Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Updated List of Abreu Trade Rumors Vol. 3

  1. Abreu to the Orioles for OF Jay Gibbons and LHP Eric Bedard
  2. Abreu to the Red Sox for OF Trot Nixon and RHP Matt Clement
  3. Abreu to the Yankees with C Mike Lieberthal for RHP Carl Pavano, C Jorge Posada and 3B Eric Duncan
  4. Abreu to the Cardinals for RHP Anthony Reyes and RHP Jason Marquis
  5. Abreu to the Blue Jays for CF Vernon Wells
  6. Abreu to the Giants for RHP Jason Schmidt
  7. Abreu to the Astros for RHP Chad Qualls and RHP Brandon Backe
  8. Abreu to the Dodgers with 3B David Bell for RHP Brad Penny OR RHP Derek Lowe
  9. Abreu to the Athletics with C Mike Lieberthal and SP Gavin Floyd for LHP Barry Zito and C Jason Kendall
  10. Abreu to the Orioles for SS Miguel Tejada
  11. Abreu to the Red Sox with OF Jason Michaels and SP Gavin Floyd for OF Manny Ramirez and SP Matt Clement
  12. Abreu to the White Sox with SP Gavin Floyd for SP Jose Contreras and OF Jermaine Dye
I know talking about rumored deals makes up just about 95% of what I have to say around here. It's what I do. I enjoy it. That being said, I'm not so sure I buy this rumored Abreu and Floyd for Contreras and Dye swap. The logic behind the deal makes sense for a few reasons 1) Kenny Williams, GM of the Sox, has long coveted Abreu, 2) Sox manager Ozzie Guillen is a native of Venezuela who has long standing personal ties to Bobby Abreu, 3) the Phillies have been after another starter all off season, and 4) the Sox have been reportedly shopping Contreras all offseason. The reasoning behind the pieces of this deal may all fit together at first glance, but the sum of all the parts does not necessarily lead me to conclude that a trade is in the works.

A GM is interested has coveted Abreu? Not necessarily a shocker. Guillen and Abreu are buddies? While this is absolutely valid and something to be considered, how much influence does a manager have on player acquisitions anyway? To be fair, Guillen seems to have more sway than most managers around the league (see Garcia, Freddy) and his insistence on a deal could push it over the top for the Sox. Ultimately it is the decision of the front office to decide on who comes and goes - the manager's opinion is considered, but the guys upstairs know that when it comes right down to it, it is their butts on the line.

It is true that the Phillies still desire pitching. It is also true that the White Sox have a surplus of starters. There could be a match here. The Phillies have made their quest of acquiring a "number one" starting pitcher public this offseason. Abreu is the big chip the team has in their efforts to land that number one. Is Contreras a number one starter? If the Phillies think so, we're all in far bigger trouble than I thought. Abreu for an ace is the only deal I would make - Contreras is not an ace. Dye sweetens the deal, but he isn't a good enough player for my tastes to get it done. Throwing Gavin Floyd in on top of that - now that's just crazy. The only way this deal makes sense is if you believe that the Phillies organization wants to rid themselves of some of the long term commitments given out by Ed Wade. I think Pat Gillick wants to do just that; this is what scares me about this current rumor.

This rumor is only in the beginning stages. It could die out completely (see the above list) or it could gain steam over the next few days. I'm willing to call this rumor the most interesting one involving Abreu this offseason - I've heard more arguments for accepting the White Sox package than I've expected. With so many people out there with conflicting opinions (so much having to do with conflicting opinions about the value of Bobby Abreu), it should be a very eventful couple of days ahead. Or not eventful at all. Either way.


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