Tuesday, July 25, 2006

The Phillies and the Deadline

Trade Deadline Focus
David Dellucci

The trade deadline is less than a week away, so it seems like as good a time as any to examine the many players on the Phillies roster that could be dealt between now and July 31st. Should the Phillies deal backup corner outfielder David Dellucci? Let's take a closer look:

Upside: Dellucci has established himself as the top second tier outfielder of this year’s trade market and in doing so has set the Phillies up in a situation where they can fetch a future contributor or two from a team in need of a short-term, low salary fix in the outfield.

Downside: There are plenty of reasons for the Phils to not trade Dellucci: he is cheap ($950,000), he is great insurance against a larger trade involving either Pat Burrell or Bobby Abreu, he will be arbitration eligible next season (meaning he’ll have the choice to accept an offer to stay with the Phillies and be relatively cheap again or he can decline and net the Phillies a draft pick or two for losing him)

Teams with Interest (both reported in the papers and reasonable guesses): Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals

Best Fits (in order): St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers…the Detroit Tigers are also hot on the Dellucci trail

Fair Value:

St. Louis

C Bryan Anderson
OF Cody Haerther
3B Travis Hanson
OF/1B John Gall – From this year’s Baseball Prospectus: “An added benefit to having Gall on the roster: frequent broadcast references to Alfred Kinsey, who got his start in biology by cataloguing the wasps that share the outfielder’s surname.” He also has killed lefties so far this year thus making him a fine potential platoon player at the big league level (at the very least).
LHP Tyler Johnson
C/IF/OF Randy Roth
OF Nick Stavinoha
LHP Eric Haberer
RHP Mark McCormick
RHP Brad Thompson
RHP Mark Worrell

New York Yankees

RHP Jeff Marquez
RHP Matt DeSalvo
RHP Tyler Clippard
RHP Colter Bean
RHP T.J. Beam
RHP Joshua Schmidt
RHP Jason Stephens
OF Kevin Thompson
OF Kevin Reese

Texas Rangers

C Gerald Laird
RHP Joaquin Benoit
RHP John Hudgins
3B Travis Metcalf
C Mike Nickeas
IF Tug Hulett
SS Joaquin Arias
RHP Wes Littleton
RHP Omar Beltre
OF Brandon Boggs
RHP Nathan Fogle
C/3B Emerson Frostad

My Deal: If I had to make a deal involving Dellucci, I’d see if I could pick two guys from each team out of the lists provided above and see who bites. When compiling those lists I was shocked how underrated the Texas Rangers farm system is. The Rangers continue to be a logical option for any Phillies trade in the next week as it appears Pat Gillick is very comfortable trading with Texas.

My ideal deal in the case of David Dellucci would be no deal at all. The prospect of hanging on to Dellucci for the remainder of 2006 is appealing in and of itself, but it gets even better when factoring in the benefit of draft pick compensation if he decided to leave after the season. Does anybody out there trust the Phillies to acquire prospects in a trade of Dellucci of equal value to players that they could potential grab with additional draft picks in the first two rounds of the ’07 draft? Hold on to Dellucci, maybe he plays a lot if Abreu or Burrell are deal, maybe he doesn’t – either way, he is ultimately worth more to the club in the long run if he leaves as a free agent than if they deal him now. Holding on to him also leaves open the possibility that he’ll opt to resign with the club after the season is over. Many fans have already decided that Dellucci hates it in Philly and can’t wait to get out of town, but a nice raise in salary plus the promise of more playing time has a way of convincing many a disgruntled athlete into sticking around.

Final Verdict: Keep Dellucci unless blown away by an offer.


Blogger Adam said...

Here's a wild rumor for ya:

Phillies send Tom Gordon to the Braves for Marcus Giles and/or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

It doesn't make sense, but it's just one of the many rumors going around these days.

Gordon would almost have to setup for Wickman, plus Giles, is he going to move to 3B? On the otherhand, Salty would be great pickup for the Phillies since they need a C. Overall, I can't see this deal happening because it's too bad for the Braves and too good for the Phillies.

2:51 PM  
Blogger XXX said...

I'd do that deal in a second if I was the Phillies. Before this year (and Saltalamacchia's struggles), I was even willing to consider some kind of Johnny Estrada/Kevin Millwood deal (catcher blocked by established starter at position for young emereging righthander) in reverse with the Braves - Brett Myers for Salty. Obviously Salty's stock has dipped this year, but he'd still be a great buy low guy for a team as thin at the catcher position like the Phillies.

Speaking of Braves catching...how about that Brian McCann? I know big things were expected out of him, but damn...he's been incredible this year. What a great building block for an organization to have.

10:37 AM  
Blogger Adam said...

Yea, McCann has really been impressive. The Braves have been extremely fortunate at Catcher. When Javy left after '03 I thought we would be back to the days of Damon Berryhill productivity. Estrada comes in for an All-Star year and now McCann has just been tearing it up. The only thing that concerns me is staying healthy as a catcher. Joe Mauer has had knee troubles, Delgado and Konerko had to change postions. Maybe I'm just getting too paranoid over it. Regardless, yes McCann is defintely a cornerstone of the future in Atlanta.

2:03 PM  

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