be a moot point as this whole rumor could be based on a misunderstanding by Hickey. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the team hottest on Lawrence's tail for a long time now, so it is not a stretch to imagine that Hickey simply confused the two Pennsylvania baseball teams.

Arbitration Figures and More

2007-01-17T15:26:00.000-05:00

Phillies arbitration figures are out. Here is what the player requested and what the team offered:

Chase Utley – offered $4.5 million/requested $6.25 million
Brett Myers – offered $5.0 million/requested $5.90 million
Geoff Geary – offered $0.750 million/requested $0.925 million

Aaron Rowand already accepted a $4.350 million offer. Ryan Madson accepted a $1.100 million offer. Once Utley, Myers, and Geary agree to terms then all players expected to be on the 25-man roster this spring will have their salaries set at a fixed price. It is more than likely that Carlos Ruiz and Matt Smith will get the major league minimum ($380,000) in their first full seasons. Ryan Howard, Chris Coste, and Shane Victorino all could conceivably get paid the minimum, but are expected to get some bump in their salaries (Howard to keep the reigning MVP happy, Victorino as an acknowledgement that he’ll play a lot in ’07, and Coste as a reward for his years of minor league servitude).

In other news, Marcus Hayes drops a good bit of information in his most recent offering:

Madson hopes to regain that rhythm. He won't start throwing until next month, about a month later than when he prepares to be in a starting rotation. He also will abandon his potentially devastating curveball, a pitch that requires frequent use and better serves starters, and instead refine the slider that he tinkered with last year.

It’s a shame to lose the curve, but the reasoning is sound – hopefully the slider progresses nicely this spring.

A lefthanded hitter [Greg Dobbs] who plays first base and third base, if he has a big spring it could entice the Phillies to shelve Coste, who plays the same positions. Dobbs would be a second lefty bat, along with Karim Garcia or Randall Simon, who agreed to minor league deals.

Rod Barajas, Abraham Nunez, and Jayson Werth are guaranteed roster spots (assuming good health). This leaves two open bench jobs – presumably a backup outfielder and a backup infielder/utility guy. The recent signing of Greg Dobbs complicates the filling out of the bench. I still think a fifth outfielder will materialize one way or another (whether it be Karim Garcia [the current favorite], Chris Roberson, or a to-be-determined acquisition remains to be seen) and, as of this moment, I’d think the last job on the bench will come down to Dobbs and Chris Coste. Randall Simon is also in the mix, but his chances of making the team will be greatly hindered by the fact he can only play first base – the lack of positional flexibility is something the Phillies frown upon.

I’m not one for getting emotion and sentiment getting in the way of the bottom line when building a ballclub, but even I would have to admit that it would be somewhat tragic to see C/1B/3B Chris Coste get squeezed off the roster with another last minute addition to the team. Last year it was the acquisition of David Dellucci that kept Coste in AAA and this year it looks like the late additions of C Rod Barajas and 1B/3B Greg Dobbs could make Coste’s presence on the roster appear superfluous to the Phillies decision-makers. Dobbs ability to at least play semi-competently in the corner outfield spots could allow the Phillies to keep both Dobbs and Coste with Garcia, Roberson, and the other OF candidates heading to Ottawa.

And then the team made it known that they wanted a better backup to Ruiz. Why? " 'Lack of experience,' " said Coste, putting air quotes around the phrase. He understands that the Phillies are uncomfortable with his unorthodox catching style and the fact that he is a converted pitcher and infielder. "It's a mirage. Because they don't see me as a top-line catcher, I must be bad."

The fact that Coste put air quotes around “lack of experience” cracks me up. How is it that a ballplayer understands the many fallacies of inherently found in making oneself a slave to the “veteran presence” and “proven” commodities while the powers that run the team from the front office can seem to grasp similar ideas? Coste gets it, the Phillies don't. There is a serious problem with that. Rod Barajas has plenty of big league experience; he is inarguably a “proven” player. The only problem is that all he has “proven” to this point is that he is a pretty lousy major league baseball player. That said, Barajas was not born a “proven” player – at one point in his life he was just a minor leaguer waiting on his own opportunity to reach the majors and get a chance to “prove” his worth. I know I harp on this all the time and it may seem like I’m borderline obsessive about it all, but the inability of Phillies management in recent years to improve upon the periphery of their spectacular core has been the reason why this team has not reached the postseason in over a decade. Even the most casual observer can identify the very best players in the league (and in some cases, the very worst as well), but it is hard to distinguish between the large number of guys that fall somewhere in the middle of the player performance spectrum. Signing Rod Barajas for $2.5 million with Chris Coste and Carlos Ruiz already on the roster just goes to show the difficulties the Phillies still have with this concept.

Hayes also dispels the notion that Fabio Castro is definitely ticketed to Ottawa or Reading to make up for some of the innings lost last season and to prepare himself for a starting role; Mike Arbuckle himself says that Castro has a very good chance of winning a bullpen job out of spring training. If this were to happen, the pen would sure look a lot like it did at the end of last season, no? If Jon Lieber is kept (and that plot thickens as Adam Eaton recently said that he'd be a "good soldier" and pitch out of the bullpen without complaint), there is only one remaining spot in the bullpen open for competition. If Castro wins it, the Phillies would go into 2007 with a staff made up of Brett Myers, Freddy Garcia, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Jon Lieber, Adam Eaton, Tom Gordon, Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary, Antonio Alfonseca, Matt Smith, and Fabio Castro.

2007 Phillies (As of 1/16)

2007-01-16T15:23:00.000-05:00

An unannounced (and quite frankly unplanned) month off from the site did me some good. That said, it’s nice to be back and hopefully posting will resume on at least a semi-regular schedule for the foreseeable future. Without further ado, here's a quick look at the 2007 Phillies as currently assembled (salary figures in parentheses are arbitration estimates and ages are as of August 1, 2007):

Catchers:

Rod Barajas – (C) – Age 31 – 2.500 million
Carlos Ruiz – (C) – Age 27 – 0.380 million
Chris Coste – (C/1B/3B) – Age 34 – 0.380 million

Infielders:

Ryan Howard – (1B) – Age 27 – (.500 million)
Chase Utley – (2B) – Age 28 – (4.500 million)
Jimmy Rollins – (SS) – Age 28 – 8.000 million
Wes Helms – (3B) – Age 31 – 2.550 million (includes .500 million signing bonus)
Abraham Nunez – (IF) – Age 31 – 2.100 million

Outfielders:

Pat Burrell – (LF) – Age 30 – 13.000 million
Aaron Rowand – (CF) – Age 29 – 4.350 million
Shane Victorino – (RF) – Age 26 – 0.380 million
Jayson Werth – (OF) – Age 28 – 0.850 million (extra .150 million in incentives)

Starting Pitchers:

Brett Myers – (SP) – Age 26 – (5.000 million)
Freddy Garcia – (SP) – Age 31 – 10.000 million
Cole Hamels – (SP) – Age 23 – 0.380 million
Adam Eaton – (SP) – Age 29 – 7.875 million (includes 1.000 million signing bonus, can earn .250 each for 200 and 220 IP)
Jamie Moyer – (SP) – Age 44 – 7.000 million (includes 1.000 million signing bonus)
Jon Lieber – (SP) – Age 37 – 7.500 million

Relief Pitchers:

Tom Gordon – (RP) – Age 39 – 7.000 million
Antonio Alfonseca – (RP) – Age 35 – 0.550 million (extra .550 in incentives)
Ryan Madson – (RP) – Age 26 – 1.100 million
Geoff Geary – (RP) – Age 30 – (1.200 million)
Matt Smith – (RP) – Age 28 – 0.380 million

What does it all mean from a roster construction/dollars and cents standpoint? The roster as currently stands includes the above 23 players at a cost of 87.475 million dollars. The Phillies owe Jim Thome 5.500 million dollars, thus pushing the total payroll cost to 92.625 million bucks. The roster as currently composed has a need of one outfielder and two relief pitchers; it also has a surplus of one starting pitcher. How these needs will be meet (and, perhaps more importantly, how the surplus of starting pitching is dealt with) should make for an interesting topic of discussion as spring training approaches.

Lots of Random News

2006-12-18T00:43:00.000-05:00

Over a week without a post…it’s kind of a disgrace, I know. However, in my defense, I’ve been a bit preoccupied with other things…most notably obsessing over the inevitable giveaway of my favorite Philly sports athlete, Allen Iverson. Losing my favorite Sixer and favorite Phillie all in the same year is a bit much to take, so cut me a little slack here (other less fun reasons for the lack of Phillies coverage revolve around the standard end of semester catch-up period and final exams...but that was a far less fun answer). Enough about that though, let’s check in and see what we’ve missed with regards to the pro sports franchise closest to a title in Philly.

So what have we missed? Honestly, not all that much. The Bobby Livingston era was short lived, Cole Hamels continues to say and do the right things (remember when his maturity, or lack thereof, was a major question mark?), and Dayton Moore, the guy I wanted to see get a chance to run things with the Phils, continues to make baffling decision after baffling decision.

The Bill James interview in the Sunday Inquirer was definitely a quality read. Praise for Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins is always welcomed, I loved the analysis on the myth of protection, and the comments about the ballpark were interesting as well. It wasn't a topic that James touched on per se, but I have to admit that I've come around to the idea that Charlie Manuel is the right manager for this club heading into 2007. His weaknesses are very clear (in-game strategy, bullpen usage), but his strengths are a bit harder to discern - he gets big points in my book for his ability, I assume real but perhaps imagined, to maintain a positive atmosphere around his club (and let's be honest, that can't be easy to do in Philly). I think Manuel deserves a ton of credit for the development of the many young players that have prospered with the Phillies in recent years - most notably reigning MVP Ryan Howard. Manuel knows hitting and the Phillies consistently roll out quality hitters...there may be something to that. There is still much work to be done from an empirical research standpoint on the effect managers have over the course of the season, but my natural inclination is to believe that managers are statistically insignificant for the most part (maybe the top 5/bottom 5 have a meaningful impact, but I'd guess that the middle 20 are all very closely bunched).

EDIT: No sooner did I post this did I venture over to The Good Phight where dajafi had just posted a much better, more in-depth look into Charlie Manuel's strengths and weaknesses as a manager. As soon often the case, one of the writers at The Good Phight has managed to express what I was thinking much more eloquently than I ever could have. Go check it out, it's worth your time.

Two positives posts (here and here) from Baseball Prospectus have been written about the Phillies acquisition of Freddy Garcia. I still hate giving up on Gio Gonzalez so soon (if the Phillies really preferred his inclusion in the deal rather than give up Aaron Rowand as rumored, then I'm even more upset), but the return was enough that I can now say I'm officially on board with the move. As far as Gonzalez goes, Baseball America just mentioned he would have ranked second on the Phillies prospect list (same place I had him on mine, for the record) and offered up a brief scouting report to boot.

In more prospect news, both Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels have rolled out their lists of top Phillies prospects over the past few days. I have a ton more to say about these lists, but I'll actually save that for a separate post...and this won't be one of the many instances of me saying I'll mention something later and then forgetting all about it. I'm a prospects junkie, so I love talking about young guys any chance I get...expect more shortly on the topic.

The Tigers just signed Jeremy Bonderman, a guy who won't be a free agent until after 2008, to a whopping extension. The Phillies have a young righthanded starter by the name of Brett Myers who won't hit free agency until after the '08 season...if you are running the Phillies, do you consider making Myers a similar offer to lock him up through the 2010 season?

Belated Phillies Rule 5 Update

2006-12-09T17:18:00.000-05:00

So the Winter Meetings are over and we've all had a couple of days to digest everything that has happened since the beginning of the week. Hidden under the hype created by the big Freddy Garcia deal was the not quite as important, but still relevant news that the Phillies adding three players at the annual Rule 5 draft. Much as been about Pat Gillick's reputation as a talent evaluator (and rightly so) and the impact of his skills in this aspect of his job come into play every year when it is time to pluck relatively unknown minor leaguers off of the rosters of your competition in the Rule 5 draft. Gillick's track record of success (Kelly Gruber, Manny Lee, and most famously, George Bell) is reason enough to be optimistic in feeling that at least one of the three names called by the Phillies last week at the Rule 5 will contribute, in some way or another, to the Philadelphia Phillies success in 2007...and hopefully beyond.

The sexiest names (i.e. guys with the most upside/guys that I would have seen become Phillies) that were selected were C Jesus Flores (Nationals) and former number one overall pick OF Josh Hamilton (Cubs, traded to Reds), but neither player was available by the time the Phillies picked...a trade involving either player could have been worked out, but obviously the Phillies decided it was best to go in a different direction. Fair enough, especially considering the talented arms they added to the roster by the end of the day. So without further ado, let's meet the newest members of the Phillies baseball family - RHP Alfredo Simon, RHP Jim Ed Warden, and C Ryan Budde.

Simon is the most recognizable name of the bunch as he does not actually need an introduction to the Phillies family, but a reintroduction - he pitched for Clearwater as recently 2004, the same year he was dealt to San Francisco in the Felix Rodriguez trade. Simon was once a highly thought of prospect in the Phillies chain and it was disappointing to see him tacked on in the aforementioned deal with the Giants, but the Phillies were very smart to pick him back up the first chance they got. Mike Arbuckle's comments are very encouraging:

"[Simon] has a power arm," said Mike Arbuckle, the team's assistant general manager for scouting and player development. "His numbers aren't good, but he's been throwing real well in winter ball, up to 98 [mph]. He's one of those high-ceiling, high-risk guys that, based on our reports from winter ball, maybe is starting to put things together. We thought it was worth taking a look."

More good news comes courtesy of the Dallas Morning News:

Baltimore selected Simon, who recently had been recalled from his winter league job in the Dominican Republic in an attempt to keep buzz about him to a minimum. Baltimore took the hard-throwing 25-year-old and dealt him to Philadelphia, where former Rangers scout Charlie Kerfeld is an assistant to GM Pat Gillick.

