Tuesday, January 23, 2007

The Utley Deal Revisited

Lots of good stuff to come, but for now we have more on the Chase Utley signing. The more I think about it, the more I like it - Tom Tango broke it down in numbers:

Utley: 7/85, paying for 4.5 WAR.

Is Utley crazy? What and incredibly stupid signing by Utley, and a brilliant signing by the Phillies.

Where to begin? Utley is an excellent hitter. Not the top end, but the set right below that. He’s +3 wins above average.

As for his fielding, the Fans love him, Dewan loves him. He’s got to be +1 win above the average 2B.

I’m also harsh on 2B compared to others, and I treat it as a neutral position (like 3B). No bonus points for being able to play 2B.

Overall, he’s +4 wins above average, meaning +6 wins above replacement. The Phillies paid him like he’s +4.5 WAR (or +2.5 wins above average).

Chase Utley deserved a 7/135 deal, including an arbitration discount for the 1st three years. (Otherwise, he would have warranted a 7/164 deal.) He accepted 85 million, meaning he left 50 million$ on the table. Which Carlos Lee somehow managed to take.

By the numbers, the Phillies risky re-signing of Chase Utley doesn't look so risky after all. I can't really put into words how positive I am that this was a good move by the Phillies, but trust me on this one - it was a stroke of genius.


Blogger Adam said...

Great deal for the Phils. Locking up the future now is something that benefits everyone; fans, players, etc. Any chance the same could be done for Ryan Howard in a couple of years?

11:20 AM  
Blogger Skeeter said...

This deal is remarkable.

I am, however, nervous that Howard won't get anything this small. In my opinion, Utley is the more valuable player but Howard will get paid more. Both incredible talents though

11:33 AM  
Blogger XXX said...

Agreed on all fronts - though re-signing Howard in the future will be an interesting thing to watch.

I hate to say it, but considering Howard's position (1B), age (27), and service time (still under club control for 4 more seasons) it may be prudent for the Phillies to go year-to-year with him. I know this will never happen and for good reason too - the PR nightmare that would ensue is honestly not worth the trouble (I know that sounds crazy, but this is a business and a commitment to winning is worth something).

12:44 AM  

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