The Trade
So I said I was stunned and not in a good way.
Well after thinking about it for a little while, I feel a bit better...though I'm still not convinced this was the right deal to make. Freddy Garcia is all but guaranteed to throw 200+ innings of at worst league average ball - an especially valuable thing this day and age. Garcia is also a free agent after this season and will almost definitely be classified as a Type A player at season's end - even if he walks after '07 (which at this point would be best for all parties involved...but we have a year to go before really discussing this matter), the Phillies would receive draft pick compensation that should result in the addition of a prospect close to the quality of Gio Gonzalez. I like Gonzalez way more than most (he'd rank right up there with Carlos Carrasco as the top prospect in the organization...putting up the kind of numbers he did in AA at his age is something pretty special), but the Phillies have some degree of starting pitching depth in the minors where they could move a player of his quality. Gavin Floyd is, quite regrettably, a non-factor in this deal. Obviously the White Sox had interest in him, but he is not a player you can really afford to lose too much sleep over losing at this point - I was as big a Floyd fan as can be for a long while and I would have been ill to see him moved in a trade where the Phillies got nothing back in return...luckily, moving him for Garcia is an okay enough deal that I'm not ill to see him go. Forgive me from rambling somewhat incoherently from point to point, but it's late...that's my excuse and I'm sticking with it. The potential Myers-Hamels-Garcia-Eaton-Moyer rotation doesn't look so bad (though the Brett Myers trade talk has quietly begun...just a warning), so while the trade is not without major risk (mainly my fear that Gio becomes a star), it still improves the club greatly going into 2007.
It's nearly impossible to judge any kind of offseason transaction without considering the moves that will be made (or not made) because of it - the Garcia deal can not really be judged in a vacuum because it now changes the needs/wants of the Phillies going forward. It has been mentioned before that a deal with the White Sox for pitching would be the precursor to a Jon Lieber deal...if the Phillies can use their now expendable starter (Lieber) as the valuable trade chip that he has become (especially in this market) to acquire an impact bat for the outfield and/or an elite back of the bullpen arm, then things would begin to look up again. The Phillies also have the "problem" of having two big league quality center fielders - the thought of Shane Victorino and Aaron Rowand patrolling the outfield is too disheartening to entertain, so we'll assume the powers that be that run the Phils are smart enough to deal Rowand while the market for him exists. Rowand and Lieber both represent valuable trading chips...time for the Phillies to make their next big move.
Well after thinking about it for a little while, I feel a bit better...though I'm still not convinced this was the right deal to make. Freddy Garcia is all but guaranteed to throw 200+ innings of at worst league average ball - an especially valuable thing this day and age. Garcia is also a free agent after this season and will almost definitely be classified as a Type A player at season's end - even if he walks after '07 (which at this point would be best for all parties involved...but we have a year to go before really discussing this matter), the Phillies would receive draft pick compensation that should result in the addition of a prospect close to the quality of Gio Gonzalez. I like Gonzalez way more than most (he'd rank right up there with Carlos Carrasco as the top prospect in the organization...putting up the kind of numbers he did in AA at his age is something pretty special), but the Phillies have some degree of starting pitching depth in the minors where they could move a player of his quality. Gavin Floyd is, quite regrettably, a non-factor in this deal. Obviously the White Sox had interest in him, but he is not a player you can really afford to lose too much sleep over losing at this point - I was as big a Floyd fan as can be for a long while and I would have been ill to see him moved in a trade where the Phillies got nothing back in return...luckily, moving him for Garcia is an okay enough deal that I'm not ill to see him go. Forgive me from rambling somewhat incoherently from point to point, but it's late...that's my excuse and I'm sticking with it. The potential Myers-Hamels-Garcia-Eaton-Moyer rotation doesn't look so bad (though the Brett Myers trade talk has quietly begun...just a warning), so while the trade is not without major risk (mainly my fear that Gio becomes a star), it still improves the club greatly going into 2007.
It's nearly impossible to judge any kind of offseason transaction without considering the moves that will be made (or not made) because of it - the Garcia deal can not really be judged in a vacuum because it now changes the needs/wants of the Phillies going forward. It has been mentioned before that a deal with the White Sox for pitching would be the precursor to a Jon Lieber deal...if the Phillies can use their now expendable starter (Lieber) as the valuable trade chip that he has become (especially in this market) to acquire an impact bat for the outfield and/or an elite back of the bullpen arm, then things would begin to look up again. The Phillies also have the "problem" of having two big league quality center fielders - the thought of Shane Victorino and Aaron Rowand patrolling the outfield is too disheartening to entertain, so we'll assume the powers that be that run the Phils are smart enough to deal Rowand while the market for him exists. Rowand and Lieber both represent valuable trading chips...time for the Phillies to make their next big move.
posted by XXX at 12:50 AM
3 Comments:
I like this deal because it basically forces the Phillies to trade lieber to improve other weaknesses. Garcia > lieber. Getting rid of floyd brings me suprisingly great joy. I just couldn't take his scared/nervous look all the time on that mound. Losing Gonzalez is depressing but (fingers crossed) he might become a bust....doubtful though
Read a rumor that the Nats and Phils may swap Ryan's. Madson for Church. I would take a gamble on Church. Wasn't he runner up to ROY two years ago?
I do not understand why people are so high on Victorino and so low on Rowand. I personally believe that Rowand should start in center and that Victorino should be the back-up fourth outfielder. It amazes me that Victorino can somehow make contact with that prissy swing of his. I believe Rowand is a more appropriate CF for the Phillies. If for some reason, Uncle Charlie decides to use Victorino in center, Rowand has experience in Right. However, Rightfield is a power hitting position, which leads me to go back to my initial observation - Victorino should be the fourth outfielder.
The Phillies do not need to trade Rowand now to get the necessary RH power bat the team needs. Instead, I would say the Phillies need to make the Brewers deal work out - Lieber for Mench and Turnbow. Though it would mean acquiring a Pat Burrell clone in RF, I believe this deal has the Phillies acquiring another power bat to protect Ryan Howard. (Likewise, what is wrong with 25 HR's and 75 RBI'S?)
I believe the need is still third base. Wes Helms is a good utility player, but not an everyday 3B. Nunez stinks like my smelly gym socks.
Additionally, the Phillies need an everyday catcher. I am a little saddened to see that Bengi Molina has signed. I believe he would have been an appropriate replacement for Lieberthal. I do not believe Ruiz is major league ready in the hitting department. I do not believe Coste is anything more than a utility C/1B/3B. The Phillies really need a Catcher.
Further, the team needs to acquire another few RP's (I'm sorry a side arming 27 year old who just finished AA or AAA is not my idea of a capable RP).
Lastly, the Phillies need to acquire a utility infielder, who can play both SS and 2B.
However, if the Phillies are able to come about with the Lieber deal, the team is moving in the right direction:
C - NEEDS (Ruiz, Coste)
1B - Howard, Helms
2B - Utley
SS - Rollins
3B - NEEDS (Nunez, Helms)
RF - Mench
CF - Rowand, Victorino
LF - Burrell
SP - Garcia, Myers, Moyer, Eaton, Hamels (1-5)
RP - Turnbow, Madson, Gordon
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