Simon's drop in velocity this past year was a huge concern of the Giants and a big part of the reason they dropped him from their 40-man roster at the beginning of the offseason. Texas picked him up, sent him to winter ball, and watched his velocity take off. When he got recalled many were worried that he had hurt himself, but it was merely a ploy by the Rangers to hide their investment. I know I get unnecessarily excited for bottom of the barrel relief guys (see my love of Chris Booker last year if you don't believe me), but I really think the Phillies may have found a keeper in Simon. Good relief help is everywhere, it just takes time, effort, and the desire to go out and find it.

For better or worse, Jim Ed Warden has been called more of a "gimmicky" reliever than a pitcher likely to make a serious impact in the bigs. The beauty of relief pitching, though, is that these two things are not mutually exclusive - you can be "gimmicky" and still a success in the majors so long as some team out there is smart enough to give you a chance (check Chad Bradford's chapter in Moneyball for a far better description of this). Bradford has had a pretty damn good career flying under the radar all these years (career 132 ERA+ guys don't grow on trees), so it would be foolish to predict that kind of success for Warden...but you never know. For the relatively small price of $50,000, it sure doesn't hurt to take a guy to camp and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle. At the very least, Warden's funky delivery will give fans desperate for baseball action yet another reason to watch spring training games this year.

John Manuel at Baseball America had this to say about Warden:

Relievers Levale Speigner (low 90s fastball, hard curve) and Jim Ed Warden (lowered arm slot, heavy, low-90s sinker) both could stick, Speigner with the Nationals and Warden with the Phillies, if they are at their best next spring.

Arbuckle on Warden:

He's an interesting guy," Arbuckle said. "He's a different-look guy, a 6-foot-7 sidearmer. He's got a real good sink on his fastball, throws up to 93 [mph] from the side. He's worth taking a look at, because he is deceptive because of his size and arm slot."

Relief pitchers that can potentially induce ground ball outs with low-90s sinkers have a tendency of finding jobs in the majors...we'll see what happens with Warden this spring.

Fearless prediction: Either Alfredo Simon or Jim Ed Warden will make the Phillies out of spring training and pitch significant innings for the big club by mid-season 2007. If I had to bet, I'd say Simon makes the team and Warden is stashed at Ottawa after some kind of arrangement is worked out between the Phillies and Cleveland.

The Trade

2006-12-07T00:50:00.000-05:00

So I said I was stunned and not in a good way.

Well after thinking about it for a little while, I feel a bit better...though I'm still not convinced this was the right deal to make. Freddy Garcia is all but guaranteed to throw 200+ innings of at worst league average ball - an especially valuable thing this day and age. Garcia is also a free agent after this season and will almost definitely be classified as a Type A player at season's end - even if he walks after '07 (which at this point would be best for all parties involved...but we have a year to go before really discussing this matter), the Phillies would receive draft pick compensation that should result in the addition of a prospect close to the quality of Gio Gonzalez. I like Gonzalez way more than most (he'd rank right up there with Carlos Carrasco as the top prospect in the organization...putting up the kind of numbers he did in AA at his age is something pretty special), but the Phillies have some degree of starting pitching depth in the minors where they could move a player of his quality. Gavin Floyd is, quite regrettably, a non-factor in this deal. Obviously the White Sox had interest in him, but he is not a player you can really afford to lose too much sleep over losing at this point - I was as big a Floyd fan as can be for a long while and I would have been ill to see him moved in a trade where the Phillies got nothing back in return...luckily, moving him for Garcia is an okay enough deal that I'm not ill to see him go. Forgive me from rambling somewhat incoherently from point to point, but it's late...that's my excuse and I'm sticking with it. The potential Myers-Hamels-Garcia-Eaton-Moyer rotation doesn't look so bad (though the Brett Myers trade talk has quietly begun...just a warning), so while the trade is not without major risk (mainly my fear that Gio becomes a star), it still improves the club greatly going into 2007.

It's nearly impossible to judge any kind of offseason transaction without considering the moves that will be made (or not made) because of it - the Garcia deal can not really be judged in a vacuum because it now changes the needs/wants of the Phillies going forward. It has been mentioned before that a deal with the White Sox for pitching would be the precursor to a Jon Lieber deal...if the Phillies can use their now expendable starter (Lieber) as the valuable trade chip that he has become (especially in this market) to acquire an impact bat for the outfield and/or an elite back of the bullpen arm, then things would begin to look up again. The Phillies also have the "problem" of having two big league quality center fielders - the thought of Shane Victorino and Aaron Rowand patrolling the outfield is too disheartening to entertain, so we'll assume the powers that be that run the Phils are smart enough to deal Rowand while the market for him exists. Rowand and Lieber both represent valuable trading chips...time for the Phillies to make their next big move.

Garcia In; Floyd, Gonzalez Out

2006-12-06T22:56:00.000-05:00

I'm stunned.

And not in a good way.

Trade Winds

2006-12-06T01:11:00.000-05:00

The latest:

Phillies deal OF Aaron Rowand and either RP Ryan Madson or SP Gavin Floyd to the White Sox for SP Freddy Garcia, SP Mark Buerhle, or SP Javy Vazquez...of those three, I think the most likely to be involved in a deal with the Phillies is Garcia by a long shot

This deal works in tandem with this happy little trade over here:

Phillies deal SP Jon Lieber to the Brewers for either OF Kevin Mench or OF Geoff Jenkins and either RP Jose Capellan or RP Derrick Turnbow

Potentially this would be the Input/Output (I used the most likely players involved for the sake of the example):

In - Garcia, Out - Lieber
In - Mench, Out - Rowand
In - Capellan, Out - Floyd

It is kind of a lateral move in some respects, but one that I think I would endorse. Now the question is simple - will it happen?

Winter Meetings

2006-12-05T20:43:00.000-05:00

Day two of the Winter Meetings is almost in the books and so far there is not a whole lot to report on. Normally, I love reporting free agency rumors and coming up with all kinds of wild trade ideas during this time of year, but the relative inactivity around the league thus far gives the whole event a different feeling than in years past. When it is all talk and no action for this long into the offseason, it's only human nature to begin to tune out the talk until a big move actually goes down. It almost seems silly to obsess over every tiny bit of Phillies related news that some random newspaper on the other side of the country decides to report on...as I've come to realize over time, I'm a silly guy who can't help but get wrapped up in the excitement of roster management - even when I try to stay away, there's something about baseball that pulls me back in, time after time. So with that said, let's get ourselves caught up on some of the latest Phillies related news:

Phillies announce new broadcast team

No big changes here unless you missed the news of Scott Graham's firing from last month (Graham's departure has been more or less confirmed as a decision made by the Phillies and not Graham himself, by the way). Gary Matthews joins the gang as the newest color commentator, Chris Wheeler will reassert himself by doing more play-by-play than in years past, and Scott Franzke further establishes himself as Harry Kalas' heir apparent...though not for at least three more seasons per HK's latest contract extension. I know many fans dislike both Wheeler and Franzke (in the case of Wheels you can substitute "hate" for "dislike"), and many are worried that HK is slipping, but the Phils five man rotating booth is still one of the best in the game by default - take a listen to MLB.TV someday and you'll realize how bad the quality of announcing is these days. This isn't an excuse for subpar announcing, but it's important to remember that it's all relative.

Your newest Phillie: Kane Davis

Davis is a good idea in theory, but not a terribly important addition in practice (nothing personal, Kane). There is no better way to fill out the few remaining spots of your bullpen then by auditioning a bunch of live arms making the big league minimum in spring training, keeping the ones that impress the most, and then stashing the others in AAA in/when they are needed to help out the big club. There is no more unpredictable subset of baseball players than relief pitchers and, outside of the well established, well known elite class of relievers that you just know will have above average years, there really isn't all that much difference between a Kane Davis/Brian Sanches/Clay Condrey-type when compared to any of the relievers making big bucks this offseason (Joe Borowski, David Weathers, et al.) - the only major difference between the those two groups is one of opportunity...somebody once gave Borowski/Weathers a chance to perform, while Davis/Sanches/Condrey are still waiting.

Both Borowski and Weathers had good seasons last year and are good bets to have at least league average quality seasons in 2007; both players are nice relievers and I don't mean to take anything away from their accomplishments in the big leagues. It's just that it makes so much more sense to find the Borowski's and Weathers' of the world before they become the big-time free agent relievers - get them while they are youngish and competing with other AAA arms for a spot on the big team in spring. It can be done though finding quality bullpen help really is a crapshoot from year to year - near equal parts art, science, and luck.

Bringing in Kane Davis is a step in the right direction...even though Davis' minor league track record is extremely spotty. He does have the strength of a very, very good 62.2 innings pitched at AAA in 2005 going for him, so he is far from a lost cause. That said, take this signing for what it is: a low-cost, low-impact move that at worst provides depth for the pen in Ottawa and at best gives the Phillies a cheap extra bullpen option at some point in 2007.

Pujols is bitter, but don't worry - it was all a big misunderstanding

A non-story masquerading as news...

Dallas Green speaks his mind

Off the top of my head, I remember Dallas Green publicly calling out Scott Rolen (multiple times), Charlie Manuel, and Pat Burrell (if I missed someone recent, let me know). What exactly does he think he is accomplishing by this? Why does the Phillies organization condone this kind of behavior? Green's comments about Burrell were not all that offensive (especially compared to what he has said in the past), but they still served no practical purpose - why say anything at all? I know Dallas still has a fancy title within the organization and is still revered by some Phillies fans for his work with the '80 club, but I see no reason why he is still a paid employee of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Last, but not least: the BIG rumor(s)

This rumored deal will not go away, so we'll have at it - keep in mind there are a ton of permutations of this deal, so you may have read it differently at some point:

Phillies deal: SP Jon Lieber, SP Justin Germano, CF Aaron Rowand
Phillies receive: OF Kevin Mench, OF Geoff Jenkins, RP Derrick Turnbow/RP Jose Capellan

This deal would be contingent on the Phillies getting another starter to fill the void a Lieber trade would create. Dealing for one of the White Sox starters (namely Javy Vazquez or Freddy Garcia) makes the most logical sense, but any deal involving the Sox would almost certainly have to involve Rowand (and, according to most sources, another pitcher - perhaps either Ryan Madson, Gavin Floyd, or Germano). The other deal that could be a part of this crazy scenario could involve the long rumored Gavin Floyd-Rodrigo Lopez deal. So, in theory, the Phillies could realistically wind up with something like this:

GET: Lopez as the fourth starter, Mench/Jenkins platoon in right field, Turnbow/Capellan in the back of the bullpen
GIVE: Lieber, Germano, Rowand - three impressive trade chips (you could argue the Phillies could get more than they would in these proposed deals for such quality), but three guys that are either expendable at the moment or would be if these other deals were to happen.

I'd have to give it more thought, but there could be something worthwhile here.

Some versions of the deal with Milwaukee are a bit simpler: both the possibility of a Lieber for Mench and a reliever or Rowand for Mench and a reliever swap have been floated out there. Mench is not an everyday outfielder, but he could make a fine lefty hitting half of a platoon (969 OPS against lefties over the past 3 seasons). If the Phillies acquired Mench and Capellan for either Lieber or Rowand (ideally Rowand), I'd be happy...assuming the Phillies were smart enough to view Mench for what he is (a platoon guy) and not something crazy (a potential Pat Burrell replacement).

It's a wild time of year, no?

The Perfect Phillie

2006-11-30T16:18:00.000-05:00

I've followed the Phillies closely enough in my lifetime to realize that a move like this just makes too much sense to the Phillies braintrust not to actually happen. I'm sure Benito is a little young for Pat Gillick's tastes, but he fits the mold in every other aspect of his game.

I'd be shocked if this doesn't happen.

Borowski Not A Phillie

2006-11-29T18:11:00.000-05:00

Maybe I'm crazy, but I think this offseason has gone just about as well as anybody could have expected to this point - no trade of Pat Burrell (yet), solid signings of mid-level players that plugged holes like Adam Eaton in the rotation and Wes Helms at third, and major long-term financial problems averted every time the Phils get rejected (i.e. Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee both heading elsewhere for big bucks). The trend continues today...Joe Borowski flunked his physical with the Phillies this afternoon, thus negating a potential multi-year with the club:

According to the sources, the Phillies were prepared to sign Borowski when a team doctor examined the results of the physical and advised against giving the pitcher a multiyear contract.

You just gotta love how the Phillies were bailed out from making a bad decision by a wonky shoulder. Now my position on paying for bullpen arms in today's market is probably pretty clear by now (just in case you are new, I'm against it), so I'm obviously more than okay upon hearing this news. Giving Borowski a multi-year contract would have been a mistake. That said, this news isn't so bad:

Borowski's agents, Ron Shapiro and Michael Maas, continue to field one-year offers from several clubs. It's believed they haven't ruled out resuming negotiations with Philadelphia.

It's not so much that I like the idea of Borowski being on the Phillies under any circumstance at all (though a one-year deal is a heck of a lot more appealing than a "multiyear" deal), it's more that I think bringing Borowski in would satisfy the Phillies seemingly insatiable appetite for veteran bullpen arms - I'd hope that a Borowski signing would be enough relief insurance for the Phils to instead begin to turn their attention to, I don't know, figuring out who is going to be their rightfielder next year.

Piazza

2006-11-29T01:13:00.000-05:00

So Ken Rosenthal says the Mike Piazza sweepstakes have come down to the Phillies and the Oakland A's. Is anybody out there really buying this? Every single quote coming out of the Phillies front office seems to indicate that they have no interest in bringing Piazza aboard. Oakland is the heavy favorite to land Piazza, but the fact that Rosenthal believes the Phillies are still in contention to land his services is a significant departure from literally everything else written about the idea. Puzzling.

