The Utley Deal Revisited
Utley: 7/85, paying for 4.5 WAR.
Is Utley crazy? What and incredibly stupid signing by Utley, and a brilliant signing by the Phillies.
Where to begin? Utley is an excellent hitter. Not the top end, but the set right below that. He’s +3 wins above average.
As for his fielding, the Fans love him, Dewan loves him. He’s got to be +1 win above the average 2B.
I’m also harsh on 2B compared to others, and I treat it as a neutral position (like 3B). No bonus points for being able to play 2B.
Overall, he’s +4 wins above average, meaning +6 wins above replacement. The Phillies paid him like he’s +4.5 WAR (or +2.5 wins above average).
Chase Utley deserved a 7/135 deal, including an arbitration discount for the 1st three years. (Otherwise, he would have warranted a 7/164 deal.) He accepted 85 million, meaning he left 50 million$ on the table. Which Carlos Lee somehow managed to take.
By the numbers, the Phillies risky re-signing of Chase Utley doesn't look so risky after all. I can't really put into words how positive I am that this was a good move by the Phillies, but trust me on this one - it was a stroke of genius.
posted by XXX at 12:23 AM
3 Comments:
Great deal for the Phils. Locking up the future now is something that benefits everyone; fans, players, etc. Any chance the same could be done for Ryan Howard in a couple of years?
This deal is remarkable.
I am, however, nervous that Howard won't get anything this small. In my opinion, Utley is the more valuable player but Howard will get paid more. Both incredible talents though
Agreed on all fronts - though re-signing Howard in the future will be an interesting thing to watch.
I hate to say it, but considering Howard's position (1B), age (27), and service time (still under club control for 4 more seasons) it may be prudent for the Phillies to go year-to-year with him. I know this will never happen and for good reason too - the PR nightmare that would ensue is honestly not worth the trouble (I know that sounds crazy, but this is a business and a commitment to winning is worth something).
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