Old/New Phillie: Adam Eaton

2006-11-28T17:28:00.000-05:00

Adam Eaton

On the whole, I like the signing. After the Jamie Moyer re-signing, I made a mental list of second tier free agent starter pitchers (i.e. no Matsuzaka, Mussina, Maddux, Schmidt) that I was hoping the Phillies would target if they could get them at the right price; the list, in order, included Adam Eaton, Randy Wolf, Tomo Ohka, and Gil Meche. Getting the guy at the top of a list of second tier guys may not be the most exciting news in the world, but it's another step in the right direction for an organization desperately trying to find it's way. The free agent market has been so screwy this offseason that I think it would have been best for the Phils to distance themselves from signing any starting pitcher and instead look to fill the remaining hole in their rotation via the trade route. That said, I realize that this is a bit of an unrealistic approach to expect the local ballclub to take when they've got the combination of pressure from the fans eager for a signing, a handful of solid options available on the market, and money burning a hole in their collective pocket. Given the available, realistic options out there, Adam Eaton was a fine choice.

Eaton is at worst an injury plagued, league average when healthy back of the rotation starting pitcher (slightly overpaid at $8 million/season). At best, he is a player with vast untapped potential who has only been held back by nagging injuries and who, if healthy, could ultimately provide the Phillies with impressive bang for their buck in this exploding free agent market (a steal in today's game). Needless to say, the fan in me hopes that Eaton will be at his best for the three (maybe four) years he is in Philly.

I think that it is very fair and almost always correct to argue that a 29-year old baseball player is what he is at that point in his career...and even though I believe this very strongly, I can't help but waver in the case of Eaton. I liken this signing to the recent drafting of Cole Hamels and Kyle Drabek - the Phillies wouldn't have been able to get guys with such upside so late in the first round if each didn't have major injury/character concerns associated with them. Now this is a point that can be argued back and forth all day long, but if Adam Eaton had not got hurt at (pick any random point along his development path), then there is no way the Phillies could have signed him for the deal they got him at in the first place. IF Adam Eaton can stay healthy in 2007, I do not think it is unreasonable to expect a career year out of him - I realize that doesn't mean all that much after looking at his career numbers, but his peripherals have always been solid and he appeared to be on the verge of a breakout season in 2005 before a midseason injury took him down, so he must have been doing something right at some point.

I think it's interesting that the Adam Eaton signing and the David Dellucci signing were both finalized on the same day. It boggles the mind to compare what Eaton, a pretty sizable risk based on his checkered injury history, got on the open market compared to what Dellucci, way more of a sure thing when used properly (the man just flat kills righties), wound up getting paid. Eaton signed a contract paying him an average of $8 million annually. Dellucci signed a contract paying him less than half of that per season (just under $4 million per). Signing a pitcher is almost always a bigger risk than signing a position player due to the unpredictable nature of pitching...and yet teams willingly throw more money at pitching than they do comparable hitting. I understand why (need, mostly) and I see the logic in that to an extent, but it's still wacky.

Ryan Howard

2006-11-23T02:47:00.000-05:00

I've spent too much time reading about and thinking about these wild Carlos Lee rumors flying around that I'm just getting around to mentioning Ryan Howard's MVP award. Now I know nobody out there is hearing this for the first time and I really don't have anything special to say about Howard's awesome 2006 season, but it would be a real shame to completely ignore the occasion for such silly reasons. Anyway, kudos to Ryan Howard...your 2006 National League Most Valuable Player.

Out of the Frying Pan...

2006-11-20T23:55:00.000-05:00

Losing out on the Alfonso Soriano sweepstakes is unquestionably a blessing in disguise for the Phillies to any close follower of the baseball team; eight years and $136 million is far, far too high a price to pay for even one of the top hitters on this year's market. This is why the new stories circulating that link Carlos Lee to the Phillies make me a little bit queasy - the unconfirmed rumor making the rounds tonight is that the Phillies are prepared to offer Lee a five-year contract worth roughly $62 million. The Phillies wanted Soriano, missed out on getting their man (in a very public manner), and are now desperate to use some of the money fans expected to see spent on a big name free agent...it's a recipe for disaster.

Alfonso Soriano is a good player, but his addition to the Phillies lineup would not have made sense - subtracting Pat Burrell and adding Soriano would have cost the Phillies a fortune, and the upgrade from Burrell to Soriano wouldn't have been worth the cash.

Carlos Lee is a good player, but his addition to the Phillies lineup would not have made sense...well, you get the idea - just read the previous paragraph and sub in "Lee" for "Soriano."

In a completely unrelated tangent, it was a little tough to see the New York baseball empire getting the players they wanted. Money absolutely wasn't everything in the contract decisions made by Moises Alou (Mets) and Mike Mussina (Yankees), but it still stings to see the two New York teams make sound, fiscal decisions in the face of this offseason's exploding market. Two of the Phillies biggest holes could have been filled if only they could have somehow lured Alou and Mussina away (I don't blame the Phillies for not being able to do so as both players seemed set on playing in New York) and all for just a few million dollars more combined (I'd say $9 million for Alou and $12 million for Mussina might have gotten it done) than one Soriano ($17 million per).

On the plus side, at least Pat Gillick is a better GM than Ned Colletti.

Phillies Dodge a Bullet

2006-11-20T16:43:00.000-05:00

Alfonso Soriano signed an eight-year, $136 million contract with the Chicago Cubs yesterday. More on this to come, but...phew.

Baseless Rumors

2006-11-17T01:41:00.000-05:00

Between getting my computer back up to speed, writing 2o page papers, and making Thanksgiving travel plans it's been a bit touch and go around this site as of late. I do have two unsubstantiated rumors to pass along:

The Phillies and Rockies continue to talk about a possible Aaron Rowand deal. Some of the names being thrown out by the Rockies include SP Aaron Cook and C Yorbit Torrealba. This seems very plausible to me.
It's being reported here and there that the Phillies much talked about offer to free agent Alfonso Soriano (did they make an offer? didn't they? how much?) has now been upped to a six year, $98 million deal. I have no way of confirming whether or not this is true, but it seems less likely to be true than the Rowand rumor...though when it comes down to it, I think Soriano will either be a Phillie (35% shot) or an Angel (65%). We shall see...

Big News Day

2006-11-15T20:30:00.000-05:00

Wes Helms in, Scott Graham out.

Phillies Targets

2006-11-14T17:02:00.000-05:00

I've been out of the loop for the past couple of days or so, but I think this is a fairly complete list of players that the Phillies have been connected to through the media this offseason. If I'm wrong on anybody or I'm missing someone, yell at me in the comments.

The list:

C Johnny Estrada
3B Wes Helms
3B Mark DeRosa (forget that)
3B Rich Aurilia
3B Akinori Iwamura (forget this too)
RP Joe Borowski
RP David Weathers
SP Miguel Batista
SP Jeff Suppan
SP Randy Wolf

Latest additions to the list:

RP Chad Bradford
RP Octavio Dotel
RP LaTroy Hawkins
SP Gil Meche
SP Tomo Ohka

Even later addition to the list:

SP Adam Eaton

Adding players like Helms, Dotel, and Ohka may not be all that exciting, but it would go a long way towards shoring up some areas of need...while also saving enough cash to go out and add an impact bat for the outfield - whether it be via free agency (Moises Alou?) or trade (the possibilities are endless). More rumors from the dailies...

Situation to keep an eye on:

"Sensing that the market - both international and free agent - is going to be prohibitive for many clubs to enter, the Rockies have let teams know Jason Jennings is available and the White Sox have told clubs they are not adverse to dealing any of their five veteran starters." [NY Post]

Now combine that rumor, with this one:

"Cash is the operative word at this event, where agents are smiling and mini-crabcakes are going for 12 bucks a pop. That explains why the Rockies will make a run at the cost-efficient Burke and inquire about Philadelphia's Aaron Rowand. Executives said Monday that Coco Crisp, on the Rockies' radar the past 11 months, is not available even as Boston pursues Gary Matthews Jr. and J.D. Drew." [Denver Post]

Top Competition for Alfonso Soriano?:

"The Angels won't spend the rest of the general managers' meetings in Naples, Fla., sulking, though. GM Bill Stoneman said Monday that he's "thrown some offers out there already," and one is believed to be to slugger Alfonso Soriano, possibly for six years and about $80 million." [LA Times]

Closing Arguments:

I love the idea of Rowand winding up in Colorado...he'd be a perfect fit there and the needs of the Phillies really match up with some of the strengths of the Colorado organization. I'll need to think on this possibility a bit more and come up with some viable trade ideas. I love Jason Jennings, but Rowand is not enough to get him...something could be worked out, I'm sure.

The Angels and Soriano seem like a match made in heaven (horrible pun intended). I hope Fonzie comes to his senses and realizes that there is nothing better than playing in Los Angeles...Anaheim...Southern California...whatever. Anyway, I like Soriano but not for the money being discussed - he just isn't a significant upgrade over Pat Burrell, I don't care how you slice it. So, Alfonso, you have my blessing - go west, young man.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

2006-11-13T13:35:00.000-05:00

The rumor isn't Phillies related, but it is big all the same - it has been widely speculated that the Boston Red Sox have won the bidding for Japanese righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka with a posting fee ranging anywhere from $30-$40 million. The latest rumor claims that it is indeed the Sox with the winning bid, but the dollar figure is actually in excess of $50 million.

Whoa, that's a lot of money.

EDIT: Peter Gammons is reporting that the winning Red Sox bid is $42 million. That's still a heck of a lot of money. I may be in the minority here, but I think Matsuzaka will be worth every penny - both from a financial perspective (i.e. the cost of the posting fee vs. the increased marketability of the Sox in Japan) and from a baseball perspective (i.e. his yearly salary vs. his potentially dominating performance on the field).

Site Update 2.0

2006-11-12T15:13:00.000-05:00

So my computer is back in my possession and finally running smoothly again, but there is still the not so small matter of converting, recovering, and rediscovering lost files and documents. So posting here will still be fairly irregular, but (hopefully) not non-existent - we are about to embark on what all signs point to being the busiest part of the offseason after all. All of my "big" plans for this site have kind of gone to hell, but I'm nothing if not adaptable...a full free agency preview and the continuation of a lot of the things I started and never finished don't seem like they'll be possible this year, but there figures to be plenty of other interesting (and more relevant) topics to discuss in the coming days. Such as...

Aramis Ramirez staying in Chicago after agreeing to a 5-year, $70 million contract

I count this as the third big move of the offseason so far...the first being the Kevin Kouzmanoff/Andrew Brown for Josh Barfield trade (an extremely even deal as I see it, both teams filled big holes), the second being the Gary Sheffield to the Tigers trade (another fairly even deal in my eyes, but for different reasons - the Tigers got their man by dealing from one of their organizational strengths, but the Yankees got a phenomenal haul for a player that everybody knew wouldn't be on their roster in 2007...a trade like this just makes the Bobby Abreu trade look that much worse, right?). I am shocked by the Ramirez re-signing...everybody has talked about how the market was going to blow up this offseason, and then the premier hitter goes and signs what appears to be a below-market deal to kick things off. Wacky. Looks like a crazy offseason continues to just get crazier...

EDIT: The total value of the Ramirez contract is now being reported at $73 million. Minor difference, but $3 million is $3 million, right?

Site Update

2006-11-03T11:21:00.000-05:00

My computer is pretty busted right now (damn those Blue Screens of Death), so updates will be sporadic for the next few days while I go off and tried to get it repaired. Just a heads up to the 3-4 regular readers out there.

Minor League Free Agency

2006-11-01T00:45:00.000-05:00

It's that time of year again - minor league free agency! Clearly this is the most important period of the offseason...the Phillies contingent of minor league free agent position players includes:

C John Castellano
C Dusty Wathan
C Jeff Winchester
1B Gary Burnham
1B Brandon Gemoll
1B Randall Simon
2B Carlos Leon
3B Brennan King
SS Avelino Asprilla
SS Jonathan Johnson
SS Jesus Merchan
SS Juan Sosa
OF Peter Bergeron
OF Ryan Fleming
OF Gary Harris
OF Josh Kroeger
OF Matt Padgett
OF Brian Sellier
OF Pedro Swann

They all can go find new jobs except for King and Kroeger – sadly, both of the K & K boys count as decent hitting prospects in a Phillies farm system lacking in talented position players. To rectify that, the Phillies can always go scrounging around the minor league free agent heap - that is how they landed Kroeger and King last year, after all. Names that could interest the Phils include:

C Guillermo Quiroz (Age 25: .267/.321/.411 for AA San Antonio and AAA Tacoma) – After being deemed Toronto’s catcher of the future following his breakthrough 2003 season at AA, Quiroz’ performance has steadily declined. The dearth of good catching in baseball make this young backstop worth a look, especially if you can slip him through waivers and keep him as your third catcher on the depth chart/starter at AAA.
1B Jeff Bailey (Age 28: .275/.383/.489 for AAA Pawtucket) – Bailey is as good a candidate in all the minor leagues to emerge as the next Chris Coste. He fits the profile as a well traveled minor league veteran capable of playing multiple positions (first base, corner outfield, and emergency catcher). On top of that, Bailey kills lefty pitching – 1.035 OPS against them in 2006. Fun fact: Bailey is exactly one year older than Phils first baseman Ryan Howard.
1B Brandon Sing (Age 26: .196/.330/.341 for AA West Tennessee and AAA Iowa) – Believe it or not, I’ve already written about Sing on this website about ten months ago. Since that time, Sing’s game has completely fallen apart – his two great years in 2004 and 2005 are a distant memory in the minds of many after his disaster of a 2006 although we probably should have seen the potential of a freefall coming as he was old relative to the leagues in both ’04 and ’05. Sing obviously can not be expected to help a big league club in ’07, but he still has enough youth on his side that he would be an excellent option as the Ottawa AAA next year.
3B Terry Tiffee (Age 28: .273/.314/.377 in AAA Rochester) – Tiffee is a decent hitter with major league experience and has proven himself capable at playing third base at the big league level.
OF Mike Restovich (Age 28: .293/.374/.560 in AAA Iowa) – Restovich has long been a personal favorite of mine and is a player who clearly deserves a spot in the majors. I’d be willing to give him a shot as part of a platoon in an outfield corner on the Phillies in 2007 – that’s how confident I am that Restovich can hit lefty pitching at the big league level.
OF Luis Montanez (Age 25: .277/.340/.415 at AA West Tennessee and AAA Iowa) – Montanez spent the second half of this past season working in the AAA Iowa outfield with fellow current minor league free agent Mike Restovich. He was originally drafted by the Cubs with the third overall pick in the 2000 draft out of Coral Park HS in Miami. He began his pro career as a shortstop with big-time offensive potential…hmm, a high school shortstop with a high offensive ceiling from Miami…the Alex Rodriguez comparisons were everywhere – especially after Montanez garnered the short season MVP award in 2000. Unfortunately for Montanez, he was never able to get close to his 2000 numbers and his career stalled until a move out of the middle infield in 2005. His improvement from year to year since being converted to the outfield is for real – Montanez may never live up to his draft billing, but he will be a useful major leaguer before long.

Other minor league free agent hitters of note: OF Abraham Nunez (the other one), former Philies 3B prospect Travis Chapman, and recent former Phils INFs Bobby Scales and SS Angel Chavez

A look at interesting minor league free agent pitchers to come…

Elias Player Rankings

2006-10-31T22:24:00.000-05:00

Good news for the Phillies today: both David Dellucci and Aaron Fultz have been classified as a Type A free agents. The complete Phillies free agent list is below:

Type A's: Dellucci, Fultz, Mike Lieberthal
Type B's: Arthur Rhodes
Type C's: Rick White, Randy Wolf

I'd definitely offer arbitration to Dellucci, I'd almost certainly offer to Fultz, and I'd think long and hard about offering it to White. Ideally, you want to put yourself in a win-win position with each player - if the player accepts arbitration, you get a useful player back for a (typically) reasonable price; if the player declines, then you get the subsequent compensatory draft picks owed to you based on the level of free agent you lose (assuming another team signs the player). Either getting picks for Dellucci or having him back would be great; I wonder if any team out there would be willing to give up a first rounder to sign Dellucci. Getting picks for Fultz or White would be super and even if either player accepted the arbitration contract, it wouldn't kill the team to pay for either to come back.

Soriano and Estrada for Burrell?

2006-10-31T19:52:00.000-05:00

Randy Miller:

Soriano, 30, is expected to get a first offer this week from the Phillies, who have decided to go all-out for the right-handed slugger the same way they did four years ago when signing free agent first baseman Jim Thome to a six-year, $85 million contract.

A team source says the Phils are prepared to dish out at least $75 million over five seasons for Soriano, who hit .277 with a career-high 46 homers, 95 RBIs and 41 steals last season for the Washington Nationals, most out of the leadoff position.

If the Phils land Soriano, their next move would be dealing left fielder Pat Burrell, who has two seasons and $27 million remaining on a $50 million contract that includes a no-trade provision.

In a meeting late this summer with general manager Pat Gillick and assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr., Burrell was forewarned that the team wants to move him and asked to provide a list of places he'd go, the team source said.

Dealing Burrell to Arizona for catcher Johnny Estrada is a possibility.

I'm taking the easy way out here and pulling a recent discussion out of the comment section because it is so damn relevant to this rumored report:

malphie said...

I just noticed this.

OBP / SLG / EqA
A: .388 / .502 / .301
B: .389 / .504 / .302

A is Pat Burrell this year. B was him last year. He literally had the same exact year at the plate in '06 as he did in '05. So why is everyone calling for his head now? Because of the emergence of Howard, right? They say he needs "protection" in the lineup. Only...he hit 58 homeruns last year! I mean, didn't Howard have an awesome, MVPish year with Burrell protecting him? If the Phils spend ridiculous money to bring in Soriano, I guess he would provide marginally more protection than Burrell, but at his cost? No way Soriano is worth it.

1:06 PM

I said...

Damn good points, couldn't have said it better myself. People can hate on Burrell all they want, but the simple fact remains that he is a good hitter. Replacing a good hitter with a "great" hitter like Soriano (I use the term very loosely) would provide a net gain, small as it may be. Making a move like this would likely cost about $5 million or so of Burrell's salary on top of the $13 million plus that Soriano figures to make.

Replacing a garbage hitter like Abe Nunez with even a league average hitter represents a greater net gain (yes, Nunez really was that bad in 2006 - as good as Chase Utley was this past season, Nunez was literally as bad) all at a much, much cheaper cost.

The Phils are not in a position where they can afford making big money changes to get better around the margins; they need to target their biggest weaknesses and seek out solutions that can, at the very minimum, provide a one year or two band-aid over their problems.

OPS+ is not even close to being any kind of definitive statistic, but it is interesting to compare Burrell's career OPS+ (117) with Soriano's (115). If we were to forget finances, I would rather have Alfonso Soriano on my baseball team in 2007 than Pat Burrell (by a slim margin). But after factoring in the cost it would take to dump Burrell and then sign the dollar bills it would take to sign Soriano, there is no way in heck that it could even be argued Soriano is the better choice.

As for the pesky Burrell for Estrada rumor...let's just hope that's all it is - a rumor.

Russell Branyan Off the Market

2006-10-31T12:29:00.000-05:00

From The San Diego Union-Tribune:

In other player developments, the Padres picked up the $1 million option on corner infielder/outfielder Russell Branyan..."Right now, Branyan's our third baseman,” Towers said. “He gives us protection at third. For a million bucks, a guy that versatile with that type of power – it's pretty much a no-brainer.”

Russell Branyan is now officially off the market. Even though he is utterly useless against lefties, he is still a very valuable player because he has shown himself to be capable of destroying righties while also being able to play a "competent" third base. Branyan would have been a good fit for the Phillies in 2007, and, in all honesty, a great fit for the Phils in 2006 as the platoon partner with David Bell; it is no exaggeration to say that with Russell Branyan on the roster in '06, the Philadelphia Phillies would have made the playoffs (again, not because Branyan is a world beater but because Abe Nunez was so historically bad). No point in wondering what if, I suppose...all we can do now is cross Branyan off the list of potential third base solutions and set our sights elsewhere.

Quick Glance at the Papers

2006-10-30T18:04:00.000-05:00

If this report is to be believed, then we've got some big news on our hands. I can't seem to shake the feeling that Pat Gillick really wants to go out and make a huge splash this offseason. Now that the Alfonso Soriano and Gary Sheffield rumors are hot once again, it only makes sense that the Akinori Iwamura and Aramis Ramirez rumblings get louder as well - it still may be a long shot, but it would be far from surprising to see one of those four names (Soriano, Sheffield, Iwamura, Ramirez) playing in South Philly in 2007.

I don't even want to comment on the latest article by Marcus Hayes - all I can say is that an article like that can very quickly undo all of the optimism that this fan felt after dreaming about adding a bat like Sheffield's, Iwamura's, or Ramirez' to the everyday eight (I'm not a big Soriano fan - he is a heck of a hitter, but he'll be grossly overpaid the second he signs his new contract). Just say no to spending big bucks on relief help (though Guillermo Mota isn't a terrible idea if the price is right), to mindlessly picking up Rowand's $5 million option, and to dumping the still productive Pat Burrell only to spend even more money on a replacement that won't be worth the upgrade in cash (Soriano). Making lateral moves for large quantities of dollar bills will get this team nowhere fast - upgrades are needed at the positions of need such as third base, right field, and the entire pitching staff. If the Phils focus their time, money, and resources on the actual positions of need instead of inventing or creating new positions of need, they'll be alright. If not, it'll be a long offseason.

What I Would Do If I Was Running the Phillies (My Ideal Yet Somewhat Realistic Offseason Plan)

2006-10-27T19:04:00.000-04:00

Since it's always fun to play pretend, here is my "If I was GM of the Phillies" scenario where I get to pretend that a multi-million dollar business entity like the Phillies organization would be willing to hand the reins to some punk kid running a sporadically updated Phillies website. But since we are all fans and we all are free to dream, here is exactly what I would try to do if I was named general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies tomorrow:

Catchers:

I am more than happy going into 2007 with the catching tandem of Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste handling duties behind the plate. I have plenty of confidence in Ruiz’s last three minor league seasons (his OPS in each of the last three minor league seasons: .822, .812, and .894) to hand him the bulk of the at bats at the catching spot early on in the season; a 2-1 ratio of games started compared with Coste would be ideal. I should point out that I have an illogical love for Carlos Ruiz and have followed his last four minor league seasons with much care; I haven’t had a true favorite Phillie since Bobby Abreu was dealt and it is a possibility that Ruiz could seize that highly sought after honor heading into 2007.

From April 21, 2006:

Quick note about Carlos Ruiz (who continues to hit the heck out of the ball down in AAA)...my new, best possible scenario prognostication for him is...Paul LoDuca...I think it's a pretty solid comparison...both players were late bloomers as pros, both with unconventional hitting styles for catchers, somewhat similar minor league stats, and, last but not least, extremely similar (in my mind anyway) batting stances and physiques...watching Ruiz at the plate reminds me so much of LoDuca, it's scary...just a thought.

LoDuca hit .320/.374/.543 in his first full big league season, by the way. It was obviously a heck of a season for LoDuca, but it wasn’t a great predictor for his future big league numbers – I mean, where did all that rookie season power come from anyway? That said, I don’t think any objective follower would object if Ruiz had a rookie season like LoDuca’s…or, for that matter, a career like his. Ruiz will be 28 years old on opening day, Chris Coste will be 34; both players are expected to earn the league minimum ($380,000).

I said earlier that I would be more than happy with Ruiz and Coste sharing the catching duties, but if an intriguing catching option pops up, I would not be adverse to adding a third backstop. Fortunately for the Phillies, an intriguing catching option has popped up. J.R. House was recently dropped by the Houston Astros off the 40-man roster and is now a free agent. House broke out big time as a prospect way back in 2000 when he hit a robust .348/.414/.586 in Low A ball as a catcher in the Pirates organization. Injuries (abdominal hernia, torn muscle, Tommy John surgery, rotator cuff surgery, mono) and the pressures of being a two-sport star (he holds the national high school record with 10 touchdown passes in a championship game and actually threw 4 passes for West Virginia in 2005 – almost ten years after deciding to play pro baseball rather than sign with the Mountaineers out of high school) have held him back as a ballplayer, but his 2006 numbers are very, very encouraging: his combined line of .345/.392/.521 in 493 at bats split between AA and AAA is nothing to sneeze at.

House will be 27 in a few weeks and should be willing to sign with a team willing to give him a guaranteed big league contract ($380,000). I’m not typically a fan of having a third catcher on the roster, but the flexibility that both Coste (capable of playing first and third) and House (capable of playing first) provide make the idea possible. Having three catchers on the roster also frees up one of the three as a pinch hitter on any given night – the Phillies bench was so underwhelming last year that it would be a welcome sight to see Coste, House, or Ruiz come up to the plate in a tight late inning spot. Adding House to the roster could also pay off in the long-term – he is still relatively young and the hidden benefit of his many minor league injuries is the lack of wear and tear on his body from catching a ton of innings. A move like this would take some big time guts on the part of the Phillies, but the potential payoff is huge.

Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste, J.R. House

Total Cost: $1.140 million

Infielders

Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins are part of the Phillies core and should all be in Philadelphia for a good, long time. Patching up the black hole that is known as third base will take a whole lot of creativity and open-mindedness by the Phillies organization – luckily, they are free to use any of my ideas at no charge. I see about a half dozen possible solutions on the free agent/trade market, but there are very few players that will realistically be available that can man the position all by themselves. My solution to this: a good, old-fashioned platoon.

The Phillies, as of this second, have two spots to fill in their everyday lineup going into ‘07: third base and an outfield position. They have also stated that one of their offseason goals is finding another righty bat to protect Ryan Howard in the lineup. We can then put two and two together, and see that a power hitting, righty third baseman or outfielder is what the team wants. Finding a power hitting, righthanded third baseman would be ideal, but rather difficult to accomplish – Aramis Ramirez would be perfect, but there are so many hurdles that need to be jumped for that to happen that it isn’t worth mentioning at the moment. There are a few other options at third available, but none that jump out as rock solid additions that will contribute consistently going forward. Again, my solution to this problem can be found in a platoon.

Mark DeRosa put up an OPS of .983 in 146 at bats against lefthanders last season. He posted an OPS of .876 against lefties in the three year stretch from 2003-2005 (291 at bats). DeRosa would be a perfect fit as a lefty masher in the Phillies lineup and the UPenn grad could be very receptive to returning home to play for the Phils. He also gives you incredible flexibility on days he is not in the starting lineup as he has played every position on the diamond in his career with the exception of centerfield. I have no real idea what kind of market there will be for DeRosa’s services, but I think a two-year deal that pays about $7 million total would be a competitive offer. DeRosa at $3 million in 2007 would be a great fit for the Phillies. If the Phillies strike out on DeRosa, I would be more than happy to move on to former Marlins infielder Wes Helms. He probably deserves offers in the same range I expect DeRosa to get, but I bet he winds up being the cheaper option of the two. Helms really took to his role as a reserve last season and had a career year (.965 OPS in 240 at bats), but has previously shown himself to be stronger against lefties than righties (.886 OPS against lefties in 262 at bats from 2003-2005). Either Helms or DeRosa works for me, but I think DeRosa is a tad more desirable because of his versatility.

Now that we have a third baseman who can hit lefties, we of course need the more important half of any platoon – it’s time to find someone that can handle righties.

The best option as I see it on the free agent market is Russell Branyan (.894 OPS against righties in 510 at bats from ’03-’05, pretty even split in OPS in ’06). Unfortunately, it appears that the Padres have a $1 million option on him and they’d be fools to decline it. Assuming he isn’t available, I’d turn my sights to the trade market and try to snag a player that has actually been compared to Branyan at times – 26-year old Angels third baseman Dallas McPherson. A Michael Bourn for Dallas McPherson would give both players a fresh start in an organization that could provide regular playing time as early as opening day ’07. McPherson’s job with the Phillies would be to play a solid third (although both Nunez and DeRosa could sub for defense in the late innings), keep his back healthy (I consider his aching back the number one reason for his struggles in recent years and it is apparently now as healthy as it has been in years), and hit the heck out of righthanded pitchers.

Corey Koskie could also be an option here if the Phillies decide to explore the trade route. It has been rumored that not only will the Brewers look to move Koskie this offseason, but they will also be very open to picking up a good chunk of the $5.75 million he is owed in 2007. If the Brewers pick up at least $2 million in salary, then the Phillies could get themselves an undervalued commodity that could be used as the righty hitting half of their third base platoon. Koskie had an OPS of .857 against righthanded pitching in the three year stretch preceding his injury plagued 2006. The more I think about Koskie, the more I like the idea…but if my deal of Bourn for McPherson is feasible (I’d be willing to add a low level arm to make it work if need be), I think that is the move to make.

Abraham Nunez will be back as a late inning defensive replacement, pinch-bunter, and backup middle infielder. There is no way that he is bad in 2007 as he was in 2006…right?

Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Dallas McPherson/Mark DeRosa, Abraham Nunez

Total Cost: ($500,000 + $4.5 million + $8 million + $380,000 + $3 million + $2.1 million) = $18.480 million

Outfielders

The Gary Sheffield situation as gotten too complicated for me to rationally expect the Phillies to get involved, so I made the sacrifice and scratched him off of my personal offseason wishlist. With Shef out of the picture, please allow me to introduce the newest member of my version of the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies – free agent OF Moises Alou. Alou decides to join the a Phillies team very close to breaking through to the postseason after accepting a two year contract worth $17 million. Alou is similar to Sheffield in a lot of ways – both guys are older, righthanded hitting corner outfielders coming off of somewhat injury plagued seasons – but different enough in a lot of key areas that ought to appeal to the Phils – Alou will be cheaper and is far less of a sourpuss in the clubhouse. Alou would join an outfield already occupied by returning starters Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino. Jeff Conine is a bat off the bench/fourth outfielder already under contract, and Chris Roberson makes a fine fifth outfielder/pinch runner/defensive sub for Burrell.

If you really want to go platoon crazy and Moises Alou isn’t your cup of tea, feel free to check out the splits of Frank Catalanotto and Jose Cruz Jr. (you don’t really have to check on your own, I have them here: Cat regularly posts .800+ OPS figures against righties and Cruz destroys lefties to the tune of a .885 OPS in the three year stretch from ’03-’05). Another option would be Jose Guillen – a useful player coming off a year completely wrecked by injuries. I have no idea what kind of contract he’ll get (I’d hope for a one year, make-good deal worth $3-$5 million) and he has something of a negative reputation in the clubhouse, so his coming to Philly is a stretch.

The best outfielder that is likely to be made available this offseason will be Tampa Bay’s Carl Crawford. It would probably take a package featuring both Carlos Carrasco and Gio Gonzalez to land him, a package that is almost definitely worth it but still very, very difficult to pull the trigger on. My initial offer to Tampa would be Gonzalez, Jason Jaramillo, Welinson Baez, and Clay Harris (Gonzalez and Jaramillo being the headliners of this deal). In the end I don’t think Crawford coming to Philly is all that realistic a possibility, but it is something to keep in mind as the offseason events unfold.

Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Moises Alou, Jeff Conine, Chris Roberson

Total Cost: ($13 million + $380,000 + $8.5 million + $1.45 million + $380,000) = $23.710 million

Running Total Cost for All Position Players (14 total) = $43.330 million

Vs. Righties

SS Jimmy Rollins
2B Chase Utley
RF Pat Burrell
1B Ryan Howard
LF Moises Alou
3B Dallas McPherson
CF Shane Victorino
C Carlos Ruiz

Vs. Lefties

SS Jimmy Rollins
C Carlos Ruiz
RF Pat Burrell
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
LF Moises Alou
3B Mark DeRosa
CF Shane Victorino

Bench

C/1B/3B Chris Coste
1/1B J.R. House
IF Abe Nunez
(UTIL DeRosa or 3B/1B McPherson)
OF/1B Jeff Conine
OF Chris Roberson

Pitching staff ideas come Monday…

Meet the Phillies: 2007 Roster Forecast

2006-10-26T01:59:00.000-04:00

Why wait until April to know who will be on the Phillies active roster to open the 2007 season? Here is a sneak peek at what to expect out of the Phils in the coming months of offseason activity. I have no inside information (clearly) about whom the Phillies are going to pursue, so this is purely speculation on my end...in other words, don't go bet the farm on the Phillies signing Jay Payton. Without further ado, meet your 2007 Philadelphia Phillies:

Catchers:

Chris Coste and Carlos Ruiz will both be back and will both be paid the big league minimum ($380,000) in 2007. The Coste/Ruiz combo is a promising one, but the Phillies will find a way to screw it up somehow – there is just way too much Johnny Estrada smoke out there right now for there not to be a fire. Arizona will be more than happy to move Estrada now that they are ready to commit to Miguel Montero behind the dish full time. Expect to hear rumors of Pat Burrell (plus cash) for Johnny Estrada, but expect something more along the lines of youngish, bullpen arm for Estrada.

Chris Coste, Carlos Ruiz, Johnny Estrada ($4.5 million, arbitration estimate)

Starting Infield:

1B: Ryan Howard ($500,000), 2B Chase Utley ($4.5 million, arbitration estimate), SS Jimmy Rollins ($8.0 million). I know I’m not exactly going out on a limb here, but there is no chance at all that any of the three players listed above will not be Phillies in 2007; they are all stone cold, mortal locks (as I channel Howard Eskin…) to remain in Philadelphia. Third base is a wee bit trickier position to predict…all I am willing to say with any conviction is that Abraham Nunez will not go into the season as the starter at third. Yeah, yeah…I know that isn’t all that daring a prediction either. There are three players out there that I can close my eyes and picture manning the hot corner in red pinstripes next year – Joe Randa, Shea Hillenbrand, and the wild card, Akinori Iwamura.

Randa feels like a fit because he’ll be relatively cheap (with good reason…it’s Joe Randa after all), he hits righthanded, and, quite possibly the most important reason to the Phillies braintrust, he is a gritty veteran (in other words…he’s old). Hillenbrand fits because he hits righthanded and is kind of a “name” player. An Iwamura signing would make the biggest splash of the three potential moves, but it remains the least realistic option of the three at this point; he’ll cost the most by far ($10+ million just for the posting fee, probably at least $7 million annually), he’ll be a free agent in high demand, and he bats lefthanded. Call it a hunch, but I think the Phillies make a play for Shea Hillenbrand and sign him to a two year deal worth roughly $4 million per season.

Howard, Utley, Rollins, Hillenbrand

Starting Outfield:

Here is where things get tricky…and where this news really, really screws up all of my offseason plans (I knew I shouldn’t have originally written these plans so far in advance…oh well, maybe I still have time to come up with revised ones before the offseason officially begins). I had originally thought that the Phillies would make a big splash in the free agent market with either one of two big signings – in my head, either Mike Mussina or Gary Sheffield was coming to Philly. In this, my now outdated offseason prediction of what I think the Phillies will do this offseason, I had the Phillies signing Gary Sheffield to a two year deal worth roughly $12 million per season. Now that this possibility seems to be gone (the Yankees now plan on picking up his $13 million option in order to trade him and Sheffield is not happy about it), I suppose we can adjust on the fly and I’ll just go ahead and predict that Mike Mussina will be a Phillie and be done with it.

So…back to the outfield. Shane Victorino ($380,000+) and Jeff Conine ($1.45 million) will both be back and it is a widely assumed that the Phils will pick up Aaron Rowand’s $5 million team option. Ladies and gentleman, those three could very well make up your 2007 Philadelphia Phillies starting outfield – Rowand, Victorino, and Conine…for a team that expects to contend for a pennant. Pencil in Chris Roberson ($380,000) as the cheap, speedy, plus defender kind of fifth outfielder that teams like to have on the roster and the Phillies are still short one outfielder.

I find it hard to believe that this outfielder is already on the roster – in other words, so long Pat Burrell (boy, that was an awkward sentence). I don’t like it, you don’t like it, but the writing is on the wall. Burrell will be shopped to any team with a need for a power hitting outfielder, of which there are plenty. Ultimately, I envision a Pat Burrell/Gavin Floyd package going to Minnesota for former Phil Carlos Silva ($4.3 million) with the Phillies picking up about $5.5 million (a number I totally made up) of Burrell’s salary per year over the next two years.

I have no idea what kind of outfielder the Phillies have in mind if this is the route they take. They clearly need to add somebody decent if they deal Burrell and are left with Victorino, Rowand, Conine, and Roberson as their outfield options. Moises Alou would be a great idea, but for some reason I keep coming back to Jay Payton. I say the Phils snatch him up for three seasons at roughly $5 million per.

Rowand, Victorino, Payton

The Bench:

If you’ve been paying close attention, you’d know that the 2007 Phillies bench will consist of IF Abraham Nunez ($2.1 million), OF Jeff Conine, OF Chris Roberson, and the third catcher (most days this would be either Coste or Ruiz).

Total Cost of Position Players: $36.170 million

Starting Pitching

Mussina is brought in to be the “ace” of the staff and he’ll be paid like it – we’ll estimate $12 million/season for two years. The three Phillies starters currently under contract (Brett Myers, Jon Lieber, and Cole Hamels) are all expected back. They are set to earn $5 million (arbitration estimate), $7.5 million, and $380,000 respectively. I honestly did not expect the Phillies to reach an agreement with Jamie Moyer (I had him pegged for either Seattle or Chicago), but we now know that he’ll be back with the Phils in ’07 and beyond. I originally had the Phillies bringing back Randy Wolf on an incentive-laden, one year contract ($6 million base salary), but I have no problem swapping Wolf out for Moyer ($7 million) to make this a little more relevant. I know it’s cheating, but it’s cheating for the greater good. So the rotation sets up as follows: Mussina, Myers, Hamels, Lieber, Moyer. Not bad, Phillies, not bad.

Bullpen

Tom Gordon ($7 million) will be back, Ryan Madson will be back ($1.4 million, arbitration estimate), and Geoff Geary will be back ($1.2 million, arbitration estimate). I don’t think it is outside the realm of possibility that Madson could be dealt, but I’d say the odds are strongly in his favor for a return to the Phils. We’ve already added Carlos Silva and his hefty salary to the back of the bullpen and it seems as though the Phillies were impressed enough by both Matt Smith and Clay Condrey ($380,000 each) to give them the inside track at jobs come spring training. This leaves only one more job in the pen to hand out. Shoring up the back end of the bullpen is a big part of Pat Gillick’s plan for the offseason, so expect more money than necessary to be sunk into finding relievers for ’07. Righties Joe Borowski, Chad Bradford, David Riske, and lefties Ray King, Steve Kline, and J.C. Romero all will be on the Phillies radar. In the end, I say they’ll make Borowski an offer he can’t refuse: two years, $7+ million to set up for Gordon. If Borowski is signed, then it is possible the team will want a second lefty in the pen to go with Smith; if this is the case, Eude Brito can easily be substituted for Clay Condrey.

Total Cost of Pitching Staff: $50.480 million

2007 Opening Day Lineup:

SS Rollins
CF Victorino
2B Utley
1B Howard
RF Payton
LF Rowand
3B Hillenbrand
C Estrada
SP Mussina

Bench:

C Coste
C Ruiz
IF Nunez
OF Conine
OF Roberson

Starting Rotation:

RHP Mussina
RHP Myers
LHP Hamels
RHP Lieber
LHP Moyer

Bullpen:

RHP Gordon
RHP Silva
RHP Borowski
RHP Geary
RHP Madson
LHP Smith
LHP Brito

Total Cost: $86.65 million

For the record, I’d like the Mussina move, but I'd dislike almost every other move to varying degrees of...dislike (again with the awkward sentences). This isn’t the worst 2007 Philadelphia Phillies roster that could be assembled (the pitching is solid, but the lineup isn’t as strong as it should be) and I actually think the majority of the fanbase would be more than happy with these 25 guys wearing the red stripes. I still see this offseason as one great, big, giant opportunity for this team to add the pieces it needs to get over the hump and into the postseason – anything less than an offseason that gets us closer to the playoffs will be a bit of disappointment in my eyes. I don’t know why I wrote that last sentence…it just seemed like a nifty way to end this gracefully…though I suppose I just ruined that by writing what I just wrote.

The End

New Labor Deal Details

2006-10-25T00:23:00.000-04:00

Relatively good news from MLB.com:

• As far as the June First-Year Draft is concerned, teams will now get same-slot compensation if they don't sign their draft picks, meaning if a team fails to sign it’s No. 3 pick in one draft, it will get the 3(a) pick in the next year's draft. More important, teams will no longer have until the next draft to sign their picks, but must do so by the following Aug. 15 or the player goes back into the pool. Minor League players that fall under the Rule 5 Draft can now be protected from an extra year. Currently players with four to five years of experience can be selected. It will increase to five to six years.

• Type C Major League free agents will no longer carry draft pick compensation for the club that loses the player, beginning this year, while Type A and Type B free agents will continue to carry compensation. Next year the Type A and Type B pools shrink. Right now, Pool A is the top 30 percent at their position, but in succeeding with decrease to 20 percent. Pool B is the top 50 percent, but it will decrease from 21 percent to 40 percent.

• The MLB minimum salary increases from $327,000, plus cost of living this year, to $380,000 next year. After that it goes to $390,000 for 2008, $400,000 for 2009 and 2010, and $400,000 plus cost of living adjustments for 2011.

The rules really have not changed as far as draft pick compensation goes for losing free agents – Type C free agents were pretty much irrelevant anyway from a compensation standpoint and the important compensation that most fans are familiar with will still exist for Type A and Type B free agents. The changes in the June First-Year Draft are welcomed, but still underwhelming – I suppose my hopes were a bit too high after I read that salary slotting was talked about. Major League Baseball had a chance to make some positive changes to the game, but failed to do so; I won’t complain so much because it’s always a good thing when the threat of a work stoppage is eliminated.

One thing that came out of the new agreement that really surprised me was the raise in minimum salary. The hike to $380,000 from $327,000 is totally unexpected and will force me to recalculate my ’07 payroll figures.

News From All Over

2006-10-24T21:32:00.000-04:00

Lots of news out there with plenty of details on the Jamie Moyer contract…among other things. Let’s break down the Moyer contract first:

From Randy Miller:

Besides getting two years, Moyer obtained a limited no-trade clause and the freedom to leave Phillies road trips early so that he can fly home to Seattle and spend time with his wife and six children.

From Phillies.com

The club signed the veteran to a two-year contract extension worth $10.5 million plus incentives that could bring the deal to $14 million, keeping him in red pinstripes through the 2008 season.

According to a baseball source, the specifics of Moyer's deal are as follows: He'll earn $7 million in 2007, $1 million of which is a signing bonus. He's guaranteed $3.5 million in 2008, but would balloon to $7 million if he pitches at least 185 innings. He's reached that number in nine of the previous 10 seasons.

From Daily News:

After making $5.5 million this season, in which he went 11-14 with a 4.30 ERA, he will take home $7 million next season: $6 million in salary and a $1 million signing bonus. Moyer is guaranteed $3.5 million in 2008, but could make twice that.

If he pitches 170 innings in 2007, he gets $4.5 million in 2008, and if he hits 180 innings he gets $5.5 million in 2008. He also gets $500,000 if he hits the 165-inning plateau in 2008, another $500,000 for 175 innings and another $500,000 for 185 innings in 2008.

If Moyer completely falls apart this season, then the contract essentially boils down to a one-year deal worth $10.5 million (this year’s salary plus next year’s guaranteed cash). If Moyer pitches 180 innings in ’07 and 185 innings in ’08, he will have collected $14 million from the Phillies for two years of work. $14 million…I am now more convinced than ever that this was a bad deal.

The following is a bit of a jumbled mess with some good news and also some bad news. It's all rumor and hearsay at this point, so take it for what it's worth...not much:

From Randy Miller:

Once the free agent signing period begins next month, Gillick will focus on adding a fifth starter (unless Wolf returns), signing or trading for a third baseman with “a little more pop” — free agent Aramis Ramirez won't be pursued — and strengthening the bullpen. He'll also try to deal disappointing left fielder Pat Burrell.

So Randy Miller says Aramis Ramirez will not be a Phillie. I’m not a huge fan of Miller, but he has gotten some pretty good Phillies information lately…we’ll see about this one.

Daily News:

And the Adrian Beltre experiment, begun under Gillick's extended watch in Seattle, isn't working out all that well for the Mariners in cavernous Safeco Field. Perhaps Beltre could regain that 48-homer righthanded stroke he showed in 2004 with the Dodgers if he hit behind Howard, perhaps coming East (with $35.5 million in salary due through 2009) in a deal that could send embattled leftfielder Pat Burrell (and his remaining $27 million) to the Mariners if he would waive his no-trade clause.

But that doesn't sound likely, to hear Gillick talk.

"There's a very strong possibility that Pat's in leftfield," said Gillick, who noted that despite Burrell's .258 average and his .222 mark with runners in scoring position, "You don't find 29 home runs and 95 RBI in the street."

The Phillies probably won't find it in David Dellucci, either.

The Phillies certainly will be buying in the solid bullpen portion of the free-agency market.

"We're going to be looking to fortify the back end of our bullpen," Gillick said, hoping to improve with a replacement for the setup shortcomings of Arthur Rhodes and Ryan Franklin.

The prospect of a Beltre for Burrell swap intrigues me, but I honestly don’t see it making a whole lot of sense for either side in the long run. Let me just run this quote by one more time: "You don't find 29 home runs and 95 RBI in the street." That is music to my ears…I just hope that Mr. Gillick really believes what he is saying. Dellucci is a goner, no surprise there. Finally, the Phillies are looking to shore up the bullpen through free agency. I can not fully express how bad an idea I think this is. For anybody out there keeping track of the relief pitching market, Mike Timlin re-signed with the Red Sox today and Guillermo Mota is widely believed to be very interested in re-upping with the Mets. So now you know.

Philadelphia Inquirer:

Gillick said the team's next priority is more pitching.

He wants to fortify the back end of the bullpen, and the Phillies will continue to look for more offense. That most likely means a righthanded bat to protect Howard.

Gillick said there's a "strong possibility" that leftfielder Pat Burrell could be back next season, but there's a 100 percent certainty he will try to trade Burrell first.

The Phillies are prepared to eat some of Burrell's guaranteed $27 million over the next two seasons to make that happen. Burrell has a no-trade clause and must approve any trade.

This last link is pretty much unnecessary, but I added it anyway…and there is nothing you can do about it. I just want to reiterate how bad an idea it is to go out and spend real money on bullpen help. The odds of Joe Borowski getting big bucks to come and set up for Tom Gordon just went way, way up. This isn’t a good thing. All this talk of fortifying the back of the bullpen also leads me to believe that the inevitable Pat Burrell and Gavin Floyd fire sale where the Phils pick up a washed up, overpaid reliever is getting closer.

Jamie Moyer

2006-10-23T19:11:00.000-04:00

The Philadelphia Phillies and LHSP Jamie Moyer reached an agreement earlier today that will pay Moyer $10.5 million (plus incentives) over the next two seasons. Read all about it at Phillies.com. Rarely has there been such an important decision made by the Phillies that has educed such a nonpartisan response out of me; it's just that it is extremely hard to evaluate this one move without knowing the context of it. We can evaluate this one move and one move only in a vacuum, but that just isn't the way baseball teams are built – there are so many other factors have not yet been decided on that will impact the relative success or failure of this move. For example:

What are Randy Wolf’s contract demands anyway? What kind of contract will a comparable pitcher (say…Tomo Ohka, a pitcher that I believe can put up similar or better numbers to Moyer in ’07) get on the open market in a few weeks? How much of an impact did cost certainty make on this signing – did the Phillies jump at the chance to have one of their two open rotation spots filled so that they have one less need to address when pursuing other players of interest (Aramis Ramirez, perhaps?)? The free agent crop of starting pitching is weak this year – this seems like a key reason behind getting a preemptive deal with Moyer finalized and out of the way, no? I don’t like the Moyer signing in a vacuum (I realize that he couldn’t have been signed without a two-year deal, but yikes – two years of guaranteed money to a guy in his mid-40s just does not seem like a good idea), but I can live with it because I am hopeful that the Phillies have a plan this offseason and this is merely the first step, however uninspiring, in their effort to carry it out.

Now if we find out that Randy Wolf would be willing to take a one year, make-good contract with the Phils for less than $7 million or so, or if Tomo Ohka (or any other of the marginal back of the rotation starters floating out there) winds up having to settle for a one year deal worth less than $3 million or so, or if the Phillies wind up going the whole offseason without adding an impact player, then this deal quickly becomes a whole heck of a lot harder to take.

I know I tried to take a positive (or at the very least neutral) position on the signing, but I must admit that this move, for lots of reasons, does not give me a good feeling heading into the offseason.

Which Columnist Do We Believe?

2006-10-23T01:07:00.000-04:00

The details about the new Major League Baseball labor deal slowly trickled in over the weekend, but there seems to be some confusion about one of the most immediate ramifications of the talks - the matter of what will become of draft pick compensation for free agents lost.

Peter Gammons says:

The new agreement will likely end draft choice compensation for losing free agents.

Ken Rosenthal says:

The deal will not eliminate draft-pick compensation for departed free agents, but the current plan will be modified, the source told FOXSports.com.

Tracy Ringolsby says:

The new deal won’t have any major changes from the past, but there were be several subtle alterations that will have a long-term benefit. The two sides have agreed to eliminate draft choice compensation for teams losing free agents, and they will have a slotting system for bonus money paid to June draft choices.

So, which big time baseball columnist do we believe? Personally, I hope that Ken Rosenthal is correct as I believe free agent compensation for lost free agents to be a good idea in theory, but one that has been incorrectly executed in recent years. It is in the best long-term interest of baseball to tweak the current system so that it actually benefits small market clubs. I love the idea of a slotting system for bonus money in the June amateur draft - a move like that would go a surprisingly long way in creating competitive balance in baseball.

Ah, a discussion of the upcoming labor agreement...what could be more fun than that?

Random Musings on Ryan Madson's '07 Salary

2006-10-20T15:57:00.000-04:00

Predicting Ryan Madson's 2007 strategy was the toughest thing about creating this post from earlier this week. I've given the whole matter a lot of thought (probably way, way, way too much thought) over the past few days and I figured I'd might as well get my thoughts typed out and get an easy post out of it. So here goes...rambling thoughts about Ryan Madson's 2007 salary...

There is something I always forget when thinking about arbitration - just because a player is eligible for arbitration, does not mean that he'll actually go to arbitration. In fact, the vast majority of players and teams settle before meeting before the arbitration panel. From the MLBPA website:

Q: What is the record between players and owners in salary arbitration cases? A: Since 1974, and including 2006, arbitrators have ruled on behalf of the players 199 times and clubs 269 times. Although the number of players filing for salary arbitration varies per year, the majority of cases are settled before the arbitration hearing date. For example, since 1990, 1,658 cases were filed and 191 were heard, which means approximately 88 percent of the players filing for arbitration reach new agreements before a hearing.

88 percent is a whopping number; I don't know why I so easily forget how rare it is for a player to actually go through the arbitration process. This applies to the discussion from yesterday about the projected salary figures of certain 2007 Phillies (Chase Utley, Brett Myers, Ryan Madson, and Geoff Geary). I'm reasonably happy with all of my estimates with the exception of Madson's; $1.4 million is a good chunk of change to hand out to a guy coming off such an iffy 2006 season. Now how did I come up with that $1.4 million figure in the first place? There was a method to my madness:

The Scott Boras Factor: Madson's agent is none other than Mr. Boras himself, so it can be assumed that negotiations will be eventful, to say the least. The relationship between Boras and the Phillies has never been as bad as the general public likes to think, but that doesn't make it any easier for the Phils when dealing with the notoriously stubborn negotiator. Boras is as prepared as any agent in the game and he has plenty of ammunition to bring to the bargaining table...see point 2.
Madson Can Play Ball a Little: 2006 was a fairly awful year for Madson, but his down season only constitutes one third of his big league career thus far. I think his very two impressive years out of the bullpen will carry more weight than his up and down third year spent both starting and relieving.
Julian Tavarez Got Paid: This is where things get a bit tricky. It made sense to me to track down players with similar first three year stats to Madson and then compare their salaries in their first year of arbitration. Madson's first three seasons are extremely similar to Tavarez'; Tavarez made just a little over $1.1 million in his first year of arbitration back in 1998. Keeping in mind the way salaries have gone up since then, I'd say Madson's $1.4 million projection might not be that far off.

All that said, I have no idea if Madson will get $800,000, $1.4 million, or $2.0 million - all I've done is try to think it out logically and make a reasonable guess. If you've read this far, congratulations - I'm not sure how interesting any of this was, but the whole arbitration process and MLB salary structure (especially for years 4-6 of a player's career) really fascinate me. So much like the majority of what I post here, this was as much for me as it was for anybody out there reading. Is $1.4 million right? Well, I hope so just for the sake of establishing an accurate framework of the Phils budget in advance of knowing the real number. But it isn't all that important if I'm right or wrong - the process of coming up with the number is what it was all about...for me anyway.

Good Rumor, Bad Rumor

2006-10-17T12:57:00.000-04:00

The original title for this post was "Good News, Bad News," but it felt funny to even call any of the offseason speculation at this point "news." The rumors today come courtesy of Randy Miller at phillyBurbs.com and Marcus Hayes at the Daily News.

Before I go on, let me first address the hottest bit of gossip going around Philly - numerous sources have indicated that Pat Gillick is head over heels in lust after Nationals free agent OF Alfonso Soriano. Randy Miller confirms this yet again in his article linked above. Since I believe that there is a smaller than small chance that Alfonso Soriano is a Phillie in 2007 (anybody else hear that his potential asking price is 5 years/$80 million?), I'm choosing to completely ignore that part of the rumor for the time being. Sorry to anybody dreaming about Soriano in red pinstripes, but it ain't going to happen. On to the "Good," the "Bad," and the "Completely Unrelated but Interesting All the Same."

Good Rumor

The Phillies have identified Gary Sheffield as a free agent of interest. Sheffield is exactly what the Phillies need - righthanded bat, relatively short-term contract (max 2 years guaranteed, maybe an 3rd year option), and more than enough power to "protect" Ryan Howard in the lineup. I wrote up an offseason wishlist when putting together my own plan for the Phils and Sheffield's name was at the very top; Dwight Gooden's nephew is an ideal fit on the Phillies roster. Imagine an outfield of Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, and Gary Sheffield...that's a scary group.

Bad Rumor

Imagine an outfield of Gary Sheffield, Shane Victorino, and...Aaron Rowand? Jeff Conine? Some other replacement level outfielder? Well, that could very well be the case if the Phillies decide to "Abreu" (yeah, it's a verb now) Pat Burrell.

General manager Pat Gillick indicated that the Phillies would look to move Burrell, perhaps eating some of his remaining $27 million over the next 2 years, as long as he would waive his no-trade clause.

"We're going to have to continue to look for a little more offense. We know we're probably... Pat has had a really difficult time protecting Howard," Gillick said.

A straight salary dump of Pat Burrell would be an unnecessary and downright stupid move for the Phillies to make - signing Sheffield is a marvelous idea, but if you are just going to give away Burrell at the same time, then it's a classic case of one step forward, one step back. Probably not a good way to get those extra five wins, eh Mr. GM?

Two Items of Note Worth Mentioning But Unrelated to Anything Else Previously Mentioned

Marc Bombard, a name mentioned a bunch of times in yesterday's post on the Phils coaching staff, is a top candidate for one of the most controversial jobs in the minor leagues - manager of the Durham Bulls. The situation in Durham is a mess - the Bulls are the AAA affiliate of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, a team loaded with talent on the farm. Unfortunately for everybody involved in Durham, that talent comes with a price - mainly having to deal with the immaturity of Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes, two of the top prospects in all of baseball. Young will probably never see Durham again now that he has gotten a taste of the big leagues, so there should be no more concerns about bat throwing for the Bulls. Elijah Dukes is a whole other story - it has been rumored that the staff in Durham (not just the on-field baseball staff, but the entire staff) will refuse to report to work if Elijah Dukes is on the roster. It's just a rumor at this point, but it's a biggie. So, good luck Marc Bombard...although I'm not sure if "good luck" means getting the job or not getting it.

From the Daily Herald in Chicago:

Lou Piniella spent the day at Wrigley Field on Monday, probably talking about the many holes the Cubs need to fill, especially in the rotation.

And one guy who’s available is left-handed starter Jamie Moyer, who began his career with the Cubs and had many of his best years under Piniella in Seattle (1996-02).

Moyer has a mutual option with the Phillies worth $4.75 million, but you have to think he’d rather be with an old friend in Chicago, which also is much closer to his Seattle home and his family.

The 43-year-old Moyer still is good for 210 innings and 33 starts, and with a decent team he’d still be a 15-game winner, not to mention a good influence on the young pitchers.

If that sounds like a left-handed Greg Maddux, it’s exactly what the Cubs need to fill one of the empty spots on their 2007 staff.

Bringing back Moyer at $4.75 million I could somewhat justify, although I think there are better ways to spend that money and better options as fifth starters. If Moyer winds up getting any more than $4.75 (the Phils and Moyer share a mutual option), I think it would be a mistake for whatever team signs him. In a perfect world, Moyer gets to pitch somewhere he pleases that isn't Philadelphia (Seattle or Chicago) and gets paid as much as possible.

New Phillies Coaching Staff

2006-10-16T18:45:00.000-04:00

I've been purposely holding out on bringing up the subject of who will fill the three available jobs on the Phillies coaching staff because, in all honesty, I hadn't the faintest idea. The news today that Jimy Williams, Davey Lopes, and Art Howe would join pitching coach Rich Dubee, hitting coach Milt Thompson, bullpen coach Ramon Henderson and catching instructor Mick Billmeyer on the Phils staff certainly qualifies as a shocker. Williams is the new bench coach, Lopes is the new first base coach and outfield/baserunning instructor, and Howe is the new third base coach/infield instructor [Pick your favorite: Phillies.com, Inquirer, Comcast Sportsnet]

I hate to make it appear like I'm copping out here, but I can't help but to take a centrist, fairly balanced approach on these hirings. There are things I liked and things I didn't like about the hirings:

I do like having Art Howe as the new third base coach/infield instructor. Howe as a third base coach can not possibly any worse than Bill Dancy, the man he replaces. Plus, Howe has a fairly strong reputation as an infield instructor - he also has an eye for infield teaching talent as he was the manager in Oakland who hired Ron Washington, the best third base coach/infield instructor in the league by far, to his staff.
I don't like Jimy Williams being on the coaching staff. I don't like the way his managerial tenures have ended throughout his careers (his firings in Boston and Houston being the most damning as I see them), I don't like the fact that he is the man keeping tabs on things in the dugout for Charlie Manuel, and I especially don't like the fact that there is only one M in his first name.
I do like having Davey Lopes aboard as the first base coach/outfield instructor/baserunning instructor despite his disastrous managerial record (144-195 in 2+ years with Milwaukee...though to be fair, those Brewers squads weren't the most talented). Lopes was a prolific base stealer in his day and, while I'll readily admit that being good at something doesn't necessarily make you a good teacher of it, I do tend to give the guy the benefit of the doubt because of it...rightly or wrongly.
I don't like the fact that Lopes replaces Marc Bombard on the staff...I know Bombard was fired weeks ago, but I still think losing a good baseball man like him will hurt the Phillies. There's something to be said for having a coach on staff who has experience dealing with players on the roster stemming from time in the minor leagues together. The young players really seemed to respect Bombard and now he's gone. I don't like it.
I do like the fact that the Davey Lopes hiring made me check out his Baseball Reference player page. I've read all about his abilities as a base stealer, but I had no idea he popped 28 homers in 1979. That spectacular '79 season is a pretty crazy outlier in his otherwise above average career. Guess you really do learn something new everyday, right?
I don't like that the Phillies couldn't find a spot for John Russell on the staff. Hopefully no other team can lure him away from the organization (I've read Texas is planning on interviewing him for their top job shortly) so that he can return to a managerial job in the Phillies minor league system.

So as a whole, I think it is fair to say that these three hires are fine in the short-term. I think that the trio of Williams, Howe, and Lopes is at least slightly superior the departed Gary Varsho, Dancy, and Bombard group. Howe is absolutely an upgrade over Dancy, Williams and Varsho is probably a push, and Lopes and Bombard seem pretty evenly matched (I'm a big Bombard fan, so I give him the slight edge...but it is very close).

Now here is what I really think - I think the names won't really all that matter much to the majority of Phillies fans out there; I think both the age of the guys hired (they are all old - average age of the three is 61) and the previous managerial experience of each (as noted, all three have been managers before) are the two things Phillies fans will ponder the most. Why would the Phils go out and bring in three veteran coaches with plenty of big league managerial experience to surround their lameduck manager? Hmm...I think there could be some long-term implications to these hires, no?

What Does the New Coaching Staff Mean in the Long-Term?

I didn't want to get too far ahead of myself in my evaluation of the new coaching staff to get into this, but I'll bring it up here as the last thing I do not like about the hirings. I don't like the idea that Charlie Manuel should be feeling pressured into getting off to a hot start because of the presence of three former big league managers on his staff; more to the point, I don't like the idea that any one of Jimy Williams, Art Howe, or Davey Lopes is in position to take over for Manuel should the Phillies start off cold in 2007. If you aren't a fan of Charlie Manuel, that's fine - it's a legitimate position to hold after the disappointment of his first two years in Philly. However I warn any fan that is anti-Manuel to take a long look at the three new hires - if it is your wish that Manuel get fired in-season only to be replaced by one of the members of his new staff, then I hope you know what kind of mess you are getting yourself into. Charlie Manuel may be the frying pan, but the trio of Williams, Howe, and Lopes collectively make up one roaring fire.

First Real Post of the Offseason

2006-10-16T02:13:00.000-04:00

It's hard to get into the offseason mindset when there is still baseball being played, but today we'll do our best to ignore the pesky distraction that is postseason baseball and instead focus on what in the heck the 2007 Phillies are going to look like. I sketched out a rough idea of 2007 payroll figures and here's what I've come up with thus far:

Catchers:

Chris Coste (C): .350*
Carlos Ruiz (C): .350

Infielders:
Ryan Howard (1B): .500
Chase Utley (2B): 4.500**
Jimmy Rollins (SS): 8.000***
Abraham Nunez (IF): 2.100

Outfielders:
Pat Burrell (LF): 13.000
Shane Victorino (CF): .350
Jeff Conine (OF): 1.450****

Starting Pitchers:
Jon Lieber (SP): 7.500
Brett Myers (SP): 5.000
Cole Hamels (SP): .350

Relief Pitchers:
Tom Gordon (CL): 7.000
Ryan Madson (SU): 1.400
Geoff Geary (SU): 1.200
Matt Smith (MR): .350

Miscellaneous:
Jim Thome: 5.500

16 players
58.900 million dollars committed

*I listed all of the players still on their original contracts at $350,000, my projected major league minimum. I’m not sure yet what the minimum will be in 2007, but I’m fairly certain it’ll be less than $350,000. So why did I set it there? Well, I’d rather be safe than sorry.

** I did my best to come up with accurate figures for the 4 arbitration eligible players on the above list (Utley, Myers, Madson, and Geary). Again, I tried to be conservative and give the players the benefit of the doubt salary-wise. I personally can not see any of the four arbitration eligible players making more than the salary figure I’ve estimated…but you never know. Howard’s salary is unofficial as well…he’ll get more than the minimum, but not by much. I settled on $500,000 because that’s the amount Chase Utley played for this past season.

*** Rollins is owed $7,000,000 in base salary in 2007, but the Phillies are also obligated to pay him $1,000,000 of his signing bonus as well.

**** Conine is owed $2,000,000 in 2007, but the Orioles are on the hook for $550,000.

I would imagine the opening day roster is composed of the following:

C, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, IF, IF, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF = 13
SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, CL, SU, SU, MR, MR, X, X = 12

I’m not sure what the “X” stands for exactly…just a quick and easy notation for the bottom of the barrel bullpen guys. I suppose that it could either signify a long-man or a mop-up man or even just another “middle reliever” – all of this definition in the bullpen doesn’t really mean anything (they are all relief pitchers after all), but it’s somewhat useful (for me, anyway) within the confines of this exercise. I suppose labeling any of the relievers (with the exception of the closer, Tom Gordon) as “MR” would have worked just as well…I mean how do we really determine whether Ryan Madson is a “SU” or a “MR” if we are just making up the terms on the fly? Anyway, I’m sticking with the current system unless anybody out there has any objections. Hopefully a tiny bit of that made sense and didn’t just confuse anybody even more. Moving on…

The 16 players listed above are very likely to find spots on the 2007 roster of the Philadelphia Phillies. This means that the following spots are up for grabs:

3B, IF, RF, OF
SP, SP, MR, X, X

If we believe that the Phillies will have a $90 million payroll yet again (give or take a million here or there), then that means that the Phillies have roughly $31 million to spend on 9 remaining players.

As you may have noticed, I’ve omitted the players that have options for next year - Aaron Rowand and Jamie Moyer. I think there is a very good chance that both players could be back in ’07, but until the news is made official, they shouldn’t count against the payroll, right?

So here is the contract info. Now what? Well, I’ve been working on putting together an offseason plan for the Phillies and I hope to unveil it shortly. Expect multiple versions of the plan because I’m having a tough time trying to figure out my ideal Phillies offseason. I’m also hopeful that I’ll finish up my predictions for what I think the Phillies will do this offseason as well – I think it’s a pretty safe bet that my ideal offseason and what I think the Phillies will do will be quite different, but that’s what makes the whole thing fun. Until these big plans are ready to see the light of day, the goal here is to update this here site with any bits of news/rumors/juicy gossip concerning potential roster moves as frequently as I can. At the very least I like to think I’ve provided a pretty decent framework for any other enterprising Phillies fan out there who wants to formulate their own offseason plan…so what are you waiting for? Get to it.

Johnny Callison

2006-10-13T17:51:00.000-04:00

1958-2006

I never saw Johnny Callison play, but I've heard countless Phillies fans call him their favorite player of their generation. Not a bad legacy to leave behind for a ballplayer, if you ask me.

2006-10-11T21:37:00.000-04:00

1972-2006

AFL

2006-10-10T18:49:00.000-04:00

Proving once again that there is really is no off-season, the Arizona Fall League kicks off their 2006 schedule tonight (there's also some game being played in Oakland tonight...A's in 6 is the prediction, by the way). The team Phillies fans should keep an eye on in the AFL is the Peoria Saguaros - the Saguaros have seven Phillies minor leaguers on their roster. Tonight's starting pitcher is none other than Gavin Floyd. Here's hoping Floyd can get his winter off on the right foot and, maybe just maybe, make a good enough impression on the Phillies to work his way back into their 2007 plans.

Sunday Reading

2006-10-08T14:26:00.000-04:00

I pulled this out of the comment section from a few days ago because I think it's fairly topical today (original comments in bold, expanded comments found afterwards):

Matsuzaka: Odds of the Phillies getting involved...very low. Then again, you never know with Pat Gillick now in charge - Seattle had a strong presence in the Pacific Rim (though I'm not so sure he had all that much to do with it...). I'd personally take him over any starting pitcher on the market...by a large margin.

Two reasons why I think Daisuke Matsuzaka is the best free agent starter on the market this offseason: 1) I think he is the best pitcher out of the group...better than Zito, better than Schmidt, yes, even better than Vicente Padilla, and 2) I think Matsuzaka will wind up being a relative bargain...in a baseball payroll sense. To the best of my understanding, the posting fee that teams must pay is rarely credited to . It is more of a lump sum payment made by ownership that is considered a business expense outside of the baseball team. I'll be honest, I'm not sure if my understanding of this procedure is correct or not (I'm awaiting more information on this from people in baseball much more in the know than I), but it's all I have to go on for now. Details on his latest outing (a 9 inning, complete game shutout with 137 pitches thrown, 6 hits allowed, no walks, 4 hit batsmen, and 13 strikeouts) can be found at the very detailed Matsuzaka Watch.

Continuing on the the topic of Japanese ballplayers: [The Japan Times]

Iwamura had a so-so first half this season following recovery from a hamstring injury sustained in the World Baseball Classic in March, but he's the guy who tied a team record with 44 home runs in 2004. He's also been as hot as the weather lately, with 11 homers in his first 15 games during August, and his season batting stats through games of Aug. 18 include 26 home runs, 58 RBIs and a .305 average.

Closer Ishii, said to be coveted by several MLB clubs, missed three months of this season with a shoulder injury but, over a full schedule in 2005, Ishii was 4-3 with 37 saves and a 1.95 ERA in 61 appearances.

Scouts from at least three National League teams were at Tokyo Dome Aug. 15-17 to check out the Yomiuri Giants vs. Swallows games. While they got to see Iwamura in fine form, there was no chance to watch Ishii because there was no save situation for Yakult and, inexplicably, Ishii was deactivated again following the first game of the series on Tuesday.

I know for a fact that one of the three National League teams that had scouts watching Iwamura was Phillies. It's a long offseason, but I don't think it would hurt Phillies fans to store away the name Akinori Iwamura in their memory somewhere. He is a 28-year old, lefthanded hitting third baseman who, if he could be had relatively cheaply, would make a fascinating lefty half of a third base platoon.

Estrada: I hope the Phillies don't even consider him...it would be a disaster.

I'd be willing to bet just about anything that a Chris Coste/Carlos Ruiz catching tandem will greatly outproduce any kind of season Johnny Estrada hopes to put together in 2007. Even if you believe Estrada is on the same level of the Coste/Ruiz duo, it is damn near impossible to justify the salary that Estrada figures to receive as an arbitration eligible player this offseason. The only way I would be okay with Estrada's return to Philly is if A) the Phillies give up little to nothing to obtain him, B) Estrada's salary remains reasonable, and C) the Phillies bring him in and use him correctly - Estrada and Ruiz at catcher (Estrada vs. righties, Ruiz vs. lefties), with Coste getting plenty of spring training time at third base - not as a potential regular, but as a player capable of catching, playing the infield corners, and serving as the top bat off the bench. [East Valley Tribune]

Top Priority: 3B, figuring out the OF situation, and pitching, pitching, pitching.

Dellucci: He'll be moving on.

I should point out that these priorities are in no real set order and can be solved in any number of ways. Today, just for fun, let's take a look at some of the recent news concerning the OF situation. As you can read, I already made my opinion known that David Dellucci won't be back with the Phils in '07. More news on that:

"I want to be with a team that allows me to do what I can do," he said. "I feel that I'm more of a contributor than just a utility-type player... . I wasn't satisfied, especially coming off the amount of playing time I had last year... . Gosh-darn it, I know I can hit lefthanded pitching. I haven't been given the opportunity.” [Philadelphia Inquirer]

I don't think he'll be back.

Rumors about Aaron Rowand’s future have also been hot as of late. The latest on Rowand beginning with the persistent noise that the Rockies are very interested in adding a centerfielder this offseason:

The club is expected to pursue Coco Crisp or Aaron Rowand through trade, with Dave Roberts among several potential free-agent possibilities. [Denver Post]

Centerfielder Aaron Rowand has a $3.75 million player option for next season, with a $5 million club option. "The only way I won't be back is if they trade me," Rowand said. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

Rowand will be back unless the Phillies trade him. I don't think the organization has it in them to deal the guy...we'll see. I wouldn't mind bringing back Rowand for $3.75 million as a platoon player (as you can see, I'm big on the idea of platoons), but, again, I don't think the Phillies are bright enough to do something like this.

Phillies manager in 2008: My personal list of favorites includes Davey Johnson, Larry Dierker, Orel Hershieser, Terry Pendleton, and, the guy who I think will be the next manager of the Phillies, John Russell.

Charlie Manuel will be back in 2007, but because his hold on the job is so shaky, the list of candidates for the job come 2008 is worth discussing. I'd be more than happy with any of the above candidates. I'd be ecstatic if John Russell was promoted to the role of Phillies bench coach.

Pat the Bat

2006-10-05T21:27:00.000-04:00

Why do Phillies fans dislike Pat Burrell so much? The answer to that question has been discussed over and over again, but it remains a mystery to me. Forget what you know about Pat Burrell and pretend the following Burrell quotes are actually from Philly fan favorite Aaron Rowand [Philadelphia Inquirer]:

"I want to be back, and I plan on being back."

"It's difficult," he said of sitting out games. "But the team is bigger than just me. Sometimes you have to accept the fact that maybe the manager feels the team is better off with someone else out there. You don't like it, but it's part of the game."

He added again that he'd like to return next season and talked about his loyalty to the Phillies.

So, Pat Burrell wants to be in Philadelphia, feels loyalty to the Phillies organization, and realizes that he is not bigger than the team. I can really see how the public perception of this player matches up with reality…More Burrell:

"I didn't understand a lot of it, to be honest. I've been around town long enough to know that [the fans] have their guys. Maybe I'm one of the guys that doesn't fit into the mold or whatever, but that's something I can't control.”

"I had a major-league contract the day I signed," Burrell said. "Not a lot of guys can say that. I feel fortunate. I'm grateful. You feel loyalty to the people who take care of you."

Pat Burrell is right; the fans do have their guys and he doesn’t fit the mold. Pat Burrell isn’t the problem for not fitting the mold; it’s the Philadelphia fan designed mold that is at fault.

Playoff Time

2006-10-04T22:19:00.000-04:00

Is it too late to make public my '06 playoff predictions? I say no. It may seem like cheating since the playoffs began on Tuesday, but you just gotta trust me that I'm telling the truth here. It's not like these picks are rocket science anyway...plus you can refer to my pre-season picks to see where I stand on the A's.

NLDS: Mets over Dodgers, Cardinals over Padres

Why? I know the Mets starting pitching is a concern, but they can still hit the hell out of the ball. The Cardinals aren't world beaters, but they are just good enough to get by the Pads.

ALDS: A's over Twins, Yankees over Tigers

Why? The A's were my preseason pick to win it all and I'm sticking with 'em. The Yankees have the best 1-9 batting lineup of any team in my lifetime.

I realize it is highly suspicious that all of the teams I picked already have the lead in their respective series, but it is what it is.

If the playoffs aren't interesting enough for you without the Phillies being involved, fear not - the Inquirer has the complete list of ex-Phillies in the playoffs [Philly.com]:

Oakland A's: None

Minnesota Twins: Nick Punto and Carlos Silva

Detroit Tigers: Todd Jones and Placido Polanco; coach Andy Van Slyke

New York Yankees: Bobby Abreu, Sal Fasano and Cory Lidle; coaches Larry Bowa and Joe Kerrigan

San Diego Padres: Coach Darrel Akerfelds

St. Louis Cardinals: Gary Bennett and Scott Rolen

Los Angeles Dodgers: Marlon Anderson, Kenny Lofton and Ramon Martinez; coaches Mariano Duncan and Dan Warthen

New York Mets: Endy Chavez, Julio Franco, Roberto Hernandez, Michael Tucker and Billy Wagner

So out of these groups of players, can we determine what team ought to be the favorite of Phillies fans? The Mets are clearly out for many reasons: 1. Billy Wagner, 2. Roberto Horrendous, 3. Endy Chavez (I hate that he is doing well this year), 4. They are the Mets. The Cardinals are out...that goes without saying (and yet I said it anyway...go figure). The Tigers have Todd Jones on their team - he may actually be my least favorite Phillie of all-time.

The teams that deserve a little love are few and far between...the Marlon Anderson/Mariano Duncan duo is impressive, but it's hard to root for a team that beat the Phils out of a playoff spot - I'm a sad, bitter man. Minnesota has a decent argument - I can't say I have anything against Nicky Punto or Carlos Silva. The Yankees have some guy named Abreu (I can't believe he only had 4 RBI in Game One...he is so "unclutch") and I'll root for him as much as I would if he were still a Phillie, but in the end my dislike of the Yankees wins out. Plus, it makes me happy to know that Jason Giambi still hasn't won a ring...

This leaves us with two teams that have little (San Diego) to no (Oakland) connections to the Phillies. Sure, the Padres have a coach who is an ex-Phillie, but who really cares? Plus they are like the Dodgers in that they beat out the Phils for a playoff spot...not cool, Pads, not cool. So we are left with Oakland...a team with no ex-Phillies, but a team that is ex-Philly. The Philadelphia Athletics connection, the great Billy Beane running the show, Frank Thomas showing that he is a first ballot HOFer, Rich Harden's intriguing storyline of returning from injury...the choice is clear - it's time to adopt Oakland for the '06 playoffs.

2006-10-04T13:39:00.000-04:00

Former Phillies organist Paul Richardson died on Monday [Phillies.com]. Hearing the organ playing at a baseball game makes no sense in theory if you stop and think about it, but the combination works together quite beautifully in practice. Listening to Paul Richardson on the organ during a visit to the Vet back in the early 90's is literally one of the earliest memories that I can recall. I was at Yankee Stadium over the weekend and one of the things I noticed was the way the Yanks still employ an organist to handle all of the pre-game music entertainment. It would be a fitting tribute if the Phillies decided to go back in time and begin to play nothing but organ music during the pre-game festivities at Citizens Bank Park once again.

Gone VORPin'

2006-10-03T20:16:00.000-04:00

Well, it’s that time of year again – time to fire up the hot stove (man, I hate that expression) and get this here website heavily involved in both reporting and commenting on the moves that my favorite baseball team makes over the autumn/winter months ahead. There are already plenty of things to delve into including news on the shake up on the Phils coaching staff, comments directly from Pat Gillick on the future of the organization, and a whole boatload of rumors found in the daily papers concerning potential player movement. Expect to see comments on all of those topics and more in the coming days. For now, check out this here rundown of the 2006 Philadelphia Phillies using the simple (too simple?) statistical measure of value over replacement player.

Well, what is VORP anyway? This is the definition as given by Baseball Prospectus: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense. [Baseball Prospectus]

I bolded the part about defense since that is something that shouldn’t be forgotten when evaluating these numbers. Howard is just behind Pujols in VORP, but Pujols’ lead in WARP-1 (Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season.) is more substantial because his superior defensive performance is taken into account. For simplicity’s sake, we’ll just focus on VORP and call it a day (format is given below):

Player – Position: 2006 VORP (fun fact!)

Key Phillies in ’06

Ryan Howard – 1B: 81.3 (second in baseball to Pujols, closest to Travis Hafner)

Chase Utley – 2B: 65.0 (fifteenth in baseball, closest to Manny Ramirez)

Jimmy Rollins – SS: 45.1 (42^nd in baseball, closest to Bill Hall, right behind Aramis Ramirez)

Brett Myers – SP: 40.8 (27^th in baseball amongst pitchers)

Geoff Geary – RP: 27.6 (63^rd in baseball amongst pitchers, five spots ahead of Billy Wagner)

Pat Burrell – OF: 27.4 (89^th in baseball, sandwiched between Kenny Lofton and Esteban German)

Bobby Abreu – OF: 25.3 (full season VORP is actually 48.5 when you add in his numbers with New York…that would put him in the top 35 in baseball between Andruw Jones and Paul Konerko)

Cole Hamels – SP: 22.9 (somehow listed at 23.4 in the listing of rookie pitchers…not sure which figure is the correct one)

David Dellucci – OF: 17.6

Tom Gordon – RP: 17.1

Rheal Cormier – RP: 16.9 (shockingly high from where I stand)

Chris Coste – C: 16.4 (18^th amongst rookie position players in baseball…wouldn’t it be a great story if somebody threw a Rookie of the Year award vote Coste’s way? Just one vote would be cool by me…)

Jon Lieber – SP: 14.0

Shane Victorino – OF: 12.0 (VORP is a counting stat, but as it turns out, Victorino and Rowand finished the year with a nearly identical number of plate appearances - in other words, Victorino’s superior numbers are no mirage…and this doesn’t factor in his better defense in CF)

Aaron Rowand – OF: 8.6

Mike Lieberthal – C: 7.0

Pat Gillick’s veteran acquisitions – luckily for the other fellas, Jamie Moyer was good enough for the whole lot of ‘em:

Jamie Moyer – SP: 9.4

Jeff Conine – OF: 0.3

Randall Simon – PH: -0.8

Jose Hernandez should also be in the discussion here, but because Blogger causes all of my other programs to freeze up, I can't check his VORP at the moment. No big loss, I suppose.

Rough Years

Ryan Madson – RP: -0.7 (Madson has had a weird start to his career: one phenomenal season, one slightly above average season, and now one horrible season…any guesses on what he does next year?)

Sal Fasano – C: -2.6

Gavin Floyd – SP: -10.9

Abraham Nunez – 3B: -18.3 (fourth to last in baseball, 1027^th overall, only ahead of Yadier Molina, Tomas Perez, and Clint Barmes – also keep in mind that Christian Guzman, he of the -14.9 VORP last year, missed the ’06 season due to injury)

I had an discussion with a friend prior to the season about the relative value of Clint Barmes as a baseball player. The friend was a big Barmes fan and happily drafted him to be his shortstop on his fantasy baseball team. I did my best to dissuade him, but he was convinced that Barmes was capable of putting up numbers like he did in the first half of 2005 (.329/.371/.516) if he could only stay healthy in ’06. Well it turns out that Barmes was literally the worst hitter in baseball this season. How about that? Hate to say I told you so, buddy…

What a horrible, irrelevant, wholly self-promoting way to end this piece...oh well, I can't think of anything better so it'll have to do for now.

2007

2006-10-03T11:40:00.000-04:00